Buy out Muncy through ARB & extend?
With Muncy headed into ARB1, having "proven" himself over the past two years, and the fact he is turning 30 next year (motivation for Muncy), I could see the Dodgers and Muncy reaching a contract agreement that secures him beyond his ARB years.
5 year deal for $55mil plus a team option for a 6th year. Muncy secures his future, and the Dodgers get a longer term discount.
Per various forecasts out there, he would be expected to get just shy of $5mil in 2020. I would assume $10mil for 2021 (ARB2), and $20mil in 2022 (ARB3). $35mil for remainder of ARB. Tack on 2 years at a discounted 10mil each, gets you to $55mil. AAV of $11mil. Tack on a team option for another year at $5mil.
It takes away a small amount of flexibility in 2020, but assuming that Muncy continues to produce, it provides a great deal of value/flexibility for 2022-2025.
Thoughts?
Posted Oct 15, 2019, 5:59 PM UTC
I don't think anyone would disagree that extending him is the best move, the question is how much. I'm sure he'd make the argument that he's worth more than $55mil over 5 years, and considering that'll be the rest of his prime he's going to want to get every dollar he can make (deservedly so)
Absolutely - the decision really lies with Muncy like you mention. You never know what a player's motivation is, but I think a former journeyman who won't be a FA until his age 32 season (3 more years) might be motivated to get some of that financial security. Maybe 55 is little on the low side, but probably in the realm
5/80 sounds about right. Basically the Ethier contract. Don’t think a guy like Muncy would turn down $80,000,000 especially since he won’t sniff that in the open market. He could reasonably get more than $55Mn through arb + his age 33-34 seasons. Don’t think he would come close to $80,000,000.
I think he could get pretty damn close to 80 million if he maintains his current production. 5 mil this year, 10 next year, 15 in 22. Thats 30 right there. If he hits FA with 5 straight years of that production he’ll get 20+ million in 23 and 24. That’s a floor of 70 million. Of course that assuming he maintains this production.... but that’s exactly what his agent will argue he is going to do.
I think they are probably better off riding out next year on his arb1 deal, then offering a marketish value 5 year extension next off season.