The Federation caused the Romulan Supernova and the Praxis explosion. And Spock was probably involved both times.
The Federation has always been presented to us as a force of peace and union between races. And to an extent that is true. The fact that 150 planets, inhabited by a wide variety of species, have managed to unite under one Federal government, sharing technology, allowing free movement between their worlds, and who knows what else is certainly commendable. But in spite of its peaceful spirit, the Federation was actually very powerful, and has spread really fast. So much so, that at times it has produced conflicts with races that were either expansionist themselves, or unwilling to share their expansion with others. I would argue than, in some cases, the Federation's expansionism has been so aggressive, that some races that could potentially be friendly to them from the beginning, got distrustful and felt a need to respond.
This was clearly the case with the Dominion. When it first ventured into the Gamma Quadrant, the Federation blatantly ignored the Dominion's pleas for it to stay out of its limits and its issues. The Federation not only didn't listen, but also insisted that there was no way they would back out, or stop the incursions into their space (as Dax tells the Jem'Hadar in "The Jem'Hadar"). This logically sparked a response from the Dominion: first by going Kamikaze against the fleet that went to rescue Sisko and then– when they realized the message wasn't received, and that instead of staying out the Federation launched a quest for the Founders – by outright infiltrating the Alpha Quadrant powers. And we know how that ended.
An interesting occurrence during the Dominion war (or actually, far before it even begun) was the Federation's reaction towards the Founders. When it was obvious the Dominion wouldn't back down and let the Federation into their territory, and let alone open up to assimilation, Section 31, working with several Starfleet officials, decided they would put an end to the power behind the Dominion and they planted the diseases that almost wiped them out. What I'm saying is that they went straight to genocide, without even taking the time to fully know or understand the Founders. Straight to genocide. Just like that.
I would argue this was not the first time the Federation took extreme measures to deal with their enemies. The conflict with the Klingons was long, painful and costly. And the Empire proved to be extremely resilient and willing to do great sacrifices to stay if not ahead, at least on par with the Federation from a military perspective. This forced the Federation to divert a lot of its resources to attend this conflict. Until Praxis exploted, that is.
The Praxis explosion was an extremely convenient event for the Federation. It forced the Klingons to divert most of their resources to try to save their home world from becoming uninhabitable. And I'm pretty sure they had to change their focus from war with Starfleet, to keeping their home front in order. After all, the explosion would have meant a great opportunity for some Klingon colonies to secede, and from vassal races within the empire to declare independence. And they couldn't allow that.
Fortunately for them, the benevolent Federation came to their rescue. In no time, the Feds agreed to sign a peace treaty, and to assist the Klingons in their efforts to rescue their home world. And they definitely delivered, as against all predictions, Q'onos was still livable a century after the explosion (when all Klingon models predicted the planet would no longer be so after about 50 years).
The end of the Klingon conflict meant a great relief for the Federation. So much so that they were able to pretty much dismantle the military side of Starfleet, and turn it only into an exploration (and "peaceful" expansion and assimilation) force. Of course there were other races still out there which were potentially dangerous. The Cardassians were certainly a pain, and the Federation went to war with them. But I would argue that they never represented an actual threat, as Starfleet fought the war without ever re-militarizing itself. Until the Borg conflict, that is.
Another superpower that was lurking around were the Romulans. But due to their isolationist nature (at least when it came to the Federation - something that is understandable given their history with the Vulcans, and their early conflict with the Humans) and to what I would argue was a massive disadvantage in terms of military power, they didn't pose a significant threat. By signing the Treaty of Algeron and pledging not to use cloaking devices (a technology the Federation clearly didn't need, as it was so much more advanced than everyone else), by respecting the border, and by having the possibility to combine forces with the Klingons thanks to the alliance, they pretty much deactivated the Romulans for more than a century.
But then something changed. With the Federation weakened by the Dominion war and the Klingon economy pretty much destroyed, the Romulan position suddenly became relatively stronger. It is no wonder that during that time some elements within the empire started to call for an invasion of the Federation. It was, after all, a unique opportunity. Then in 2379 Shinzon came to power, supported by those elements. And his first order of business was to invade the Federation and attempt to destroy Earth. Things didn't work out. But suddenly the Romulans proved they had become a real threat. One that needed to be deactivated at all costs. In 2387, only 8 years after the Shinzon incident, a star near the Romulan system went supernova, and due to an unexplained phenomenon that allowed the explosion to travel faster than the speed of light, the explosion destroyed their world.
With Romulus destroyed, it seems the Federation came to the rescue. Leaving all bad blood behind, and initiating a process which would help the empire restore itself and heal. But with diminished power and a new dependency on the Federation, very much like the one the Klingons had after Praxis. A dependency that would probably lead to a long peace, and a potential alliance. And why not to a Vulcan reunification?
It seems logical to me, that a government that didn't hesitate to commit genocide at the first sign of trouble with another civilization (like they did with the Founders), would not have issues destroying first a moon, and a couple of solar systems later in order to cripple the most significant threats to secure their position, and in a way assimilate the races that were most reactive to their expansion in the first place. If I were a superpower in the Galaxy, I would be very worried about the Federation. They will certainly do anything not just to destroy me, but to bring me into their club.
Spock's Role
Finally I'd like to point out that Spock may have been involved in both incidents. When Praxis exploded, the then Captain negotiated the early peace agreement with Gorkon, which led to the Peace of Kithomer. Years later, it was Spock who showed a sign of good will to the Romulans by trying to "save" the star (and use commas here, because I believe the red matter thingy was never gonna work, and he was just trying to establish good faith to later advance with a peace offering like the one he had given the Klingons over a century early). So I can only wonder if he was in it from the beginning, or just an unwilling participant in two terrible attacks.
Posted Dec 3, 2019, 11:25 PM UTC · edited
It's a very compelling theory with, IMO, one significant flaw; the Praxis explosion, if deliberate, was an insane gamble.
The explosion's effects will take decades to destroy Qo'nos - leaving a war-ready Klingon fleet in being which could still do colossal damage to the Federation before its supporting logistics failed. Beta canon has covered this a few times, with bad results for the Federation, and even in the prime universe the near-alt timeline of Yesterday's Enterprise sees the Federation falling. The same problem applies to Mirror-Georgiou's solution of destroying Qo'nos.
Blowing up Praxis could quite easily unleash the worst conflict in the Federation's history to date, which does not seem like the actions of an intel organisation trying to engender the long-term health of the Federation.
I agree in that, if the theory turned out to be true, it would be an insanely risky move. However, I believe that the explosion did occur at a very particular moment at which the odds of the Klingons attacking were lower. For a start, Gorkon, a rational man who was open to peace (given the right circumstances) was in power. The Empire was also at an especially bad time financially, after so many years of conflict. So I'd say that whoever did cause the Praxis explosion (provided it was deliberate) did factor those variables in, and decided the timing was correct for this kind of gamble.
The Klingons were not like the Jem'Hadar, in that in spite of being fierce warriors, and proud, they did have a lot to lose as well. And, as stated at the dinner on board the Enterprise at STVI, they were worried about their future and spent a lot of time thinking about it. So even if desperate times could have thrown them into a full scale conflict with the Federation, I don't believe they were ready to make that gamble. And the Federation knew it.
Finally, I'd like to point out that when the reward is huge (like ending a conflict that had been spanning for over a century, and deactivating for good the worse threat the Federation faced in its history), a risky gamble may seem acceptable. As Rule of Acquisition 62 says: The riskier the road, the greater the profit.
Except peace with the Federation wouldn't necessarily be a good thing.
The Klingons could simply sign a peace treaty with the Federation in order to prevent the Federation from taking advantage of their weakened state. And once they no longer have to worry about being invaded by the Federation, they could go invading weaker races and taking over their resources in order to make up for the loss of Praxis and Qo'nos. Then in a decade or two, they might emerge in an even stronger position.
But what's to stop the Federation from becoming stronger as well? If you look at this in dynamic terms, you have to apply the same logic to the Federation. In fact, with more time, the Federation can add new members, new technologies and grow much faster than the Klingons.
Except that's clearly not the case. Look at what happened with "Yesterday's Enterprise." The Klingons were kicking the Federation's butt. In DS9, the Klingons were able to fight the Cardassians and the Federation at the same time. And that's a Klingon Empire that took a more peaceful route.
What if the Klingons had decided to be more aggressive after Praxis and invaded other races to make up for the loss of Praxis and Qo'nos and then decided to fight the Federation after a couple of decades of build up? You think the Federation would fare better than in "Yesterday's Enterprise" where the Klingons went to war after decades of peace?