Should I wait for 3950x or the 12 core Zen 3 in July?
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Posted Oct 7, 2019, 5:29 PM UTC
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As I understand, the rumor of 4-way SMT for Zen 3 was debunked based on slides for the Epyc roadmap at a HPC conference not too long ago (last week?).
Also, 4-way SMT will be faster than 2-way, but there is diminishing returns.
Zen 3 is more of a refinement and Zen 4 will be more like a major step, but it's too far out to make any plans based on that.
I would say that, if the 3950X represents a major uplift in your performance, and if you're using it for work, then it will probably be worth it for you.
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Good point. How about the maturity of the 7nm by July? Right now, there's big hit or miss.
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Oh, I'm sure it will be more mature by then, but I'm not necessarily the best judge of what that means in terms of performance uplift or stability.
Things I would be thinking about:
- Supply/demand issues: right now, Zen 2 supplies are somewhat limited and demand is very high. Those numbers are normalizing, but it seems likely we'll have similar issues during the November launch (especially with Black Friday sales, etc.). What will supply and demand look like with Ryzen 4? Well, on the one hand AMD/TSMC will have some more time to plan and prepare, and and the hype around Ryzen 3 will have somewhat dissipated. However, you may have many OEMs wanting to source Ryzen 4 for their PCs, especially in the laptop sector with the expected release of Zen 2 based APUs. Also, it seems likely that demand for 7nm in general will only continue to grow.
- Competition: The Cascade Lake X launch this November opens up some options for HEDT customers, meaning that the demand for 3950X/Threadrippers might not be quite as crazy, but honestly I'm not sure how much of a difference it will make in such a niche market. Coming into 2020, it doesn't look like AMD will have a lot of competition, and at this point I think they're in a position to set the market prices. I would not be surprised is AMD choose to raise prices a little bit during 2020. By 2021, Intel may be prepared with an answer to Ryzen and I expect the competition to be fierce.
- Platform longevity: If you get a 3950X now, the AM4 platform will be good for at least another year. That means that if there's a Ryzen 4 that proves to be a significant upgrade for you that it would be worth to purchase next year, you won't have to get a new motherboard. On the other hand, if you wait until next year to purchase, it will be harder to justify upgrading to AM5/Zen 4 when it is release in 2021.
All that said, if 3950X delivers on it's promises, provides a meaningful improvement to your existing workflow, and you can grab one for near MSRP, then I'd probably go for it. However, that's a lot of conditions. Getting a 3900X for MSRP will probably be pretty easy in the next couple months, and will be a better value for the dollar compared to the 3950X.
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Zen 9.
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My concern is serious, I'd love to see some serious answer if possible.
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If you wait another year and half you can probably see some not good things on zen 4/AM5/PCIE5/DDR5 and wait another year or two to see improved things on zen 5 and...again and again. There is no right choice. If you planning to work on this PC you should just buy it and do your work. When I was buying my 3900x i knew why I do it and what I got for this money. And already paid off it twice or more.
You can wait until end of your life.
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That would be another socket and maybe RAM. Not even a discussion.
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Might as well wait for Zen 4 then
Your jokes aside, if it isn't the measly 7 months gap, there's no question I am investing my $800 for 3950x.
Are you OK getting your $800 chip getting obsolete in 7 months? 1 year is reasonably Ok but not 7mos.
Obsolete? Are you out of your mind? Just buy a 32 core threadripper then.
Obsolete in a way that another mainstream at cheaper price ($500) will be able to do both multi and single threaded benchmark. The question really is, should I spend $800 at the end of November or $500 on July to a better chip.
That's entirely up to if you'd even benefit from the 4 additional cores in your workload
Not being newest doesn't mean they're obsolete. If ya need it get it right now, if you feel good waiting then wait. New stuff are out every year, by the same time next year people would be worried about their Zen3 being outclassed by Zen4. No way around that.
My concern isn't because it's new but I am pointing out on the performance and the price as well.
3950x won't be obsolete until earliest 4 or 5 years later. It's a really beefy cpu, the best non HEDT productivity+gaming cpu on consumer desktop tbh.