Source
r/Amd•
backsing

Is it better to wait for 3950x or the 12 core Zen 3 in July?

Discussion

The 3950x is long overdue. I may realistically have it by the end of November or early December depending on stock, shipping etc. Now Zen 3 is around the corner. If things go their normal way, we may see a 12 core 4900x Zen 3 in July. Zen 3 has been rumored to have 4 threads per core so expect the 12 core to have 48 threads that may demolish the 3950x in multi threaded benchmark. The 7nm manufacturing process will also drastically mature by then and we expect higher clocks and overclockability that will beat the 3950x on single core. Infinity fabric and caches may also improve dramatically.

With all these improvement coming within 7 months from the time I realistically get my hand on a 3950x, should I wait or not? Remember that a 12 core sells at $500 a piece so it means that my $800 chip will soon become obsolete in 7 months by a 12 core $500 one. What do you guys think?

Posted Oct 7, 2019, 5:58 PM UTC

045
K900_2700X/X570 Aorus Pro/16GB B-die @ 3466CL14/V56 Nitro+•

Zen3 will not have SMT4, that was confirmed yesterday. Also, even if it did, adding more threads per core gives you diminishing returns, so there's no way it would perform as well as a 16-core part based on that alone.

13
backsingOP•

That's good news then. I did not hear that news.. this may inch me closer in getting the 3950x

-1
looncrazFlare this.•

Zen 3 does have 8 core CCXes, though.

2
backsingOP•

Damnit. You're just making this decision more difficult. But good to know though.

1
looncrazFlare this.•

I am in the same boat, the 8 core CCX made the decision for me, I am going to wait for the 4950X.

1
jortego128R7 3700X | MSI B450 Tomahawk | RX 580•

Source?

1
DijkyWait for AGESA•

Tom's Hardware:

In the second picture, you can see that the Zen3/Milan CCD has a unified L3 for eight cores, instead of two L3s for four cores each in Zen2/Rome.

Tom's also wrote:

AMD currently splits its chiplets into two four-core Compute Complexes (CCX), each armed with 16MB of L3 cache. For Milan, that changes to eight cores connected to a unified 32MB slice of L3 cache, which should eliminate a layer of latency within the compute die.

4
looncrazFlare this.•

https://www.overclock3d.net/news/cpu_mainboard/amd_reveals_early_zen_3_milan_architecture_details_and_zen_4_genoa_plans/1

1
OrigenNoahXAMD•

When Zen 3 releases, just wait for Zen 4 and repeat with every new release until death.

9
backsingOP•

The concern here is the 7 months non-regular interval. Would you rather spend $800 now then in 7 months, a $500 chip will outclass your $800?

-2
OrigenNoahXAMD•

You can wait another year and get the $500 chip for $350 or $400.

3
backsingOP•

Again, 1 yr is OK.. but not 7 months.

-2
OrigenNoahXAMD•

Look.. if you already have a good PC good enough for things you are doing, wait.. if you don't, just buy one. We are talking about high end chips that can perform or max out every piece of shit on a computer.

1
KrustyliciousF1•

as k900 said, Zen3 will not have smt4 .... It may happen with zen 4 along with a modest core count upgrade.

smt4 will need the unified cache that will happen on zen3. The reason it needs it, is because theres soo many cores on the ccx now that it will just get messy. Basically a unified cache works in the same as the new io chips works for access ddr memory in the sense the every core on a chip can see the data at the same time (probably badly worded)

As for timing, don't hold for a July release.

5
TheNiceGuyBen•

But then by the time you may get your hands on a 4900x cause of demand it may be only 7 months until the 5900x comes out so why not wait for that?

Basically theres always gonna be new better tech just around the corner so just buy what you need when you need it if you dont need it urgently then wait for zen 3 if you do need to upgrade soon get the 3950x

5
backsingOP•

But not as short as 7 months. No. And this isn't just a $300 chip but an $800 one. The problem is, a cheaper ($500) chip is going to beat a more expensive chip ($800) in 7 months. What's acceptable is a same priced chip ($800) beating an older same priced chip ($800) in a year.

-1
TheNiceGuyBen•

That's just the way the techs going atm though, all you gotta ask is do you need it now, can you wait, are you willing to just resell the 3950x and upgrade once next gen comes. Also how do we know the next gen 12 core will beat this gens 16 core unless I've missed something which could be likely we dont really know anything about next gen currently

1
backsingOP•

I understand what you mean but if the 3950x was released last July then I wouldn't be even thinking about this since I've already accepted the fate of the 12 months cycle.. .. but 7 months is just hard to swallow especially for an $800 chip.

1
TheNiceGuyBen•

Yea I get that but if the 3900x is anything to go by then the 3950x is gonna be one hell of a chip and if it fits your use case and you need the upgrade then I don't think you should feel bad about getting it

1
kingdom92143900X, X-570 Strix-E, 2080ti•

I mean this is PC builder dilemma, there is always going to be something better just around the corner. The 3950x is probably already going to be plenty of CPU for even insane heavy loaded computing. We know availability is and issue for the 3900x so I would fully expect the 3950x to be even harder to get and 3rd gen more so.

I also doubt 4 threads it going to make a huge impact on performance. You will probably see large diminishing gains since the threads basically just pipeline work for then actual CPU. A 4 lane highway with a single lane bridge doesn’t do much over a 2/1.

2
backsingOP•

I mean this is PC builder dilemma,

But not as short as 7 months. No. And this isn't just a $300 chip but an $800 one. The problem is, a cheaper ($500) chip is going to beat a more expensive chip ($800) in 7 months. What's acceptable is a same priced chip ($800) beating an older same priced chip ($800) in a year.

1
ElTamalesThreadripper 1950X @ 3.9Ghz | Zotac 2070 S•

The point is how much are you willing to wait. and how much you need the system NOW.

1
backsingOP•

I have 3700x right now that is actually fairly capable.

1
ElTamalesThreadripper 1950X @ 3.9Ghz | Zotac 2070 S•

Then wait, the 3700X will hold its grown pretty well.

2
Xayrion3900X - 2080Ti - X470 Taichi•

3700X is plenty for now. I’d wait for Zen 3 and have those sweet IPC and clock gains.

1
kingdom92143900X, X-570 Strix-E, 2080ti•

I mean those prices are pure speculation, and Ryzen 4000 isn’t a die shrink so I wouldn’t expect more then a few percent performance increase. We’ll probably see slightly boosted clocks, faster DDR4 support, and further optimized infinity fabric. Along with that suspect their prices will be close to Ryzen 3000 core for core. Since Intel has nothing to compete AMD has not reason to undercut. So personally don’t foresee a 16/32 CPU for $500 next year.

1
jortego128R7 3700X | MSI B450 Tomahawk | RX 580•

We have no guarantees the new chips will be out in July. Thats pure speculation at this time.

1
KuivamaaR9 3900X, Radeon VII•

I wouldn’t expect Zen 3 next July. AMD expect Milan Epyc to arrive around September 2020 so Ryzen 4900X should be available around then. So if you opt for that you might have to wait another month on top if that. Get the 3900X or 3950X if you need an upgrade now.

2
empathica1•

If you get the 4900x, you'll feel bad without the computer for a year. If you get a 3950x, youll feel bad about not having a 4900x in a year.

Also, we dont know how much of an advance zen 3 is. It looks like zen 2+ right now.

1
backsingOP•

I just wish I have tons of money so I won't have to even think about this problem right now. lol

0
bobzdar•

Yeah, except you neither have verification that a new version will be out in 7 months, nor that it will be $500. You're just speculating that, which (much like your 4 threads per core) could very well be completely wrong.

1
backsingOP•

The speculations are based on patterns. Even the best detective use the same strategy.

1
bobzdar•

What pattern? Zen March 2017, zen+ april 2018, zen 2 July 2019. What part of that pattern says zen 3 June 2020 (7 months after Nov 3950x release) ? Based on that, earliest would be Aug 2020, latest oct 2020 (my bet).

1
backsingOP•

The pattern is that there's no exact pattern.

1
Old_Miner_Jack•

Nothing announced yet. July 2020 may be too optimistic for TSMC capacities.

1
GF_Hantzley•

SMT is no longer on the roadmap for Zen 3. Expect the clock and IPC increase to be substantial tho. DDR5 is no longer on the roadmap for Zen 3 either. They're going to have way better cache and better efficiency but that's a long time to wait. I utilize my PC as a workstation and can't afford to wait until next year for the new chips. The 3950x will be amazing and you won't regret the purchase; it should last you for a good amount of time. The best part is, if you REALLY want the Zen 3 chips, sell your amazing 16 core processor for a small loss and upgrade upgrade upgrade.

There will always be something better around the corner. I would say that you can't go wrong with either the 3900x or the 3950x, as they will definitely hold their retail value for a longer time than the Ryzen 3 or Ryzen 5 lineup. The 3950x will not be rendered "obsolete" for a long time...Zen 3 is going to be huge, but that doesn't mean Zen 2 is trash.

1
beersykins•

What do you have now?

As per others the waiting game is rough but upgrading on technology standard advancements and socket generations is a more calculated play. If you have something now that's okay I assume zen3 will be the last hoorah for AM4, so either get that as a best-of-socket solution or dump the dollhairs into something next year on newer standards.

1