Also, the timeframe a risk will emerge is unpredictable. Claiming all is going to be just fine and ridiculing any discussion and analysis to be looking into any quantum resistant solutions is a huge risk. Some very creddible organisations advice to take this serious:
NSA: "prepare for the upcoming quantum resistant algorithm transition.”
National Academy of Sciences: Even if the threat might materialize later: prepare now.
NIST: There is unlikely to be a simple “drop-in” replacement for our current public-key cryptographic algorithms. "this transition needs to take place well before any large-scale quantum computers are built"
PQCrypto (EU) "figure these things out before somebody builds a quantum computer"
This is what people with knowedge on the subject say about that article.
This is an article rebutting the article you just posted.
These are prediction from creddible companies in the field:
Intel: “It should be about 5 years to 1000 qubit chips with superconducting technology. It should be about 10 years to million qubit chips.”
Google: “And a million-physical-qubit system, whose general computing applications are still difficult to even fathom? It’s conceivable, says Neven, “on the inside of 10 years.” “ (That is Harmut Neven of Google’s quantum computing effort)
IBM believes quantum computers will be mainstream in 5 years. (Meaning outside of research labs, but not necessarily in livingrooms of the average Joe. And no amount of qubits mentioned though)
Microsoft: “Five years from now, we will have a commercial quantum computer,” says Microsoft’s Holmdahl.
And those are just the commercial companies. The pentagon sees quantum computing as the next arms race. China is about to pump $10 Billion in a research centre. They won’t be open about their developments as Google etc. It’s not a bad idea to start looking for solutions and new opportunities in blockchain.
This paper estimates ECDSA being at risk as soon as 2027.
Also, the timeframe a risk will emerge is unpredictable. Claiming all is going to be just fine and ridiculing any discussion and analysis to be looking into any quantum resistant solutions is a huge risk. Some very creddible organisations advice to take this serious: