How can TSM secure playoffs? Predictions and analysis

So, it's that time again to bite our nails for the run-in to playoffs, and I thought I'd break down a few likely scenarios to put people's minds at rest. I'm not an analyst but have watched highlights of most of the games this split, as well as every TSM game in full. Here's how I think the standings will look after week 8, and what it means for TSM:

1. C9 - 15-1 (beats CLG and 100T)
2. TSM - 10-6 (beats IMT and GGS)
3. FLY - 10-6 (beats IMT and 100T)
4. EG - 9-7 (beats TL and DIG)
5. TL - 7-9 (beats GGS, loses to EG)
6. 100T - 7-9 (loses to C9 and FLY)
7. IMT - 7-9 (loses to TSM and FLY)
8. GGS - 6-10 (loses to TSM and TL)
9. DIG - 6-10 (loses to EG, beats CLG)
10. CLG - 3-13 (loses to C9 and DIG)

So, if these predictions are correct, a 2-0 this weekend locks us for playoffs, as none of the 5th place teams can match our record. I'll not go too deep into the head-to-head and what ranking we could get in this case, but we would be locked for 4th at absolute worst.

If we only beat IMT, the standings are the same except we are now tied 4th with EG, and GGS joins the fray in the 5th place tie. For us to miss playoffs in this scenario, we would have to lose out in week 9, as well at least three of TL, 100T, IMT and GGS going 2-0, and EG winning at least one game. Even if we did lose out, the latter half of this requirement is extremely unlikely, as both TL and EG must face C9, IMT and EG play each other, and GGS faces FLY. In this scenario, since we would be tied head-to-head with the teams that have more favourable schedules (100T and IMT), the worst (but still likely enough to be in the conversation) outcome would be a tiebreaker for 6th place. TL dropping a game makes this a hell of a lot easier, since they are the only team to hold the 2-0 over us.

If we only beat GGS, IMT now has a 2-0 over us, but GGS cannot catch us in the standings. In this scenario (since we have 2-0 over EG), the only way we miss playoffs is if we lose out, TL wins out (vs both C9 and FLY), EG beats IMT (putting them at least one win above us), 100T wins out, IMT only lose to EG, and we would then play 100T in a tiebreaker for 6th place. Since this in part requires TL to best both C9 and FLY in the same week, as well as EG beating IMT, it's probably quite safe to say that, in the above scenario for standings after week 8, a win against GGS almost guarantees TSM 6th place at worst, and is slightly more favourable than if we only beat IMT as there are less teams in the tiebreaker.

If we lose out, we could place as low as 9th. It's probably not worth analysing this outcome until after this weekend's games.

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Which are the important matches outside of ours? Who should we root for as TSM fans?

Cloud 9?

As much as it hurts to say, TSM fans should all be hoping for C9 to win out from here onwards, since they're already locked for first place and some of the teams they face (EG, 100T, TL) are in the playoff race against us. Ideally they would drop a game to CLG, ensuring no team matches our 17-1 summer 2016 split record without damaging our position in the standings. Expectation (all matches): C9, Dream: C9 only loses to CLG

Week 8

TL vs EG: We desperately need TL to drop a game this week to toughen their run-in as they are the only team to hold a 2-0 over us. This game will likely be close, EG seem to have found their footing in recent weeks but TL has Doublelift back who has to prove he still has what it takes to compete at the top. Since I think TL will probably beat GGS, look for EG to win this game and force TL to either pull a miracle win against C9 or FLY, or miss playoffs entirely. Expectation: EG, Dream: EG

FLY vs IMT/100T: Since FLY are tied for 2nd with us, you'd think we'd want them to lose to secure 2nd for ourselves - however, the teams they face are the teams that could make a late rush up the standings and potentially overtake us. Things look a hell of a lot nicer for TSM if FLY is able to win out this weekend - especially since placing 3rd vs 2nd doesn't matter in the new format, with C9 unlikely to choose TSM as their opponent in the first round. Expectation: FLY, Dream: FLY

TL vs GGS: Similar to the above match vs EG, however I think GGS aren't as explosive a team nor are their players as mechanically skilled, so I give TL the edge even given their poor form. Expectation: TL, Dream: GGS

Week 9

FLY vs TL/GGS: For similar reasoning to the previous TL matches, we just want them to lose as much as possible. If GGS are still in the playoff race at this point then their match is also important for us, but I expect them to be out after this weekend. Hopefully, FLY are able to stay stable in the final 2 weeks of the split and win out. Expectation: FLY, Dream: FLY

DIG vs IMT: An upset by DIG would be absolutely phenomenal here, as it means a win against IMT this weekend all but guarantees TSM playoffs. Expectation: IMT, Dream: DIG

IMT vs EG: Another grudge match between playoff contenders, either of these teams could overtake us in one way or another, and it will all depend on the results of this weekend's games. I think unless we only beat GGS this weekend we would hope for EG to win here but lose to C9, since we could match their wins and still place higher thanks to owning the 2-0 head-to-head, while also keeping IMT as low as possible. If instead IMT hold the 2-0 over us, look for them to keep EG's wins near ours. Expectation: EG, Dream: EG unless we only beat GGS, otherwise IMT

100T vs CLG: Root for CLG to upset 100T and knock them out of playoffs contention, allowing TSM to secure at least 6th place in most scenarios without a tiebreaker. Expectation: 100T, Dream: CLG

This is my first time making a long post like this, so feel free to leave any suggested feedback or edits, and I remind everyone that this is merely my opinion and outlook on the next two weeks (although I do consider multiple cases) based on what I've seen of the split so far. If this gets positive feedback I'll post something similar for next weekend's games, with a bit about how we can achieve each specific final position in the standings.

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TL:DR TSM going 2-0 this weekend locks them for 4th seed at worst. Only beating IMT likely puts them in a scenario where any 3 of 4 teams (IMT, TL, 100T, GGS) must make a strong (almost miracle) run-in to force a tiebreaker that could displace them from playoffs. Only beating GGS puts them in a scenario where any 2 of 3 teams (TL, IMT, 100T) must make a strong run-in AND EG must not drop more than one game to force a tiebreaker that could displace them from playoffs. Losing out is a lot more complicated and depends more on other results. To maximise chances of making it, TSM fans should root for C9 and FLY to win out against other playoff contenders but drop games to teams lower in the standings, and for TL to drop as many games as physically possible, since they are the only team to own the head-to-head against TSM. Placing 2nd, 3rd or 4th is basically the same for TSM in the new format since they are unlikely to be chosen by C9 in the first round.