Our likely draft target for #8 overall on Friday.
Well. So much for that research. Good luck to our handsome new prospect, Philip Broberg.
Posted Jun 20, 2019, 9:02 AM UTC · edited
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I'm 90% sure we're hoping Cole Caufield falls to us at #8.
Hey thanks for the thorough post. What has you so confident the oilers want caufield? Everything i’ve read/heard is that the oilers pass on the player because he carries too much risk.
Paraphrasing what seems to be consensus to me from local pundits and places like theathletic, my understanding is the oilers draft list might look like the following:
- (Kakko/Hughes) - pointless to talk about
- (Turcotte / Bryam) - nearly pointless, sprint to the podium if available.
- (Dach, Cozens, Zegras) - draft if available
- (Broberg) - Oilers rank him highly as BPA and draft assuming the above 7 are gone.
- (Caufield, Podkolzin) - risky picks, different reasons
- (Krebs, Boldy) - Ranked outside 8 but I think close, with Krebs being maybe a bit closer.
I avoided putting my personal opinions in the above.
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Caufield fits exactly what we need. He's a right shot, right winger who can score goals. He currently has the all time record for goals for the USDP. He had 72 goals in 64 games this past season. Yes he's small but he's stocky and can score. A great comparible is Alex DeBrincat. Caufield's skating is better than DeBrincat's ever was though. If Caufield forces a turnover in his own end, he explodes up the ice in transition, which fits well with McDavid and Drai who do the same thing. He has great stickhandling and he fires a hard, accurate shot. He's super competitive and is really hard for opponents to play against. We really need a scoring RW, and that's exactly what Caufield is.
The only drawback is that his focus isn't on playmaking, but when a player is this good at scoring goals, and our team already has 3 forwards with some of the best playmaking ability in the NHL, he doesn't need to be. The kid plays hard in all 3 zones and he's going to be a great NHL'er. If he's still available at our draft position, I'm confident he'd be our best option.
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I think you're over estimating Caufield skating ability. I think he's got some agility for sure but I don't see the explosion up the ice you are talking about.
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That's the narrative I've seen as well. From what I've read his scoring ability is in a class of it's own. According to his coach (sorry I don't have the reference) he talked about Caufield not sniping corners consistently but there being a constant "ding" when going on during practice where he was sniping bars. I don't know how biased that is but it seems pretty unanimous that he's an exceptionally gifted scorer.
The risk as I understand it comes two fold. It's not just his size, which obviously is still a negative, but that he's too unidimensional. His skating is above average but not exceptional. Likewise he's not really a passer/playmaker. I don't know much about the defensive side of his game.
Throw in that he played with the most dominant USHTDP group in history, it adds to the question marks.
I don't disagree with OP that if the stars align, as the league continues to get smaller/faster, passing on Caufield may mean some serious regret in the years to come. This kid could be magic but I don't know if the Oiler's will take the risk.
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Hmm I can't disagree that I'd be extremely excited to watch Caufield developing as an oilers prospect. This draft I have to admit is significantly more confusing for me than others and I don't have a clear favourite.
I hadn't heard anything about Broberg until Holland came over. My initial reaction was negative but the more I read and looked into him, the more intrigued I got as well. He draws comparisons to Hughes in terms of speed and is the fastest D in the draft. He's still developing as a D having only switched over from forward 3 years ago. His upside apparently is #1D which as we've learned, it's extremely difficult to trade for and you have to draft.
I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the oilers organization at this point. I think if they go the route of drafting a D, the longer play is coming in here. We've got a group of D prospects coming through the pipeline where this would reload development time again. In this case I'm sure the plan is to fill in forward depth in the future by trading.
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If Cozens is still available, the Oilers better not pass on him for Broberg.
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I agree, the Oilers would be crazy to pass on any of these players for Broberg. I wouldn't worry about Button's mock draft. The guy spends a lot of time looking into amateur players but he's notoriously bad at actually pairing up which player should go to which team.
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I'm just crossing my fingers that one of Dach or cozens drops to us. I would be thrilled. Caulfield is probably a good pick but I'm just so worried about the size factor. I know it's probably irrational but I just can't shake it.
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Size isn't important in today's NHL unless it's completely absent from your team. We have plenty of big players who can wrestle for pucks and dominate space. We could use a guy who can still stickhandle in the tight spaces, which we lost when we lost Eberle. Small players can do quite well in today's NHL. The obvious comparable is DeBrincat, but there's also guys like Patrick Kane and Johnny Gaudreau. With our roster, there's no reason why Caufield's smaller height would be a problem. He's also stocky and strong, so he's more of a pinball than a pipsqueak.
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It feels pretty safe to say that Byram, Dach, and Turcotte will be off the board when we pick.
For me it's Zegras > Boldy > Cozens > Caufield/Newhook.
I'd be really happy with one of Zegras or Boldy, I'm confident one will be available.
Zegras is a great playmaking C with lots of creativity. Boldy is a fantastic 2-way winger with size, a great shot, great hands, and underrated vision. His skating is a work in progress (went from being a weak point to adequate), but it's something that has improved over the course of the year.
There are worries about Cozen's hockey IQ. I think there's some merit to this, but it's largely overblown. He'll be an effective winger in the NHL imo.
As for Caufield, I don't hate the pick. I guess I just prefer players with a range of tools. Newhook is great. We don't quite know how high his ceiling is because of his quality of competition. But it wouldn't surprise me to see him be one of the top 5 C's of the draft after having a couple years in the NCAA to polish his overall game (similar to Boldy).
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Bodly is quite good, but imo he's a rung below Cozens/Zegras/Caufield who are all around the same range (imo) in terms of value to an NHL club. I'd say he probably goes just outside of the top 10, but still a really good pick. Newhook is in a similar category to Boldy as best I can tell. Really good player but just outside the top 10. Personally I'd rather take RW Bobby Brink over either of them if for some reason the Oilers were drafting in the 11-14 range because I think his ceiling is higher and he fits our team better.
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Sooooo... This aged well
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My big board. Can explain any particular order if anyone would like.
Unattainable can't miss prospects
1.Hughes/Kakko
Close to as can't miss as you can get but very unlikely to be there
2.Turcotte/Byram (most complete players in the draft after the top 2)
Likely picks imo:
3.Cozens (speed, right shot, high iq and good shooting ability ideal winger in top 6)
4.Podkolzin (2 years isn't anything in terms of prospect development and he's too skilled to slip to the late 1st)
5.Dach/Boldy/zegras (like all of them for different reasons, I'm not as high on Dach as most are, Zegras could be the best of the bunch but I think Boldy fits our needs much better than the other 2)
6.Caufield (pure sniper but doesn't bring much to else, goals are needed so I'm fine with this pick but it's not my favorite.
Not a big fan unless we trade down a few spots:
7.Soderstrom (2 way rhd, most likely the best D behind Byram)
8.Broberg (his skating is really something but lacking a big enough shot to really be a #1 option on the PP and lacking decision making to have a good shot at being a number #1 5v5 D. Maybe others are seeing something different but to me he's not well rounded enough to be taken in the top 8 of the draft, if the Oilers like him I'd like to see a trade down.
9.Kaliyev: too early to take him. Shouldn't be gone before 13 at the earliest
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Is nobody talking about Boldy? Kid is gonna be a stud
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People are definitely talking about Boldy, but he's likely to go in the 10-14 range rather than the 6-10 range.
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Please not Broberg at 8. There'll be at least one skilled forward available at 8
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Anyone who watches Dach in the WHL playoffs this year would have to admit that he stepped up in the big games. He was an absolute force, and the main reason the blades nearly beat P.A.,
I’d say there’s no way he drops, his size and skill level are elite qualities, I’ll be shocked if he makes it out of the top 5, let alone to 8.
I’m hoping one of Cozens or Zegras can fall to us. I think it’s very like Caufield will be available. We just don’t have the prospect pool to take the risk on the boom/bust factor.
I'd have a very hard time seeing how Caufield could be a bust. He is such a talented scorer that he will definitely score goals well at the NHL level. The real question is if he'll score goals at/around the pace of someone like Stamkos/DeBrincat/Skinner/Arvidsson or if it'll be more like T. Johnson/Kreider/DeBrusk/Palmieri.
Barring a freak career threatening injury or massive problems in his personal life, the guy is going to be an NHL scorer. The question is just how good of one he'll be. Either way, whether he ends up as an a-list scorer or a b/c-list scorer, we could use any of the players from the above lists, and I'm confident his floor isn't any lower than that.
We passed on DeBrincat when he was available to us at 32 o/a in his draft year, we'd be crazy to pass on Caufield if he's available to us at 8 OA this year. The kid has the potential to be even better than ADB.
I agree about not having the luxury of being able to take the risk on a boom/bust player. Yamamoto and JP are our top forward prospects (is JP still a prospect even...) and we don't know if they'll be permanent fixtures in our top 6 yet.
Let alone we don’t even know if they will be contributing NHL players, I would argue, not even argue really, the Bouchard is far and away our top prospect. We have a lot of maybes on D. But with Pulju likely gone, Yamamoto and Benson as iffy forward prospects, we need a top end forward prospect. It will be a huge miss if we don’t do that this draft
Absolutely. If our scouts are pushing a D prospect at our draft position with our team needs, their uhh... employment status needs to be evaluated.
I read somewhere that people have samorukov ahead of bouch in terms of prospect ranking right now, but that may have been just NHL readiness and not overall quality, I can't remember
I'll be honest, I have a lot more faith in Benson panning out after how this last year went. He was the only player on the Condors who played all 68 games. He should have won rookie of the year in the AHL. I have a lot less faith in Yamamoto though, he looked good to start, but now he's not looking so shiny.
Yeah Dach is the player in this year's draft who, if he harnesses his abilities and can play at his top level consistently, may possibly end up being the better NHL'er than the consensus 1/2. He's really the only prospect you can say that about. When he's on, he's REALLY on. The question is why he's inconsistent, and if he can iron that out of his game. If it's a team like Chicago that has a history of doing well with young players, then yeah I'd say take him. For us though, who knows.
I'd say he'd be a riskier pick for us than any of Caufield/Cozens/Zegras, just because of our track record. The worry I have is that he might be like Dylan Strome. Did poorly with Phoenix, did fantastic with Chicago.