Source
r/ukpolitics•
TheExplodingKitten

The mystery remains, why did Alexander Johnson prorogue parliament?

Now most of the drama from the (first) prorogation has moved on, it's normally a good time to look at the facts. The fact of the matter is, we still don't actually know why parliament was prorogued.

The theory is of course to limit parliamentary time, but parliamentary time for what? UQs? PMQs? The domestic abuse bill?

There was no brexit work to be done. Parliament doesn't do any brexit work, they wait for the government to come back with something to vote on and they vote on it. But Alexander was not going to come up with serious proposals until the end of the Tory party conference anyway. All sides knew this, including the EU. He would also have to hold a vote in parliament on his deal anyway, giving MPs time to reject it or put in new legislation to compel Alexander to ask for an extension.

What about stopping no-deal? This also doesn't add up. Not only were opposition MPs easily able to put legislation in place before the start of prorogation, they could always put it in place after. They could compel Alexander to ask for an extension after prorogation as well.

It's not like Alexander prorogued from 15th October to 15th of November. He wasn't trying to close parliament during October 31st. The theory simply does not add up. Unless Alexander has some grievance with the domestic abuse bill, it simple does not make sense why he actually prorogued parliament for any obvious practical reason to further his brexit agenda.

An alternative theory is that it was a Cummings-style strategy to whip up anger among remainers and opposition parties, provoking them to fight back, to take to the streets and airwaves. This achieves three things (off the top of my head but probably achieved more):

  1. Provoked opposition parties to take control of parliamentary agenda, allowing number 10 to remove the whip from pesky remainer rebels that they didn't want onside for an election, muddying their message and being a thorn in the side in parliament.

  2. Pushed the more, let's say zealous, remainers onto the streets and airwaves in turn whipping up anger and distaste among leave voters; signalling leave voters to recognise the tory party as the brexit party. This is not a new tactic or a unique one. Anyone who knows anything can recognise that remain MPs weren't actually as mad at prorogation as they pretended to be, why on earth would they be? They may have got baited into a fight that ultimately boosted Alexander in the polls.

Or was it something different? Did number 10 have something else in mind after prorogation, a more thought out strategy than it seems to be, but got stopped in it's tracks?

Posted Oct 2, 2019, 8:10 PM UTC

039
cakeist•

They didn’t think there was enough time to legislate for an extension. They were wrong.

8
TheExplodingKittenOPIncoming: Boris' beautiful brexit ballot box bloodbath!•

It did come up in my head but when I look at the timeline it doesn't seem likely. They know Bercow isn't going to delay giving parliament the opportunity to take control. It maybe could have been tight but I don't recall it being that tight. Then there is more time between the end of the prorogation and October 31st than there is between 28th August and the start of the prorogation, number 10 must have known there would easily be enough time.

Furthermore, if they knew the opposition had time or weren't too sure, why not ask for a longer prorogation? Assuming that, as you are, they didn't expect the supreme court to annull.

-3
cakeist•

I think they do want a deal so proroguing until November wouldn’t work. They also needed to come back in September and October to meet the requirements of the NI bill. I think they just didn’t count on the prorogation itself uniting the opposition. The Cooper bill took some time, but the Benn act moved at lightening speed. Even the Lords wouldn’t have been able to hold it up.

The Queens speech delays and confuses things so much in October there wouldn’t have been anything passed until after the EU summit and Boris would hopefully have his deal or no deal vote before then.

2
redditchampsysUK should be able to leave but does it want to•

The Lord's could have filibustered the bill. A more important question was why did they cave in.

0
yorkieboy2019Chuntering from a sedentary position•

They certainly gave it a good go. I think they realised that ultimately the filibuster was going to fail so they called it off in order for them to get some rest.

The Tory lords just didn’t have the numbers to see it through. Opposition Lords were ready to sleep in shifts and still maintain the majority needed throughout the night and next day.

2
redditchampsysUK should be able to leave but does it want to•

But they gave in by announcing it would gain Royal Ascent. Technically the government could have withheld Ascent.

1
[deleted]•

I actually view it as Boris trying to silence Parliament while the negotiations were being worked out.

This way he can have a deal created without having to deal with scrutiny from opposition.

Then once he had a deal in some form (which would be very close to the October 31st deadline) he would be able to present it to the commons.

This would put huge time pressure on the opposition to agree to the deal or risk a no deal scenario.

Strong manning his deal as the only option was a bold move. Not necessarily a good one.

6
PeaSouperClassical liberal•

What’s the actual point in referring to Boris Johnson by a name that he doesn’t use?

4
wherearemyfeetCould you not?•

Kinda reminds me of the folks who say "Barack Hussain Obama".

4
PrimeMinisterMayenglish independence now•

for some reason reddit sees it as some kind of "gotcha"

3
WynterRayneAnarcho-Syndicalist -5.5, -9.54. Yes, I've moved right•

Probably the same reason why people refer to Caitlyn Jenner by a name she doesn't even have, never mind use.

The difference being that some people actually change their names, others don't. If I don't change my name, people can call me by my name. If I do, it's stupid as fuck to call me by anything other than my name. Very few people call me Rae, which I also answer to, and prefer over Rayne. Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is the man's name, so what's wrong with calling him that? Same goes for Stephen Yaxley-Lennon.

If they change their names, by all means use their names instead of the defunct moniker.

2
caveman14The lefties dont shock me anymore•

Makes them sound so cute, hey look I know his full name which he doesn't use, how clever am I

1
TheExplodingKittenOPIncoming: Boris' beautiful brexit ballot box bloodbath!•

Meh not much at all apart from it's mildy fun to point out what his real name is. One of many politicians who change their names to make themselves more of a character or more relatable.

-5†
PrimeMinisterMayenglish independence now•

he started calling himself Boris at the age of 13 for fucks sake

2
genericusername123•

Iirc, the original prorogation was as long as it could possibly be without falling foul of a bill from earlier in the year that forced the govt to report on progress on a NI bill every 2 weeks, starting in October. That bill was tabled specifically to avoid a long prorogation that went through the 31st

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TheExplodingKittenOPIncoming: Boris' beautiful brexit ballot box bloodbath!•

But what was the actual objective? Seems like it would make more sense to wait until conference is over, spend two weeks in talks with Brussels, them prorogue the last two weeks of October.

-1
Tortillagirl•

He wanted to see what the actual parliamentary numbers were, how many of his own party are anti brexit altogether versus anti no deal.

Parliament would have voted for recess, so he only denied them a few parliamentary days in reality. But the duration was so long it would put them into a frothing rage and make them act. Which they did, they played their cards and showed what they could do.

-1
aoide12•

I agree that it doesn't seem to have much practical purpose.

My guess would be a signal of intent. By proroguing parliament he is trying to look tough on brexit. In reality all it does is anger remainers and excited brexiteers but maybe that's all it was really for.

3
SEM580•

Boris has been dodging PMQs ever since. The prorogation also cancelled his appearance in front of the Liaison Committee. Maybe his handlers don't want him questioned by someone?

3
wdtpwwhy oh why can't we have evidence-based government?•

Same as the next prorogation. Johnson's spectacularly bad when under questioning - whether it be PMQs or just the general business of the house. You can see this as his next prorogation will mean he's been PM for nine weeks but only had to do one (terrible) PMQs. He's also lost every vote he's ever had in the House.

From his point of view, Parliament is just a distraction. He's trying desperately to win an election, and the best way to do that is to leave the House of Commons and campaign non-stop. He also doesn't want to give the opposition having a chance to make him look like an idiot in case the country notices it.

So for him, he'd have an election tomorrow. It's all the upsides of not being examined properly and none of the downsides. He's currently more popular than Corbyn, but every time he appears in Parliament, he fucks up. So why would he want to go there?

3
TheExplodingKittenOPIncoming: Boris' beautiful brexit ballot box bloodbath!•

I'm of the opinion that PMQs doesn't matter. Only people like us who pay attention care about it, and honestly even a minority of us truly care about PMQs. Number 10 know this, they know most people outside the Westminster bubble don't give a shit. I don't see why they would prorogue just to dodge PMQs.

I agree he is bad under questioning but I think he actually did fairly decent in the last few parliamentary spectacles.

Giving more time for an election is interesting, I can see it being a side-reason.

We have to consider that the prorogation strategy was risky, they wouldn't do it for a small reason or even multiple small reasons.

1
stylophobetired & emotional•

Mother, the ship's main computer, is able to convince bomb #20 twice to return to the bomb bay after receiving faulty orders, but the third time, the bomb stubbornly refuses to disarm itself and return to the bay, anxious to fulfill its single purpose in life, its destiny: to explode.

2
Mr_Miscellaneous•

To change the parliamentary session so he can try Meaningful Vote Episode IV: A New Dope.

2
iorilondon-5.00, -7.25•

It was to get his rebels to rebel, to stir up passions, to recapture support from the BXP, and to get his opponents to call an election whilst he was riding high (and before any exit-related difficulties). Then, with a majority, you can do a lot more - you may even be able to just go back to an Ireland only backstop, repackaged to be a great victory. The actual proroguement was never meant to happen; that's why they gave enough time for the Benn bill to pass - they hadn't achieved all their objectives, but at least it gave them something (the surrender bill) to stir up the masses.

At that point, it's just a matter of continuing that play. For example, I don't think they even actually expected to win at the supreme court. The government arguments were so bad that it almost defies belief; there's a reason that the court (which often has dissenters) was unanimous against them - if you can't have an election though, and you have this big long proroguement that was meant to cause an election, you can at least twist the screws a bit more (and further enrage people).

Now they put down a deal they know the EU won't accept, and just continue stirring the pot until somebody else finally manages to push through an extension and a new election. Plus they get to do a queen's speech (which will be pure electioneering) - and, even if it gets voted down, it still serves a purpose. They'll be thinking that most of their backers will stay with them, especially after the events of the last two months... and they may well be right. Johnson seems to be an oaf, but Cummings (for all his flaws) understands his audience (which is definitely only half or less of the country - enough to get a majority), and is a canny operator.

1
major_clanger•

Think it was to force his opponents to move early, and use this as causes belli to call an early election.

Without prorogation, MPs would have held out longer to put up something like the Benn act, too late to have an election before Oct 31, which was Johnson's plan A.

1
ManCaveHideout•

I think it was all about trying to trap Corbyn into voting for an election. When that didn't work, and the Commons instead created the Benn Act, the Tories saw that as another possible way to draw Corbyn into the trap by deliberately reducing their majority even more with the expulsions. Surely a questionable proroguing and an extremely weak government would draw Corbyn into an election? That didn't work.

All Johnson wanted was an early election before October 31st because that was his window of greatest opportunity. Every trick he tried, failed. As soon as an early election was ruled out, he suddenly started scrambling around trying to come up with something that resembled a deal. But his whole strategy was to not get that far in the first place.

Now he has to play a longer game which involves coming up with a deal that the EU cannot get behind, blame the EU and say that any kind of deal is impossible. I suspect that the Tories will campaign on a no-deal Brexit at the GE. They will take any kind of deal off the table by pointing out the EU just will not accept anything other than the unacceptable May deal. I guess it is their hope that they won't lose votes to the BXP if they campaign on no-deal. It remains to be seen whether they won't lose more moderate voters that want a deal with this strategy though.

1
SendmeinterestingDMs•

Fundraising. It's help whip up a furore with donors.

0
TheExplodingKittenOPIncoming: Boris' beautiful brexit ballot box bloodbath!•

Seems like Boris already had most eurosceptic donors well on side, in fact his move was likely to lose many remainer donors, more than he already had lost, to the lib dems.

Doesn't seem likely to me, especially as it was a Cummings strategy rather than a CCHQ strategy.

Additionally, Tory coffers are already booming, was it worth all the risk?

1
tmstms•

How about 4D chess, Boris doesn't want to leave?

0†
TheExplodingKittenOPIncoming: Boris' beautiful brexit ballot box bloodbath!•

I would not be surprised.

1
tau_decay•

There was probably more than one reason, induce Remainers to go nuts allowing him to remove Tory Remainers, set up the people versus parliament narrative and (he thought) triggering an early election, plus maybe also sending a signal to the EU that he wasn't May.

-1†
TheExplodingKittenOPIncoming: Boris' beautiful brexit ballot box bloodbath!•

Ah yes I forgot to mention the election. It does indeed seem this way rather than genuinely trying to force through no-deal.

1
Bropstars•

Could just be why not?

There wasn't really anything for parliament to do, so why not?

-1
TheExplodingKittenOPIncoming: Boris' beautiful brexit ballot box bloodbath!•

I agree there wasn't anything for parliament to do but there has to be something to gain for them to do so. No government just prorogues for no reason.

0
Bropstars•

Well I guess originally it was to stop parliament from legislating against no deal.

2
TheExplodingKittenOPIncoming: Boris' beautiful brexit ballot box bloodbath!•

Which I have debunked.

0
Bropstars•

Not really. No one knew if legislation would pass quickly.

1
[deleted]•

[removed]

0