[DD] COVID Follow up from previous posts
Alright retards, if you've been following my last few posts on COVID I've been tracking this thing and trading based on it. I hope the tendies rained supreme. Bear gang wins again. I do plan on inversing -- but not yet. I'll talk about that at the end...
COVID DD PART 3:
So I'm here to follow up in particular on post 2... I made some models that made forecasts of COVID spread... so how my model has performed to date compared to my forecasts. First and foremost, this is being done before the end of the day... so these numbers should be a bit smaller than the actual. Second off, as this gets exponential into the tens of thousands it overloads the medical system so reporting bias comes into play. I'll also do a forecast for Canada because the dick-tater of leaf-land Castro's love child just got it [3]. Looks like the 'day of the rake' has finally arrived...
Italy Updated:
Anyways, my forecasts still remain but here's Italy... I did make a small error (actually a big error) for the lower bound thetas... so my lower bounds were off by a lot. But anyways my upper bounds were correct so here's the fixed forecast to the end of the month based on a CIR process to account for decreased spread through time on a Ne^(rt) exponential growth model [4]. Anyways, my upper bounds were correct but lower bounds were incorrect. Now the range for the end of the month is between 69,515 - 907,490. So far the model seems to be tracking closest to the 0.05 theta model. Here's the model numbers for your reference [5]. There seems to be a delay of up to two weeks so whatever quarantine measures that are put in place seem to have up to a two week lagg so I think we'll closely track to the 0.05 or 0.00 theta models for the next week or so (link 5).
France Updated:
France seems to be way off so at the highest, expect the 0 theta numbers at best. Might be due to under-reporting bias, the fact that they've taken precautions and banned large events or maybe my models sucks. Anyways, use the lower bound as a high estimate for now. Once it's over 100,000 I mean you've got no clue anyways as far as I'm concerned. So factor that in. [6] I'll try and adjust this model and maybe come up with a new forecast here in the next few days. Regardless president Macaroni just raised the white flag and shut down schools and is probably going to close the borders [7].
USA Updated:
This is the only model where the actual numbers are higher, which is interesting [8]. So I would say we'll probably follow the high theta model and see somewhere around 80,000 sick in the USA by March 31st.
Canada Added:
For Canada I mean... I think the numbers are a lot higher because of a few events that happened recently [9] [10], but here's the forecast based off of a lagged model to try and account for the fact that other countries start to take precautions [11].
Conclusion:
I don't think these forecasts are particularly egregious whatsoever, in fact they're probably ultra conservative in reality. I mean Merkel was briefed and said that 70% of Germany could get this thing [12]. Canada just said the same thing [13] and allotted 1.1bn in response (and very poorly as well look at the numbers, LOLOL).
I don't think Canada has been factored in yet still... but we've got some decent forecasts of what the future looks like from Europe and I still think we need to bet against retirement home stonks.
Plays:
I think there's going to be a flood of people taking their parents out of old folks homes or... worst
USA:
$WELL (Welltower Inc.) -- trading at $45.95 down 50.7% from 52wk high of $93.17
$VTR (Ventas Inc.) -- trading at $27.37 down 63.7% from 52wk high of $75.4 ; div - $3.17
$BKD (Brookdale Senior Living) -- trading at $3.32 down 62.3% from 52wk high of $8.8; no dividend ;
REITS:
$LTC (LTC Properties, Inc.) -- trading at $29.53 down 44.3% from 52wk high of $53.04; div - $2.28
$CTRE (Caretrust REIT Inc.) -- trading at $13.51 down 47.1% from 52wk high of $25.54 ; div - $1.00
$SBRA (Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.) -- trading at $9.64 down 61.3% from 52wk high of $24.95 ; div $1.80
Canada:
$SIA (Sienna Senior Living Inc.) -- trading at $12.52 down 38.5% from 52wk high of $20.35
Reits:
$CSH.UN (Chartwell Senior Living Inc.) -- trading at $10.16 down 35.6% from 52wk high of $15.79
As it stands average US firms are down ~58.9% ; US REITS down 50.9%
SIA only down 38.5% net, CSH.UN only down 35.6% net... And BTW the oil crash should fuck Canada more than the USA so these sToNkS should be much lower. Grab puts on these things.
I wana buy the dip... but not yet... I think we've got another 10% or so maybe more to go... but again it depends if this actually gets worse or not -- I'll be tracking that. I think it will, and I think the bottom is when the USA starts doing the full on quarantines like Italy, that's probably the bottom for me. After that I'm buying long-term options DEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP OTM and holding. Stay tuned.
Posted Mar 13, 2020, 2:19 AM UTC