What I'm afraid of vs. what I'm not afraid of in the 2020 election

I think my main anxiety over the 2020 election is that the GOP are going to try to force the Ukraine investigation as a "Hillary's emails" or Benghazi-level scandal once Coronavirus dies down. The one possible (and maybe even likely) saving grace is that the email scandal and Benghazi were already heavily talked about before the 2016 election and Hillary had been conservatives' punching bag since the late 1990s.

So those scandals were really just the icing on the cake, whereas Biden's negative baggage only emerged within last year, so that intense feeling of corruption just isn't there with the people Biden is winning back from anti-Hillary voters.

His past "touchy-feely" moments only seem to anger hardline leftists (who likely wouldn't have voted for a non-Bernie candidate anyway), and Hunter Biden resulted in Trump's impeachment, which may become a serious threat to Republicans in swing states as it hurt their image as being non-corrupt (esp. with them not allowing further testimony).

I just hope it's enough to seriously sway the needle. I don't mean to fear-monger, but a lot can happen between now and November. I don't want Biden to fall to another James Comey-level October surprise, but that's a real fear to have. If it's any consolation, Bloomberg seems to be making good on his promise to bury Trump with negative ads once the primary's over, so that'll probably do some good. We need to remind people about Trump's actual, current fuckups compared to Biden's alleged, past fuckups.

Also, a key reason why Bernie stayed in the primaries so long in 2016 (thereby making it harder for Hillary to pivot towards fighting Trump) was that he was still winning states or at least losing by slim margins, so he could argue that he still had a chance. Now? That narrative is quickly growing false, and key voters are noticing. Bernie's only argument for staying in now is so voters can see a 1v1 debate on Sunday and decide definitively next Tuesday. If he faces decisive losses in OH, FL, AZ & IL, that narrative crumbles.

And that's looking increasingly likely by the day, factoring in Biden's minority support and working class support, plus Bernie's Fidel Castro apologia (which is a big no-no in Florida). After the 17th, I don't see Bernie being able to justify staying in without looking pathetic, resulting in heavier losses.

But I still do think Coronavirus will remain a key issue come General Election, especially in terms of crisis handling. This is a shared experience. Never forget that. This is this gen's Hurricane Katrina, Cuban Missile Crisis, Iran Hostage Crisis, or dare I say, 9/11. Not because of the scale of the legitimate damage, but in how it has totally invaded the American psyche. We will remember this. People voted out Hoover bc of the Great Depression, Carter bc of the Iran Hostage Crisis & late 1970s recession, HW Bush for the early 1990s recession, the Dems in 2000 bc of Clinton's impeachment, and the GOP in 2008 bc of the housing bubble burst. Change will happen, we just need to make it happen.

The reason why, ultimately, I think Biden is a better candidate than Bernie is that you can make fairly easy comparisons with McGovern's campaign in 1972 and Bernie's. McGovern relied so much on anti-Vietnam War Americans (so a lot of young people; much like Bernie's camp), that Nixon had a "Silent Majority" of supporters and won handily (only losing Mass. and DC). Bernie doesn't realize that the loudest voices aren't necessarily the majority.

Maybe some Bernie supporters will abstain/vote for Trump/third party in protest. But I don't think those people would have voted Democratic anyway. If this was between Biden and someone else, they would have probably been abstaining or voting third party regardless. Plus, I don't think third parties will have as big a presence as in 2016/2000/1992. In 2016, the Libertarian candidate was a former gov. & the Green Party candidate was a known party figure. Now? They're both going for general nobodies, so no threat of being a spoiler candidate.

The demographic that pivoted Trump into victory in 2016 was the suburban working class vote. Considering that's what gave us the Democratic victory in the House in 2018, and Biden's been doing very well in that demographic against Bernie, they're the ones who can flip the WH. And taking into account that Biden has already formed a Public Health Advisory Committee, he's already proving that he can take charge better than Trump in a crisis. I hope that we, the electorate, will recognize that when it comes time for the General.