2020 Season Preview thread

Sorry, I know these answers aren't paragraphs.

Here are just a few ideas:

1. Tom Papley - Will he play to the standard expected of him given he requested a trade? and Buddy Franklin - With his first full preseason in a long time, will he be back to his best?
2. Jordan Dawson - To continue to develop into one of our best midfielders and one of the comps most underrated young guns.
3. Although finishing 15, there were a lot of positives to come out of the 2019 season. The Swans looked a much better team than #15 but were unable to win their close matches. The performances of Blakey and Dawson showed positive signs.
4. We will have a solid season but miss out on the finals. Ladder position 10.
5. Lack of experience will cause us to lose close games that we should be winning.
6. Whoever Horse picks, it's too early to judge. I'm interested to see how Sam Gray and Lewis Taylor fit into our team. What would this mean for Hayward, Florent and Papley? Will we see Naismith back or will Knoll make his debut?
7. Without sounding like a smart-arse, the competition is extremely strong again this year and every game is important for the Swans. GWS rd 5, Geelong rd 10 and Richmond rd 11 are huge games for the club.

1. Our small forwards as a while need to step up. The Menzel experiment didnt quite pan out and Papley has already been mentioned, but Will Hayward needs to make an impact to show that his slump in 2019 was purely injury-related. Ben Ronke also has an opportunity to try to find some form with his insane first few games now just a distant memory.

2. I'm looking forward to seeing Mills fill the mighty boots of McVeigh and settle into that rebounding halfback position. It seems likely that he will spend a touch more time in the middle than Macca has in recent years, but with a more clearly defined role and the opportunity to stay in the smaller leadership group I think he will do good things.

3. There's nothing new to say here. We were predicted to slide and slide we did. Losing that many experienced players and blooding kids will do that. The younger players like Florent, Dawson and Aliir looked great and many others showed glimpses of their potential so from that perspective there are really positive signs moving forward.

4. I think the club need to be (optimistically) aiming to get back into the 8, but I can see the boys just falling short and finishing 9th. Buddy will set himself up for 1000 in 2021.

5. My concern is a little bit abstract, but I think Tom Harley is at an interesting stage of his career. His first year in charge wasn't quite what he would have liked it to be with the club falling out of the 8 and posting a net loss. I don't want him to panic and try to drastically change anything behind the scenes as a knee jerk reaction to 2019. I think the supporters understand that there's nothing to panic about just yet and I sincerely hope he is on the same wavelength and lets the rebuild run its course.

6. I need to think a bit more about this, I'll put it in the other thread.

7. Playing GWS twice every year was once a blessing. We need to win at least one of these games because I'm not ready for those tables to entirely turn just yet.

Players on notice - Sam Naismith and Callum Sinclair. Yes Naismith has been injured and yes Sinclair has carried the load on his own for two years. But Naismith hasn't had his body right in years and Sinclair was getting monstered in the ruck before his injury. He's also approaching 30. These two need or we will start looking at other rucks. Naismith has age on his side, at 27 he should be hitting his prime. But if Knoll and McLean have good preseasons then I think there will be a genuine contest for the starting ruck spots. Knoll is a pure ruck like Naismith while McLean is a hybrid ruck/KPP like Sinclair. This should be an interesting preseason battle. Also Ronke and Melican to a lesser extent, but I'm willing to put last year down to second year blues and move on.

Players to lookout for - Will Hayward. He looks like he has busted his arse in the offseason and is in shape to absolutely kill it in 2020. If he can do so, then that could be a domino for so many other players. All of a sudden teams will have to defend Papley and Hayward as small forwards, and Ronke is freed up to cause havoc in the forward line as a result. Heeney is then freed up to roam between the midfield and the forward line. Teams can't just double down on Franklin as we have guys at his feet and other tall forwards in Blakey, McCartin, and Reid, that we can kick to. I'm also looking forward to Hewett taking over the midfield bull role and Dawson delivering the ball inside 50.

2019 review - A change of style and a changing of the guard. I was glad to see it happen, but it was painful to watch at times.Ultimately putting a team out as young as ours was always going to mean we would would have consistency issues, and we did. But by and large it was a positive long-term experience where a lot of our younger guys realised they belonged in the AFL.

Expectations for the season- 7th or 8th. A lot of our guys in the 40-80 game range start taking over the team. Franklin kicks 70 and gets his 1000 career goals. We've got an easier schedule this year and I think we'll make the most of it on our way back up the ladder. I could see us finishing as low as 12th, but I think 7-10 will probably be the sweet spot.

Concerns for the season - Our completely revamped backline. McVeigh, Grundy, and Smith might not have played much last year, but they were still around the team the whole time, meaning that the younger guys could lean on them in training. Rampe needs to take over as a leader this year, and Mills needs to be his deputy. Lloyd isn't necessarily a leader in the same sense as those two, he's more of a release valve for when we need to find an easy mark coming out of the back. Those two now own our back 6 and how guys like Melican, Aliir, O'Riordan, Stoddart, and Dawson develop will be hugely influenced by them in my opinion.

Best 22 - I'm working in the other thread next.

Notable games in 2020 - I think there are two stretches of games that will define our season. Rounds 1-7 have some "easy" games, some "mid-level" games, and two tough games. GWS and Brisbane will be very tough to beat, but we are very capable of winning the other 5 games. A 5-2 start to the season would have us looking good and full of confidence going into a tougher stretch before the bye. Rounds 15-22 are a similar stretch in that there are some games that we could struggle with, GWS away for example, but all the other teams in that stretch are very beatable. If we do well in these two stretches of games, we could easily have 10 or 11 wins. Meaning we should make finals with 3 wins in the tougher mid season stretch.

1. Will Hayward - at his best, a potential break out star, but the risk with him is that he's a bit of a one trick pony. He's neither short, nor tall and he doesn't have the tank to play as a mid. With competition for a forward spot extremely hot, he's one that could slip if he's not careful. As a second option, Ben Ronke. He needs more consistency.

2. Jordan Dawson is the obvious one, given how impressive he was last year. But you could almost say he has already emerged, so I'm going to go with James Rowbottom. He showed glimpses last year that he could be the inside-mid needed to replace Joey. This year, hopefully he talks a big stride forward and really impacts games.

3. The end result was about right I would say. With the biggest team regeneration since 2010, the team can be proud to have been so competitive. Their percentage and quarters won show that they easily could have won more games, but 15th meant the club got its first top 5 pick since McVeigh on '02. Other than the emergence of some genuine youth talent (florent, Dawson, Rowbottom) the highlight of the season was the send off for McVeigh, Jack and Smith against the Saints in Round 23.

4. One of the pleasant things about 2019 was having not much expectation and being able to watch the development of individual player. 2020 looks to be more of the same. Hopefully some of the youth take another step forward and start to really dominate games, in particular, Heeney, Hewett and Florent. As for ladder position, anywhere between 10th and 16th is most likely.

5. Probably the main concern is the loss of experience and leadership and what effect that will have on the competitiveness on the field and team culture more broadly. The Bloods culture has become almost mythical in its role in keeping the Swans in the 8 for so long and so hopefully this culture continues with the existing leadership.

Best 22:

FB: Melican, Aliir, Rampe

HB: Mills, Dawson, Lloyd

C: Florent, Hewett, Kennedy

HF: Blakey, Franklin, Hayward

FF: Reid, Sinclair, Papley

Foll: Heeney, Parker, Naismith

INT: Gould, McCartin, Rowbottom, Clarke

7. Big games? It might sound strange, but the games against Carlton, Gold Coast and the Bulldogs are the biggest to me because these matches will be a test of our youth against the other 'young' teams.

claiming Ollie Florent now for the players to look out for, i'll edit this with a full writeup laterz
Players to Watch: Ollie Florent
Heading into his 4th season, Ollie Florent is quickly becoming one of the mainstays of the Swans' senior team, having missed only one game since 2017. While he can have some quiet games, he's also capable of some standout performances through the midfield and wing, using his speed to provide a handy avenue inside 50, as well as being a key part of the Swans' rebound gamestyle. Impressively, some of his best performances in 2019 were during games where the rest of the team struggled, such as a 31 disposal game in Round 5's loss to Richmond and a 29 disposal, 12 contested possession and 9 clearance game against Port in Round 21. Some of his best performances came at the tail end of the year including 3 Brownlow votes in Round 22, which gives Swans fans hope he'll bring that kind of form (and the results of some bulking in the gym during preseason) into 2020 to provide more depth and versatility into a new-look midfield.

Ok here we go

1. Isaac Heeney on notice. Not that his spot in his danger, but with JPK and Buddy getting older he needs to step up as the next reliable game winner. Some consistency in position should help him.

2. George Hewett: similar comment, but I'm expecting him to continue to step up and start replacing JPK this year.

3. Not much to add to others - surprisingly pleasant. I also appreciated watching without the pressure of expecting a win every week!

4. I'm hoping for continued growth that puts us competing for the 8 (but probably just missing out). I think it's more realistic that we'll sit around 12th.

5. I'm concerned about both our medical staff and our trading staff. We used to have some of the best in both categories, but now we get a lot of recurrent soft tissue injuries, and outside the academy we haven't had an impressive off season in at least 5 years. We're a rich club, and we should have a tonne of salary cap space, I want to see major improvements in both areas.

Already given my Ollie Florent Monologue, so here's the rest of it I guess; in this essay I will

1. There's a few players we were hoping would step up and carry some of the load last year- Heeney, Mills and Hewett primarily. While they did have okay years, they didn't quite take control and ownership of the team to ease the load on the senior players quite like we'd hoped. This year, it's crunch time as key retirements open up important roles in the team but also increases the pressure on the new members of the leadership group to step up to the plate. They've had a year to apprentice, now let's see how they go as the Swans' Plan A.
    
2. it's ya boi, ollie florent, back at it again with another preseason [see previous comment]
    
3. well that was a bit shit
   Look, it had to happen sometime. We'd been predicted to fall out of the 8 for about 5 years now, so eventually they were gonna be right. As much as it was a bit disappointing (and felt quite uncomfortable), 2019 was really a development year, getting games into a brigade of youth, with the Swans being the youngest or second-youngest team in the comp for much of the tail-end of the season. For a lot of us, we mostly wanted to see how the team would be competitive and fight out games despite a lack of experience, and for the most part they did okay. Narrow losses to Collingwood and GWS were indicative of a team that just lost out to more experienced sides at the end, and that's okay. For where we ended up on the ladder, our percentage was decent, and it was a good building year for seasons to come.
    
4. Great Expectations (jk not really)
   We'll probably miss finals, but that's not really the goal with this season, it's more changing the guard and building a team that's gonna play together for the future. I'd say realistically around 9th-13th would be the aim, showing some improvement from last year (but finals would be nice if it happened).
   Outside of the ladder predictions, I would expect a bit more consistency in the way we played from last year. As expected from a young team, the intensity and contest was prone to fluctuate, allowing teams to score quickly and heavily when we dropped off, especially in the last few minutes of each quarter, but really stopping their scoring when we were 'on'. Another year older (please be wiser) and I'd expect those drop offs to be less frequent and shorter when they do occur as the players get fitter and more used to the intensity of the game at senior level.
    
5. look over yonder i guess, no best 22 here kid (it's going in the other thread)
    
6. We've got (on paper) a much easier draw than in previous years, so that's something. Maybe I'll edit this later, Max, maybe I won't. It's a surprise. We all love surprises.

i've tried to avoid rehashing everything that's been said:

1. Players on notice: on notice is a bit strong, but of those that haven't been listed I'll say Robbie Fox. I think he really has to show something this year. Didn't get much game time and from memory wasn't knocking it out of the park. I just don't want another Towers clogging the spot.
2. Players to lookout for. Ryan Clarke - I think that with midfield shake up there is a real opportunity for him to step up and be one of the core pillars of our engine room going forward. We've had a history of successfully recycling players, he showed enough last year to warrant further interest for mine.
3. 2019 review - tough to watch at times, but really hopeful. I've got faith in our youth.
4. Expectations for the season: 7-12. We are a lot better than 15th.
5. Concerns for the season: injuries in the ruck, and our back 6 not standing up under the pressure it will likely face with a developing midfield. And of course, i50 deficiency, it is so painful to watch poor entries so I really hope we get it together.
6. Best 22: my only comment is please god let Naismith go uninjured and back into form. I really don't want Sinclair as our only ruck again.
7. Notable games in 2020: R10 v Geelong - coming off two weeks of travel against what I believe to be quality opposition. R19 v GWS. should be a real barometer for how we are travelling as a team vs some quality, high pressure opponents

I hope I put in enough detail, wanted to include some stats, but you've said that you've got all of that sorted. Anyway, here's my summary:

Players on notice (Note: James Rose has been delisted so he can't be chosen, sorry fellas)

Ben Ronke seems the obvious one, seeing as he had a tough time breaking into the team at the start of the year, but he finished off really strongly in the last few rounds so I’ll focus on someone else. The other player that really should be on notice now would be Ryan Clarke for my mind. He is a serviceable player, did a couple of tagging jobs really well when he got a chance in the team, but I think it’s going to get a lot tougher for him to get chances with our offseason recruits and draftees. Sydney’s core midfield group is pretty locked down with Kennedy, Hewett, Parker, Heeney and now even Florent seeming like best 22 locks. It leaves basically only 1 wing position which will be fought over by Rowbottom, Dylan Stephens, Lewy Taylor and Ryan Clarke. Looking at those names, I would put Ryan Clarke dead last in the pecking order at the moment, so unless he lifts his possessions, his pressure etc. I can’t see him getting many games, which would put him on the path to delisting.

Players to lookout for (No repeats, if someone does a paragraph on a player please choose someone else)

Sam Gray, definitely the best pickup we’ve gotten in the past couple of years. Still can’t believe Port were happy to let him go. He is a goal-kicking jet, and from what i’ve seen of him in other games and highlights, he puts really good forward pressure, tackles well and is damn good at marking. Seeing him team up with Papley and Hayward is going to be really exciting this year.

2019 review (I'll cover the stats stuff so the only thing necessary is a summary)

Been watching people on r/afl have Sydney dropping out of the 8 for the past 5 years or something, and they’ve finally gotten their wish. It was a tough season to watch, but there were plenty of encouraging signs. We had a number of close matches, even with top 8 sides like GWS and Collingwood, and our percentage was pretty high for a bottom 5 team, which shows that we have the quality there in the team, we just need to have our midfield lift its output.

Expectations for the season (Including ladder position)

We have a much easier draw now, and I think we will bounce back pretty strongly this year. I’m not sure we can make finals, that probably depends on the other teams in the 7-12 bracket, but I would say that ending up anywhere from 9-12 is definitely an achievable goal. My reasons for thinking this is because of a combination of things:

• Aside from our easier draw, missing finals means the entire squad has finally had the chance to have a full preaseason

• we have our no. 1 ruckman Naismith returning, which should make us a lot more competitive in the midfield with a dual ruck set-up, this will also allow Aliir to play in the defence like he’s meant to

• we’ve been pouring games (and some finals experience as well) into our younger brigade for the past 2-3 years, so it's not like we're starting from scratch, we've been rebuilding on the run for a while, so as we saw with Papley and Dawson last year, players like Florent, Rowbottom, Hayward etc. are going to start to breakout a bit more

• our draft and free agency crop is actually really good this year. Gray, Stephens and hopefully Gould also will make a big impact

Concerns for the season (Trading for Daniher is a valid concern)

I have only 1 major concern at the moment; Longmire doesn’t seem keen to let Heeney settle in a position, preferring to use him as a stopgap wherever he’s needed at the moment. Injuries to other players might be forcing his hand but doing this isn’t allowing Heeney to be his best. What I would love to see is Heeney spend the whole year in the midfield, where he can impact the play the most.

Best 22 (I'll talk more about that in a second)

Put my team up in the other post

Notable games in 2020 (Anything on the fixture that looks like a big game or games)

Whichever round Franklin reaches 1000 goals. Even with his injury now, I still believe he can eke out 15-20 games this season and that should be more than enough to get him over the line.

We also have a really hard stretch before the bye where we play the Eagles, Hawks, Cats and Tigers back to back which will be a real tough challenge.

1. Players on notice: Fox, Ronke, Bell, Wicks, Melican, Ling, Stoddart - they've come close, at times they've played regularly, but none have solidified their place in the squad, concerning because we've had to play with a fairly long injury list in the last two years which should have been that opportunity for them to take. Fox, Ronke, Melican especially seeing as they've been part of our starting 22 at some point in their careers and have since fallen out of favour.

2. Wicks showed his footy nous last year, and showed great defensive pressure as well, something that has been lacking in recent times. Not in my best 22 at the start of the season, but if he continues to improve, could be in the reckoning by the midway point.

3. Disappointing, the fall was quick and heavy, there were players who seemed to plateau while other teams improved. I didn't think we'd make finals, but I also didn't think we'd fall that far down. Blessing in disguise, we managed to nab Stephens who seems like he'll be a good player for the future.

4. Mid-table 10-11th, a large part of last year was having the consistency across the four quarters, and our established recruits should help with that this year, which should hopefully mean we'll turn a few more of those close games into wins. Won't make the 8 as I don't think we've got the attacking plan down pat yet, but we are definitely heading towards being to score more, while absorbing a hell of a lot of pressure. We'll return to the 8 in 2021.

5. Injury to Naismith. Sinclair can definitely shoulder the ruck responsibilities but he is much more effective up front as a forward, especially considering our woes in scoring. I still think this is our Achilles Heel at the moment, not having a dedicated second ruckman. Knoll could be the answer but we'll need to see how he goes, if he can be that mobile ruck that Grundy has become for the Pies, he could become very valuable in the future.

Best 22

7. Stephens and Ling make their debut.

For concerns for the season - how the gameplan continues to evolve. This isn't an inside contested team any more, the team is more full of running players and outside mid/small forward hybrids, dangerous when they win the ball into space but not really built to get first use a lot.

Recruiting decisions suggest the list transition is deliberate and they don't seem concerned about the loss of inside midfield power. Stephens was seemingly recruited to lean into this trend, and they didn't even bid on the more inside mid in Tom Green. The outside acquisitions in Taylor and Gray also fit it, while Chad Warner, the inside mid they went for, was the last national draft pick down in the 30 range. That leaves only Kennedy and Hewett as proper ball winning bulls and maybe Heeney and Parker as decently talented at it among their other roles.

They should continue to develop into a more aggressive passing team, looking inboard into the corridor, going for long and angled kicks as they transition, trying to burst out of stoppages with the run of guys like Florent, Heeney, Hayward, Papley, and hopefully Stephens, and playing on from marks more.

The trouble comes when all this results in turnovers as they learn when and how to be taking risks.

Title: We better not shit the bed this year, we're all out toilet paper

Better late than never!

1. Players on notice - Melican. Looked to be well off the pace last year and had difficulty in containing opposition forwards. Hopefully it all starts to come together for him this year though. Also, it's been mentioned by others but Ronke needs to show more consistency, while Fox needs to show he can actually play a role in the side.

2. Players to Look Out For - Chad Warner. Maybe I've watched too much cricket this summer and am now convinced that anyone with the surname of Warner is a gun, but I've got a good feeling about the Chad. Iffy pre-season game notwithstanding (where everyone was off anyways), I've liked what I've heard and seen of him - hoping he can have a solid year in the NEAFL and break through for a debut sooner rather than later. Also wouldn't mind seeing what Elijah Taylor is capable of at some point.

3. 2019 - the recession we had to have. Was shit at first when reality was sinking in (coinciding with us playing our clunkiest footy for the year), but was fairly enjoyable once all expectations were chucked out the window and each match was just enjoyed on its own merits. Seeing the young players develop and the side grow as a whole made for a surprisingly positive year in my view, and set us up well for the future.

4. Expectations - Ehhh... sadly I don't see us making a serious dent in the finals race this year, and it could be another year of enduring tough lessons and growing pains. End of though, I'll be happy with a competitive effort week-in week-out for the season. Expecting a finish between 10th and 17th.

5. Concerns - the midfield. There's plenty of decent players in the side now, but as a collective, I'm still worried about whether the midfield is capable of matching it with other sides. Moreover, everyone around us looks to be improving and I dunno if the Swans will see as big a jump in performance for this year.

6. Best 22 - other thread

7. Key matches - The opening rounds 1-4 (against 'easier' sides who didn't make finals last year) will be a good indicator where we are at - if we can win most of those, we'll be right on track, but a rough start will probs mean for a long season, especially with a crunch of tougher matches mid-season.

The final 4 rounds will also be an indicator as to how the side is developing - younger sides often tire out a bit towards the end of the season (and toward the end of matches) but with any luck the team will be able to finish the season on a strong note. Here's to Season 2020.