Luka is fourth in WAR by 538 this year
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-...
projects.fivethirtyeight.comPosted Nov 11, 2019, 1:35 PM UTC
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projects.fivethirtyeight.comHave you seen passing statistics?
https://stats.nba.com/players/passing/?dir=1&sort=AST_POINTS_CREATED
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That's absolutely insane
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Damn Lillard plays a lot of minutes
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Why are people all over Lukas defense? In the analysis it’s on par with LeBron...
Let's be real, Luka does great in analytic defensive measures because he gets a lot of rebounds. One of the problems basketball analytics faces is that we have very few good metrics to rate defense. Case in point, Kawhi is rated as a +3.1 in their metric, while Luka is rated +2.0, but the difference in the quality of their defense is astounding and evidently should be worth much more than a +1.1.
Luka gets blown by regularly by quicker guards, struggles to defend bigs and doesn't contest shots particularly well. He's not a bad defender, I would rate him average to below average, just based on watching him play. But there's a reason that teams like Portland wanted to get a switch on him to Dame, because he isn't a very good defender. LeBron on the other hand can switch on his defensive mode and get stops when it matters. That's the difference between Bron and Luka on defence, both get loads of rebounds and so they show up similarly on analytics, but LeBron is mostly coasting, whereas Luka just isn't that good.
That being said, Luka gets more hate for his defense than he should, he's not bad and he can still improve a lot.
Defensive rebounds are important to defense metrics because they stop possession, like a steal (though less valuable because they can only come after an opponent miss). Even a block or good contest doesn't guarantee possession change.
So in Luka's case, the real inflation in his metrics isn't because he gets a lot of rebounds. It's because the team defers to him on easy rebounds so he can start the offense. Luka is becoming an elite rebounder, you can see that if you watch the games, but his numbers are absolutely boosted by the team deferring to him for offense purposes. Same with Westbrook, who is an elite rebounder but also got his stats padded a ton when he was in OKC because his teammates deferred to him on easy rebounds.
I see your point but I wouldn't say Luka is an elite rebounder. In order to be elite you would need to be able to crash the glass on the offensive end too, where Luka only gets 1 of his rebounds per night usually. He's a very good rebounder though, and he does get the Westbrook treatment which is exactly why his defensive stats are padded. Westbrook is the best example, because he gets so many rebounds, analytics would have him as a very good defender, despite the fact he got torched by Rubio in the last playoff series against the Jazz. Westbrook is good defensively, but his rebounds heavily overrate him, and the same goes for Luka too.
Right, which is why i said Luka is becoming an elite rebounder. He's not there yet. But when you watch the games, he is consistently getting to the right spots and/or predicting where the ball is going, on both offense or defense. He just needs to learn how to get around the defender for the offensive boards, or move later so the defender doesn't have time to box him out properly. The tools are there, he just has to keep developing them.
I’d switch him for iso to exhaust him a bit too. Good analysis though - Kawhi is a beast...
People are all over Luka defense because he is white and looks unathletic.People who will actually watch mavericks games will realize that Doncic doesnt have Harden or Trae defense,he is decent to average.And with time and losing some pounds i think he can be above average in that departament.
I think the biggest weakness of him isnt the defense but the turnovers.
Because he is young and has room to improve. LeBron is arguably the best defender in the game at times, but only in spurts now. His age just doesn't allow him to go that hard all night every night anymore
I was referring to r/nba where Luka is in Trae territory. I’m totally with you, we need him to improve as much he can and he’ll be NR1 on the Raptor with that alone!
By the way - I recommend reading the statistics behind ...
i'm probably the biggest luka stan there is, but luka dies at every screen and plays like me in pick up, if i see a screen i'm like "meh just go to the basket idc"
he's big, on ball he's up to very solid but his man gets free every time behind him
imo it's fixable and not that much of a worry but defensive stats are legit bad and tells you nothing (over inflated by defensive rebounds for example) on how a player performs defensively
trae is obv waay worse but with his height and just being a big body luka should (and will) do better
+1 for dissing your own PnR defense while making a valid post.
eh, Lebron has the best two defensive anchors around him now that he could possibly have (AD and Green. I wouldn’t say his defense is improved this year, as much as the scheme and players around him are better. Luka suffers from not having a defensive anchor and the rotations atm are complete shit. They’ll improve imo, but it’s gonna take some time.