[OC] A look back at previous "Most Improved Player" winners and what it may tell us about the most likely candidates this year

After going back through the list of "Most Improved Player" award winners from the 2000s, there's no clear and consensus template to victory.

Certainly, the easiest path to win the award would be to blow up your scoring overnight. Some examples of that would include Zach Randolph who won in 2004 after going from 8.4 PPG to 20.1 (+11.7). Monta Ellis won a few years later by ballooning from 6.8 to 16.5 (+9.7). More recently, C.J. McCollum won in his breakout year after going from 6.8 PPG all the way up to 20.8 (+14.0). In all three cases, the improvement also came from a huge swell in "minutes played." Randolph and McCollum both doubled their minutes, for example.

However, that's not always the case. In certain instances, the trophy goes to improvement in scoring and efficiency more than playing time. In fact, Danny Granger won in 2009 despite playing only 0.2 more minutes per game. Jimmy Butler won in 2015 with the exact same minutes played (38.7 to 38.7). However, both Granger and Butler did improve their scoring that season (+6.2 and +6.9, respectively.)

If you want to scroll through the entire list of winnings of the 2000s, here are the numbers and their improvements. For the "year," we're listing the year the trophy was handed out. For "age," we're using basketball-reference numbers which judges by midseason age.

2000: Jalen Rose, Indiana

age: 27 years old, season 6 in NBA

before: 25.3 minutes, 11.1 PPG

after: 37.2 minutes, 18.2 PPG

2001: Tracy McGrady, Orlando

age: 21 years old, season 4 in NBA

before: 31.2 minutes, 15.4 PPG (in Toronto)

after: 40.1 minutes, 26.8 PPG

2002: Jermaine O'Neal, Indiana

age: 23 years old, season 6 in NBA

before: 32.6 minutes, 12.9 PPG

after: 37.6 minutes, 19.0 PPG

2003: Gilbert Arenas, Golden State

age: 21 years old, season 2 in NBA

before: 24.6 minutes, 10.9 PPG

after: 35.0 minutes, 18.3 PPG

2004: Zach Randolph, Portland

age: 22 years old, season 3 in NBA

before: 16.9 minutes, 8.4 PPG

after: 37.9 minutes, 20.1 PPG

2005: Bobby Simmons, L.A. Clippers

age: 24 years old, season 4 in NBA

before: 24.6 minutes, 7.8 PPG

after: 37.3 minutes, 16.4 PPG

2006: Boris Diaw, Phoenix

age: 23 years old, season 3 in NBA

before: 18.2 minutes, 4.8 PPG

after: 35.5 minutes, 13.3 PPG

2007: Monta Ellis, Golden State

age: 21 years old, season 2 in NBA

before: 18.1 minutes, 6.8 PPG

after: 34.3 minutes, 16.5 PPG

2008: Hedo Turkoglu, Orlando

age: 28 years old, season 8 in NBA

before: 31.1 minutes, 13.3 PPG

after: 36.9 minutes, 19.5 PPG

2009: Danny Granger, Indiana

age: 25 years old, season 4 in NBA

before: 36.0 minutes, 19.6 PPG

after: 36.2 minutes, 25.8 PPG

2010: Aaron Brooks, Houston

age: 25 years old, season 3 in NBA

before: 25.0 minutes, 11.2 PPG

after: 35.6 minutes, 19.6 PPG

2011: Kevin Love, Minnesota

age: 22 years old, season 3 in NBA

before: 28.6 minutes, 14.0 PPG

after: 35.8 minutes, 20.2 PPG

2012: Ryan Anderson, Orlando

age: 23 years old, season 4 in NBA

before: 22.3 minutes, 10.6 PPG

after: 32.2 minutes, 16.1 PPG

2013: Paul George, Indiana

age: 22 years old, season 3 in NBA

before: 29.7 minutes, 12.1 PPG

after: 37.6 minutes, 17.4 PPG

2014: Goran Dragic, Phoenix

age: 27 years old, season 6 in NBA

before: 33.5 minutes, 14.7 PPG

after: 35.1 minutes, 20.3 PPG

2015: Jimmy Butler, Chicago

age: 25 years old, season 4 in NBA

before: 38.7 minutes, 13.1 PPG

after: 38.7 minutes, 20.0 PPG

2016: C.J. McCollum, Portland

age: 24 years old, season 3 in NBA

before: 15.7 minutes, 6.8 PPG

after: 34.8 minutes, 20.8 PPG

2017: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee

age: 22 years old, season 4 in NBA

before: 35.3 minutes, 16.9 PPG

after: 35.6 minutes, 22.9 PPG

2018: Victor Oladipo, Indiana

age: 25 years old, season 5 in NBA

before: 33.2 minutes, 15.9 PPG (in OKC)

after: 34.0 minutes, 23.1 PPG

2019: Pascal Siakam, Toronto

age: 24 years old, season 3 in NBA

before: 20.7 minutes, 7.3 PPG

after: 31.9 minutes, 16.9 PPG

Clearly there are different versions and pathways forward to win. Most often, we see players win around their 3rd or 4th season, but that's not always the case. At times, it takes a new team and new role to jumpstart your candidacy. Other times, it's that first breakout year when a good player takes the next jump and gets his first All-Star appearance.

If you take the AVERAGE for each of these seasons, you'd get the following most improved player.

Mr. Most Improved (average from 2000-2019)

age: 23.7 years old, season 4.0 in NBA

before: 27.1 minutes, 11.7 PPG

after: 36.0 minutes, 19.6 PPG

Clearly, a big number in "minutes" and "points" is the crucial calling card. And since we're looking for players who can jump about +7 or +8 points, the idea of eyeing current players in the 11-12 range last season makes sense. If we also look for players in the typical age range (23-24, season 4), that could narrow our search.

So if we look for someone who fits this profile, which players come to mind?

######candidates that fit our profile

Jaylen Brown, Boston: Based on pure numbers, Jaylen Brown fits our average "Mr. Most Improved" nearly to a T. He's 23 years old, and entering Season 4. His previous numbers (25.9 minutes, 13.0 PPG) are also nearly identical to our average. The main concern for Brown's candidacy would be opportunity. Will the Celtics have enough minutes to play Brown 33-34 per game? That's going to be the hardest aspect for him, unless the team commits to a super smallball approach.

Fred VanVleet, Toronto: After his huge opening night performance, we already heard some FVV "Most Improved" buzz, and he fits our criteria well even before that. He's 25, also entering Season 4 (the magic number.) Even more so than Jaylen Brown, the opportunity for extended minutes (27.5 last year) and extended points (11.0 PPG) is absolutely there for the taking. I don't know if VanVleet has the type of mentality to push his average up into the 18 PPG range, but if it's required to help the team win, he may be capable. Oddly enough, teammate Pascal Siakam also has a clear opportunity to improve by + 7 or + 8 PPG, although I’m not convinced voters will honor the same player twice in a row for this.

Justise Winslow, Miami: On paper, Justise Winslow also fits neatly into the boxes we've laid out. He's 23, entering Year 5. His average from last season (12.6 PPG) should be easy to improve on as well. While Winslow already played a fair amount last year (29.7 minutes per game), his increased ballhandling and playmaking role may make his minutes more productive (statistically) and lead to a candidacy in the mold of his new teammate Jimmy Butler.

Kelly Oubre, Phoenix: Candidly, I'm not a huge fan of Kelly Oubre, but I have to admit he has an opportunity here. He'll be 24 for the majority of the season, and will be in Season 4. "Opportunity" shouldn't be an issue either. Now on Phoenix for the full year, he can absolutely improve on his 15.2 PPG average from last season, especially with Deandre Ayton suspended for a while. If the Suns rely more heavily on Oubre, he can threaten 18-20 PPG. Can he get into the 21-22 range he'd probably need to win this? Maybe.

Malik Beasley, Denver: In terms of talent and production, all Malik Beasley really needs is the opportunity that someone like Kelly Oubre has right now. Beasley's already a good scorer, hitting 11.3 PPG in 23.2 minutes a night (with 40.2% from three last season.) If he got to play 30-35 minutes, he could absolutely win this award in his Age 23, Season-4 campaign. The only thing blocking him would be the Denver depth; there's not a true pathway to those minutes right now barring an injury.

Myles Turner, Indiana: We tend to think of Myles Turner as an already-established star, but there's still room for improvement from a statistical standpoint for the 23 year old. Last season, the Pacers kept his minutes down (28.6 per game) and his scoring stagnated at 13.3. Perhaps he's simply not the type of player who's going to drive up his scoring given everything else he does. However, if he wanted to, he can absolutely threaten 20 PPG and make a case here. Teammate Domatas Sabonis may also have the same idea in mind.

######candidates that nearly fit our profile

Jonathan Isaac, Orlando: Still only 22 years old and entering Season 3, Isaac's candidacy may be a season premature. Still, you love the opportunity here. After a modest 9.6 PPG last season, Isaac has the chance to get the +7 or +8 he would need to qualify for some votes if he shows more of an aggressive approach on offense this year.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City: Only entering Year 2, it would be quite early for SGA to win Most Improved. However, it has happened for a few year 2 players before so we can’t rule it out. On a new team, he’s going to have an extended opportunity to score, especially if the team starts shipping out their vets.

Markelle Fultz, Orlando: Based on the template we've laid out, Markelle Fultz doesn't qualify as a likely candidate because he's not even productive enough for our "before" campaign (8.2 PPG, 22.5 minutes last year.) Still, that low bar may help him even more in the event that the Magic unleash him for 30 minutes a night and allow him to get up to that 15 PPG range. In fact, he may be one of the most likely candidates all things considered.