10nl Hand Analysis

BTN (BTN): 169.6 BB

SB (SB): 53.3 BB

BB (BB): 399.4 BB (22 hands 9/9/0)

UTG (UTG): 100 BB

MP (MP): 120 BB

Hero (CO): 381.5 BB

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SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Dealt to Hero: 6d6h

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop (5.5 BB, 2 players): 9c3d5s

BB checks, Hero bets 2.2 BB, BB calls 2.2 BB

Betting range here on the smaller side. We are very deep and only a single raise pot. Villain has a lot of folds here and I figure I can get value from a 3 or 5. If villain does have a nine, there are a lot of turns and rivers that could make it hard to call. Plus I can pick up equity on some turns too. Villains range: sets, bunch of 9x, some 5/3x. And some overs with backdoor flush.

Turn (9.9 BB, 2 players): 6c

BB checks, Hero bets 7.2 BB, BB calls 7.2 BB

Now I am ahead of all villains holding except 99. Going for value and on the larger size. I would continue here with most over pairs and turned flush draws. I expect villains range to be similar to flop. Folds his overs that didn't pick up the flush. Mostly putting villain on 9x here tho.

River (24.3 BB, 2 players): 9h

BB bets 18.2 BB, Hero raises to 65.5 BB, BB raises to 199.9 BB, Hero ??

First thoughts were the 9 is a great card. Then villain donks for 3/4 pot. Awesome, this could be a flopped set or random 9x, both of which would call my raise. Should I go larger here? Realistically, there are still 3 potential hands that I lose to (99, 9d5d, 9s6s) and 6 sets (33 and 55) that I can get a call from. I would kind of expect villain to just call the raise with his 9x. Then villain re-raises and I now need to call ~135 bigs to win ~424 bigs. I need to be good here close to 1/3 times and if villain is raising all of his boats I am more than 1/3. Question is, do I jam? I doubt villain can fold the 6 combos I beat.