Welcome to my offseason roundup, where I will be taking a look at the past, present and future of the Chiefs from the armchair GM's perspective. With all of us still feeling very excited about Chiefs football after the amazing SB win, the fanbase's attention is beginning to turn toward the offseason and the 2020 season. Hopefully this post (along with the others in this series) will be a good resource for those wondering what Brett Veach and the rest of the FO will be thinking about over the next few months. With the draft less than 100 days away, I will try to get all of this series out before the key offseason events begin.

Part 1 - Past: Evaluating Brett Veach's Draft Performance (here)

Part 2 - Present: Evaluating the Current Roster and Cap Situation (here)

Part 3 - Present: Identifying Roster Needs and Offseason Strategy (<--- you are here)

Part 4 - Future: Looking at Potential Draft Targets (TBD)

Part 5 - Future: Looking at Potential FA/Trade Targets (TBD)

Today, I will be building on my last post about the Chiefs' present roster. I recommend at least skimming my Part 2 on the state of the current roster, where I talked a bit about our cap situation and placed each player under contract in 2020 into a tier based on how likely they are to be back given their cap hits. Obviously you don't have to agree with everything I wrote there, but it will serve as a starting point for today's post. Today, I will take a deeper look into the state of the current roster, with a particular focus on identifying which position groups are strongest and weakest, so that we can get a sense of where the FO will be most looking to add pieces. I am not going to do any deep dives into specific targets, however - that will be saved for the next two posts.

In order to do this, I'm going to give a projection of the Chiefs' current depth chart given the 35 players currently on the roster. I am going to use some formatting to mark how likely each player is to actually be back on the team. Bolded players like Patrick Mahomes are the players that are basically certain to return. Players in normal formatting, like Dustin Colquitt, are those likely to be back but that could be cut if necessary to make space. And players in italics, like Cam Erving, are those I judge to be very likely cut candidates. Finally, I've put an asterisk (*) next to the players who were rehabbing significant injuries at the end of the year, since we don't know exactly what sort of shape they'll be in at the beginning of next season.

The last thing I would say is simply to caution fans to stay reasonable when discussing the talent on the roster. I don't know about you, but if I had a nickel for every time I heard last offseason that Demarcus Robinson was a legit WR2, or that Dorian O'Daniel was an ideal starting LB for the modern NFL, or that there would be no drop-off from Kareem Hunt to Damien Williams, or that Armani Watts was ready to be a a legit starting NFL safety...well, I'd own a nicer car. Fans tend to see the best in their bottom-of-the-roster prospects because we fill in missing data with optimism. That isn't to say that you shouldn't be excited about some of the talented young players we've got...but when you hear that Darwin Thompson has elite RB potential, or that Ben Niemann is ready to start at LB, or that Rashad Fenton is going to be a lockdown corner in the slot, just remember to take all that with a sizable grain of salt.

2020 Depth Chart Projection: Offense

Position	Starter	Backup	Depth
QB	Patrick Mahomes
RB	Damien Williams	Darwin Thompson	Darrel Williams*
FB
Fast WR	Tyreek Hill	Mecole Hardman
Big WR	Sammy Watkins	Byron Pringle
TE	Travis Kelce
LT	Eric Fisher	Cam Erving
LG	Martinas Rankin*	Nick Allegretti
C	Austin Reiter
RG	Laurent Duvernay-Tardif
RT	Mitchell Schwartz

Position Group Evals: Offense

The Chiefs' offense returns its biggest pieces next year across each position: Mahomes, top skill players Williams, Hill, and Kelce, and lynchpin tackles Fisher and Schwartz. However, some retooling and added depth would be beneficial in order to keep things rolling for the long term.

The first need is for a backup QB. With Mahomes locked in as the franchise's future and cap space tight it would be surprising to see the Chiefs pay $4M to another veteran backup like Henne. Kyle Shurmur is still under contract and will presumably compete with a cheaper vet or UDFA for the backup job in the preseason.

RB is not the need that pundits are making it out to be. Assuming Darrel Williams can return and give the Chiefs a bit of a bruising option, the Chiefs could be okay going into the 2020 season without upgrading this position. However, the current group is definitely not elite and Damien Williams is on the last year of his deal, so it wouldn't be shocking to see the Chiefs invest a draft pick or some cap space into a young RB if the value is right. Reid usually likes to have 4 RBs on the roster so I would expect to see an addition of some sort.

At FB, I expect the Chiefs to continue bringing back Anthony Sherman on one year deals.

WR is the first position of significant need. Watkins is a very likely cap casualty and while Mecole Hardman is talented, I would question whether he can be a true WR2 with Tyreek Hill being such a similar style of player. Byron Pringle will likely make the roster for his special teams contributions and knowledge of the scheme but it would be surprising if the Chiefs relied on him to play a significant role offensively. While some might argue for letting a JAG play WR and relying on Mahomes to make things happen, Green Bay's current offensive struggles show that that strategy can only take you so far. I would argue that it would be worthwhile to invest in another offensive weapon at WR. In free agency, options are a bit limited, but somebody like Devin Funchess or Breshad Perriman could potentially be brought in if the money was right. Fortunately for the Chiefs, this is an incredibly deep draft class at WR. There is size, speed and talent that should be available in every round for the Chiefs to target. I would keep an eye out for the Chiefs to potentially shock some people and go after somebody like Laviska Shenault or Justin Jefferson as early as round 1. Regardless of how they do it, the Chiefs will likely need to add two WRs to bring the group up to the standard 5, and Reid has even rostered 6 WRs at times.

The Chiefs will need a backup TE - possibly even two - but it would be surprising if they invested a lot into the position. Bringing in Blake Bell and Deon Yelder on the cheap worked out alright this season, so I'd look for something similar to happen for 2020. If the value is right in the later end of the draft, the Chiefs could pick up a rookie.

The offensive line is where everyone is hoping for some big investment. Protecting Patrick Mahomes is obviously a critical need for the team going forward. At OT, the Chiefs have two solid starters on two-year deals, so I wouldn't expect any fireworks - but drafting a developmental backup wouldn't be a bad idea at all.

The interior OL is where the larger issues are. The best case scenario for the current roster is to have Rankin/Reiter/LDT playing LG/C/RG. That group doesn't have a ceiling much higher than "average", and the only depth behind them is unproven rookie Nick Allegretti. The Chiefs will likely look to add at least two additional linemen, probably via one FA veteran and one draft pick. The problem here is that given how much cap is already invested into the position group, we are probably going to be priced out of the top FA targets like Joe Thuney or Brandon Scherff. Additionally, while the draft has a glut of Day 2-level interior linemen, nobody in the class has yet shown themselves (in my opinion) to clearly be worth a first-round pick or be automatic day-one starters. Given the complexity of the offensive system, the other needs on the roster, and the lack of cap space, it wouldn't be too surprising to me if the Chiefs did in fact go into the 2020 season starting Rankin/Reiter/LDT and reinforcing the line primarily with developmental backups. That would be disappointing for many, but the realities of navigating the cap mean that Veach will not be able to fix everything.

2020 Depth Chart Projection: Defense

Position	Starter	Backup	Depth
DE1	Frank Clark	Breeland Speaks*
DE2	Alex Okafor*	Tanoh Kpassagnon
1T	Derrick Nnadi	Khalen Saunders
3T
ILB	Anthony Hitchens	Damien Wilson
OLB	Ben Nieman	Dorian O'Daniel
CB	Charvarius Ward
NCB	Rashad Fenton
FS	Juan Thornhill*	Armani Watts
SS	Tyrann Mathieu	Daniel Sorensen

Position Group Evals: Defense

Starting out at DE, this is a position that is critical in the modern NFL - every team could always use some extra EDGE talent. And Spags would probably like to roster 5 guys to rotate through at DE. But absent a surprise decision to move on from Okafor or Speaks, the current roster looks pretty solid at this position. With Kpass having come on so strong and Clark playing better as his injuries cleared up, it would be surprising to see a large cap investment here. A draft pick on a good DE would make sense if there was a BPA opportunity.

At DT, things get interesting. Derrick Nnadi and Khalen Saunders both looked good this year - Nnadi especially - but both project more as 1T run-stuffers than dynamic 3Ts. The obvious wildcard here is Chris Jones. If he is re-signed, then the Chiefs probably do not have the need or money to go big at this position. If he is tagged and traded, however, finding a dynamic interior pass rusher (or two) becomes a need for the defense. There are a few draft candidates who are currently projected in the late 1st-mid 2nd range like Neville Gallimore, Ross Blacklock or Justin Madubuike that become interesting options in this scenario. In free agency, it's a bit sketchier. There aren't too many super-dynamic DTs projected to hit the market, and it's questionable just how much of a savings you might get going after somebody like Mike Daniels or Javon Hargrave. The Jones saga is likely to take up the bulk of our attention this offseason, so we'll be keeping a close eye on this one.

At LB, things are again interesting. Most would agree that the Chiefs LBs are not very good, but the team is returning every 'backer who made a significant contribution in 2020 - only losing Darron Lee, who never ended up seeing many snaps. Given the Chiefs won the Super Bowl with this group, the rise of the base nickel, and the decline of the every-down "thumper" LB, there's an argument to be made that reinforcing the other two levels of the defense would be more impactful than making big changes here. That said, Damien Wilson's contract makes him an obvious cut candidate, and if he could be replaced in the draft by a talented rookie like Kenneth Murray or Patrick Queen, it could help solidify the position for the future. As for free agency, there are certainly interesting options - Cory Littleton or Jamie Collins come to mind - but it doesn't seem likely that LB is the place where we could afford to make a splashy signing. More likely would be a cheap veteran to hold things down, or possibly the promotion of Niemann or DOD in the hierarchy.

The position with the most glaring need on the entire roster is clearly CB. Ward and Fenton are a start to a good CB room, but you need more than crickets to fill it out. And Ward is on the last year of a UDFA deal, which will obviously mean a huge raise going forward. The Chiefs absolutely need to begin resetting this position group with cost-controlled contracts, so drafting a CB highly is a necessity. Fortunately it's a very deep draft at the cornerback position and the Chiefs should be able to find solid value at any of their first three picks. But they'll also want to make an immediate-impact signing if they can in free agency. Expect to hear the name Chris Harris Jr. bandied about a lot, as bringing in an elite slot veteran for a year or two would align quite well with the current timeline. Other FAs that could make sense would be Brian Poole in the slot, or guys like Darqueze Dennard, James Bradberry, or the return of Bashaud Breeland on the outside.

Finally is the S group, which went from the defense's biggest weakness in 2018 to arguably their biggest strength in 2019. The current group is great and does not need much improvement. That said, Sorensen could still be cut, and Thornhill is dealing with an ACL injury which could well keep him out for part of 2020. It would not be out of the question for the Chiefs to draft a safety they like if they see great value, or bring in a cheaper vet to replace Sorensen. But Mathieu and Thornhill will be the top two guys no matter what.

2020 Depth Chart Projection: Specialists

Position	Starter
LS	James Winchester
P	Dustin Colquitt
K	Harrison Butker

The Chiefs should be looking for options to replace Dustin Colquitt, as he's overpaid and overage in the twilight of his career. Butker is locked in and I don't know anything about the NFL's LS landscape.

Putting it Together: Developing an Offseason Plan for the 2020 Chiefs

Given the above, what is Brett Veach trying to get done this offseason? What is the FO's likely plan of attack?

As an armchair GM, I think of team needs breaking down into five tiers, based on how critical the need is for the upcoming season.

Tier 1 needs are the position groups that simply cannot remain unchanged going into the regular season.
Tier 2 needs are the position groups that would be among the team's biggest weaknesses going into the regular season if they remained unchanged. But, every team is going to have at least one position of weakness, and these position groups could be schemed around if necessary.
Tier 3 needs are the mediocre groups that you'd like to upgrade if possible, but they'd be fine as they are if need be. Not a big strength, not a key weakness.
Tier 4 needs are the positions of strength that you'd be happy with going into the season. But they aren't perfect, and maybe you could get a guy for the future, a better backup, or a luxury upgrade.
Tier 5 needs are not needs because the position group is basically as good as it's gonna get.

In classifying the roster into these tiers, I assume that where there are currently empty slots, you fill them with UDFA-level talent. So at TE for example, there is a "need" in that we currently only have one TE signed and will roster at minimum two. But I'm tiering TE as a Tier 4 need because a TE group of Kelce + a random UDFA would still be a position of strength. On the other hand, a CB group of Ward/Fenton/3 UDFAs would be pretty trash.

If I were in charge, I would break the Chiefs' needs into the following tiers:

• Tier 1: CB
• Tier 2: IOL, WR, DT
• Tier 3: LB, RB
• Tier 4: TE, OT, DE, S, P
• Tier 5: QB, K

How does this line up with consensus? I think most people will agree with my Tier 1, 4, and 5 rankings (or at least have only minor quibbles), and will agree that IOL is a high-priority Tier 2 need. I think that the average pundit has LB and RB a tier higher than I have them, and has WR and DT a tier lower than I have them. Assuming there's mostly agreement about the other positions, let me briefly justify my opinions on these four.

I would agree with most that LB and RB are not strengths of the current Chiefs roster. But, the Chiefs are currently looking to return basically every key contributor from these two position groups. LeSean McCoy did not contribute significantly down the stretch, and neither did Darron Lee. The fact that the Chiefs just won the Super Bowl with these groups - and without either group being a devastating weakness that absolutely had to be carried by the rest of the team - seems to me a reason to be comfortable with them going into 2020. Again, neither group would be a strength without an upgrade, but I don't think they would be big weaknesses either, which is how I'm differentiating Tiers 2 and 3.

I consider WR a Tier 2 need - where most others do not - largely because I do not consider Mecole Hardman to be a viable WR2 next to Tyreek Hill. (Or at least, I am not counting on it - of course, I hope that I'm wrong, and that Hardman grows into the role over the next few years.) There is a reason why most players in this mold of smaller, speedy, "gadget"-esque WRs (like DeAnthony Thomas, Tavon Austin, etc.) do not become elite receivers like Tyreek Hill. I think having Hill makes it easier for Chiefs fans to imagine that Hardman will also be an elite WR, and discount the more likely possibility that this season is closer to Mecole's ceiling. If he continues to be a great return man and sustain a 20 YPC average on limited targets, that would be a perfectly good career - but there is a reason he saw so few snaps even as the season went on. Fitting two players like Hill and Hardman onto the field consistently poses a challenge for a play designer, where complementing Hill with a bigger WR (like Sammy Watkins!) seems to me a much more natural fit. Assuming I am correct and Hardman is more of a complementary piece than a true starting WR, and assuming Byron Pringle is not going to suddenly become the next Sammy Watkins and is more likely to be a solid WR4 than anything else, the Chiefs are missing a WR2. In our offense the WR2 is likely to be in the field 80+% of the time and so missing that player is a big hole.

At DT, I think people are still considering Chris Jones to be a Chief, when the reality is he is currently not tied to the organization. We will collectively talk a lot about how realistic or intelligent it would be for the Chiefs to re-sign Jones but no matter where you land I think there's a strong, strong chance he is traded for picks. That leaves a hole in the interior line. While Nnadi and Saunders are both good pieces, Spags wants to rotate along the d-line and neither player has shown the ability to be a truly disruptive force on the interior. Nnadi/Saunders/UDFA/UDFA would in my mind be a position of weakness, which makes this a Tier 2 group that needs some investment.

Going into the offseason with 4 weak position groups (CB, IOL, WR, DT), limited cap space, and limited draft capital is a challenging situation for Brett Veach. I don't think any GM would be able to completely fix all of these problems. As I said above, you're always going to have a few positions where you're weak. The question is, how many, and how well can you use your strengths to play around your weaknesses. If I'm Veach, I'm trying to get two of these four position groups out of the "weakness" category while making sure no additional groups slip into the weakness category. If I can go into the season with only one weak position room on each side of the ball (say WR and DT, for example), that seems like a pretty good spot to be in. If we can re-invest in some of the other groups along the way - say, by drafting a developmental OT, or a talented TE2 - all the better.

In the next two posts, I'll be diving into the draft prospects and FA targets that the FO may be looking at to address the issues identified today. As always, I welcome any comments or suggestions on the series.