r/nba•
Retroesque

Is Kawhi Leonard the Best Player in the League?

With Kawhi leading the raptors to their first championship, there's been a lot of discussion of how great a player he is (deservedly so). In this realm, there's even been talks of him being the best player in the world, and while it may not be a consensus, it is not an unpopular opinion to hold right now.

Even with myself trying as hard as possible to affirm this notion, It's almost impossible for me to think that he is the best.

I'll lay out why I think so, and maybe I am making mistakes in my own rationale and hopefully that will be pointed out.

Also, to preface: I do not care about accolades, legacy, "clutchness" or any other buzzword. I care about impact and who could increases a teams chance to win the most.

Accolades do nothing for me. They are extremely subjective and context driven. Him not winning an mvp doesn't concern me the same way him winning 2 FMVP's doesn't concern me.

Legacies are just narratives, and with how much this sub likes to shit on Skip Bayless and Max Kellerman, it indulges in the same narratives they built their careers on.

Being clutch is not relevant to me. I will never evaluate a player on one game, let alone a couple of shots missed/made in a quarter.

Strengths

Offense

His greatest strength at the moment is definitely his isolation scoring. His first step is quite good, and his strength allows him to create seperation and/or finish at the rim. His mid-range is good, scoring at 0.91 PPP in the playoffs, but his finishing at the rim is amazing at 1.37 PPP.

However, his prowess in this regards may be a bit overstated. He was in the 61st percentile in isolation (17.6% FREQ) scoring these playoffs, behind KD at 66th percentile (20% FREQ), James Harden at a crazy 76th percentile given the volume (47% FREQ) and Stephen Curry at an impressive 97th percentile albeit with low volume (9% FREQ).

Because this statistic doesn't necessarily account for opponent defense, and is a smaller sample size, it's harder to draw many conclusions from this. It is clear however that Kawhi is an elite isolation scorer, but may not have an argument for being a top 3-4 isolation scorer.

His general ability to draw fouls is valuable, coupled with his strong spot-up shooting makes him extremely versatile. These two skills would be very valuable in any offense, especially one with contemporaries (LeBron?).

Defense

His man defense has always been great. He has a long wingspan and huge hands, making him a constant pest to the ballhandler. His lateral quickness is elite, and he rarely gets beat by wing-players in this regards. He has enough length to recover when beat, and his help defense is quite good as well.

Weaknesses

Offense

His glaring weakness seems to be his passing ability and vision. His strong isolation game forces teams to double team him which subsequently creates opportunities for his teammates. The problem is that he regularly cannot punish these choices due to his poor vision.

His player archetype rarely (subpar passer, strong isolation scorer) leads all-time level offenses, which is indicative of the importance of passing and creating. While his resilient scoring is very valuable in raising a teams floor, his ball-pounding iso style make it hard for me to rate his offense higher.

We can see that the effect of his offense didn't drastically improve the raptors offense in the postseason. They went from a rORTG of -1.2 last season to a rORTG of 1.4 these playoffs.

Defense

Although his defense has always been quite exceptional, his performance on that end these playoffs was somewhat disappointing. He was the 6th best defender on his own team according the PIPM (0.4 D-PIPM). This may be slightly noisy, but I feel like this makes more sense in context. It is clear that his defense has suffered due to his increased offensive load, which is understandable. However, his reputation as a DPOY has definitely carried the perception of his performance on that end. I think it is inarguable that the reason the raptors are great is because of their defense. I also think it is inarguable that Kawhi was not the explicit reason the defense was so great. It is definitely a mix between amazing performances from Pascal, Ibaka and Gasol (1.6 D-PIPM, 1.6 D-PIPM and 1.9 D-PIPM respectively) and a great effort from everyone else.

Contemporaries

LeBron James

With LeBron being injured, the best player in the world conversation opens up a lot. His ability to pressure defenses with his scoring + passing makes him the best floor-raiser in history.

His strong post-game also makes him versatile, and allows him to play with more talented players.

LeBron, despite some narratives, continues to be a postitive defender. His man-defense is quite good, and his rim-protection, while inconsistent, has shown to be valuable in help instances. He's clearly past his defensive prime, mainly due to age and offensive load, but he is far from a negative defender.

If he was healthy and performed around the level we expect from LeBron, he would easily have an argument for number one.

Stephen Curry

Obviously, I'm a massive Stephen Curry fan. With LeBron being injured, I believe Curry is the best player in the world. His ability to space the floor, score w/ all-time level efficiency, and punish teams for doubling/trapping makes him the premier offensive player in today's nba. His multi-year PIPM is 7.38 highest in the league, his 5-year RAPM is also the highest in the league at 12.13, with LeBron and CP3 not too far behind.

These playoffs he took a limited offensive team without Durant to a rORTG of +4.3, which was the best in the playoffs. This speaks to his ability to a raise the floor of a team, and coupled with the fact that he is one of the greatest ceiling raisers ever (has led offensive dynasty) gives him a strong argument for the best player in the league.

Kevin Durant

KD was having a monster playoffs this year before getting injured. His offensive skillset makes him extremely valuable. His ability to space the floor and spot-up shoot makes him versatile. He also is arguably the premier isolation scorer in the nba, next to James Harden.

While his passing is not great, it is not necessarily bad. He passes in the PnR and post with good skill, but suffers passing out of double teams. However, it is harder to rate his passing because he rarely gets trapped in Golden State.

When KD came to golden state, he turned a 67 SRS team into a 73 SRS team. He effectively made an all-time level team into the greatest ever, which speaks to his ceiling raising capabilities.

Conclusion

While Kawhi had a great playoff run, I think it's time to pump the breaks on the best player conversation. His scoring, while all-time great, didn't really translate to team offense and his defense has also been overstated these playoffs.

Compared to his peers, like KD, Steph and LeBron, his affect on offense isn't nearly as profound. If his defense was at his old level, I would easily entertain this conversation, but with how things are now, I don't see the argument for him being the best in the world.

Also, I apologize for the lack of effort towards the end lol. This shits hard man. Definitely appreciate some of the good OC's on this sub a lot more now.

NOTES:

A lot this came from Ben Taylor's new video on the top 10 players in the nba. His methodology is really grounded, and I've never seen an such an in-depth analysis of a top 10 list. I highly recommend watching this video, and reading his other works like his top 40 GOAT list.

While I disagree with some of his placings (AD at 4, LeBron at 6), this list was never about the exact placing of the players. It's more about the rationale of evaluating players, which is much more valuable than just rankings.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93zief7g2Jk

I'd also appreciate some criticisms of my writing style, formatting, rationale, etc...

Posted Jun 15, 2019, 11:29 PM UTC

050
wredmo•

No that’s Al Farouq Aminu

28
DarthBane6996Knicks•

The disrespect to my man Tony Snell

4
anacondra•

The Shadowking from XMen?

3
[deleted]•

[deleted]

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StanleydidntstutterLakers•

I still think it's Bron but you could make the argument

26
sop1232Raptors•

I give him the slight edge now because of his defense and the fact that he can lead a team to victory without being on a superteam.

1
MemeMeOnceRaptors•

Zion's in the league bro

15
03notnarbjTimberwolves•

Thank you someone had to say it

2
Funkyfreshprince•

Love Kawhi

I still think it's Lebron, Lebron been doing it for over a decade and consistently carrying his team and being the best player in playoffs. Had a down year due to injury and young team.

If he doesnt do well this upcoming season then I'd say Kawhi/Durant etc are the new best players in the world

8
AssSkratchumCavaliers•

No but he is second behind Bron

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brownjesus__[TOR] DeMar DeRozan•

IMO Lebron is #1, Steph is #2, and Kawhi is #3

That's just my opinion though

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driverx22Celtics•

This is fair. I’ll allow it.

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Future_NovelistSupersonics•

It's Lebron until he plays shitty in the playoffs.

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Varnagel_1NBA•

Great post

2
thisguy2164Thunder•

There could be an argument made but I think it's 1. LeBron then 2. Kawhi

2
PrinceOfDokkan•

It's like asking if your an ass or titties guy, at this current moment both guys are 1a and 1b in any order you see fit

2
Teukkabasketball•

watched that video couple of days ago and it's fucking trash. Lebron at 6th got me suspicious and Kawhi at 5th got me laughing my ass off.

Basketball is not only statistics, you simply can't prove what happens on the court based on only statistics and analytics. You need to actually watch the games and understand it.

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RetroesqueOP[GSW] Stephen Curry•

So like do you have an argument or

-2
Teukkabasketball•

Giannis scored 22ppg against Raptors and lost in 6 games. Kawhi scored 30ppg. They both got double and triple teamed but Kawhi can dribble off of it, shoot over it etc. Giannis can only score in the paint but not when it's stacked. He can make couple threes in the game but isn't comfortable shooting. You are saying as of now Giannis is second best player in the world and Kawhi is 5th? What was that series outcome? Which one was better player in that series? Btw KD at third and Steph first is disgraceful. KD is best scorer in the game and much more valuable defender. I understand Steph's gravity on offense but that is not enough to put him #1. We can talk another time about statistics and how they favors big men.

1
RetroesqueOP[GSW] Stephen Curry•

They both got double and triple

Kawhi was not getting tripled.

Giannis was getting a 1v1 at the perimeter and then a 3v1 at the rim.

What was that series outcome? Which one was better player in that series?

Is Kyrie better than Steph because of 2016? If you're evaluating players on ONE series than you're losing me here.

Giannis has flaws. We all know this. Ben even admits this, saying he doesn't have an argument for top 3-4 offensive player, and I wholly agree. But Kawhi doesn't either. Kawhi marginally increased the raptors postseason offense w/ better offensive weapons.

Giannis played DPOY defense. He was absolutely amazing on that end, and was creating enough opportunities for his teammates to generate offense. If Eric Bledsoe shot like an average player, they would have won that series. This is the exact problem with evaluating players based on one series.

KD is best scorer in the game and much more valuable defender.

He's not a much more valuable defender. His man defense is pretty good but his help defense has never been that great. He regularly doesn't box-out and makes defensive mistakes. KD is a good defender but his value on defense isn't supported by the eye-test nor statistics.

I understand Steph's gravity on offense but that is not enough to put him #1.

It is. His offensive output is game changing. He's one of the most scalable players ever. He has almost no offensive weaknesses. Every single advanced stat paints as him the best offensive player in the league, and even the best player in the league.

We can talk another time about statistics and how they favors big men.

Is that why Steph/LeBron/CP3 crush advanced stats?

And big men tend to be the best players in the league, historically.

1
Teukkabasketball•

Kawhi was not getting tripled.

Go and watch again how much he got attention in the paint.

Giannis was getting a 1v1 at the perimeter and then a 3v1 at the rim.

He can make the right read but he forced and made lots of turnovers.

Is Kyrie better than Steph because of 2016? If you're evaluating players on ONE series than you're losing me here.

No but he out performed him and when the stakes are highest it should have bigger effects to these kind of lists than statistics. Nba is about winning.

Giannis played DPOY defense. He was absolutely amazing on that end, and was creating enough opportunities for his teammates to generate offense. If Eric Bledsoe shot like an average player, they would have won that series. This is the exact problem with evaluating players based on one series.

Kawhi played DPOY defense on Giannis and created opportunities for his teammates. He had 9 assits one game and they all led to threes. Eric Bledsoe is 20% on catch and shoot threes this year.

It is. His offensive output is game changing. He's one of the most scalable players ever. He has almost no offensive weaknesses. Every single advanced stat paints as him the best offensive player in the league, and even the best player in the league.

Who do you give ball when you need a bucket? Who has usually ball in his hands in the clutch? Curry had wide open shot in the clutch in game 6 against Raptors what happened? When we are talking in absolute terms, KD's has a game changing ability to get a bucket. Advanced stats doesn't help you in the clutch when game is slowed down and you need a bucket.

Is that why Steph/LeBron/CP3 crush advanced stats?

And big men tend to be the best players in the league, historically.

Was intended to say how defensive statistics favors big men. You wasn't so cleaver you thought you would be.

Enjoy reading statistics and advanced stats, I will enjoy watching games again next season.

0
DangerFrancis[LAC] Lance Stephenson•

Have we all already forgotten Matthew Dellavedova's historic 2016 finals campaign.

2
friggen_epicRaptors•

Bron and Kawhi any order. KD would be there too if it wasn't for the injury.

2
vullnet123[CHI] Cameron Payne•

This is a really long post that I'm not gonna read but you chose the worst time to post it lol

1
RetroesqueOP[GSW] Stephen Curry•

lol I probably did didn't I

5
BorrumLakers•

Repost it in a week for sure. Or to r/nbadiscussion

2
The_Natural_LogRaptors•

Yes. But you didn't hear it from me.

0†

No. We wouldn’t be having this debate if Durant never got injured

0†
rando1817Pistons•

I think he is right now

0
HotBananaaTimberwolves•

If everyone in the NBA is 100% healthy I’m still taking Lebron over anyone. He’s a walking 27/7/7, he’s the best passer in the NBA and he can get to the rim anytime he wants. I’ll take a healthy Lebron over anyone

Lebron
KD
Kawhi
Steph
AD

That’s the top 5 when everyone is 100% healthy.

Giannis is great but he can’t shoot. That’s a huge flaw that got exposed.

Harden disappears from big games and when He’s hot he’s amazing and when he’s off he is fucking awful.

0†
chode0311Rockets•

Curious. Why AD over Harden?

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HotBananaaTimberwolves•

Because he’s way better defensively. Harden only impacts the game offensively and when he’s chucking up threes and not hitting them he’s terrible. Even if AD is terrible offensively he can impact the game defensively.

-2
chode0311Rockets•

So why over a course of 7 seasons, with zero 1st, 2nd and 3rd all NBA teamates and 0 all-stars had Harden led the Rockets to the 3rd most wins including the playoffs including 5 50 win seasons, 1 60 win season and 6 playoff series victories while AD made the playoffs twice with only one career playoff series victory and 0 50 win seasons with arguably more talent around him?

Harden no matter the team around him seems to be a walking elite offense as he always leads a top 5 offensive efficient team.

You are seriously discrediting Harden's offensive game by saying that he only shoots threes. He's the league's best penetrator to the rim and one of the best passers in the league. He also had the ability to get anywhere on the court with his ball handling.

3
HotBananaaTimberwolves•

Because over the course of 7 seasons Harden has continuously choked in big moments. I’m not going to argue with you. I’m not going to convince a rockets fan so it’s pointless to argue. This is my opinion and if you don’t like it that’s fine, I don’t care.

-4
Davidson30[GSW] Stephen Curry•

Agree with you, but poor timing

0
Xfactor101•

Yes

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[deleted]•

[removed]

1