r/Winkerpackβ€’
Inferin

Your weekly dose of batsoup virus

Look there's a lot of stupid fucking memes here, might as well post some retarded updates instead, I want to bring some semblance of the old wsb back where it was a mix of retard and autism, and well, if I'm the one doing it there's plenty of both.

coronavirus

Massive fed pump and baiting

  • JPOW effectively came up and out saying that they'll backstop all loans with infinite lending and massive QE, pumping the market harder than Winker on l2fba

  • They fucking delayed the senate bill and boomed a few of us that were expecting it to end up like 2008 where stocks sold off after senate approval.

Unemployment numbers

  • Official unemployment numbers are currently at 3.2 million, cutoff was March 20th

  • this should've been bearish but the market was primed by a wide range of numbers and they did a double whammy with senate bill and QE to infinity

  • also there might be some credence to uncertainty in a bull market is bearish while uncertainty in a bear market is bullish, everyone's looking for excuses to get in.

  • The autism crew currently estimates the unemployment claims to be at 6 million

  • https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WLJ1j7igM88C2XysCuN4lMH7W2NUdZq4dnO0DbyR7H4/edit#gid=0

Trading stuff

  • Look stop putting stop losses in obvious places, I can't reference the forum here but there was a lot of bullfuckery going around at SPX 2600 to 2605

  • Everyone from r/investing to technical traders to good fundamental analysts to r/stockmarket to macro analysts are expecting another drop, I've never seen so much agreement on anything of this level.

  • https://imgur.com/UzVxwEa

  • Personal opinion: I'm thinking worst case scenario for traders is that the when market looks like it's taking a huge shit they shut the market down cause at this point they're setting themselves up to enormous failure. Might just be my paranoia speaking.

Stuff that might be worth reading

Edit - I'm sure there's lots of stuff I missed, I'll edit things as I get my scrambled notes in order.

Posted Mar 29, 2020, 6:06 AM UTC Β· edited

2321
winkerpackπŸ¦˜β€’

Solid post. Thanks for the time and effort put into this.

8
titanium_hydraβ€’

Everyone from r/investing to technical traders to good fundamental analysts to r/stockmarket to macro analysts are expecting another drop, I've never seen so much agreement on anything of this level.

This is what kinda scares me in holding puts, inversing is a meme in itself but there are times when a trade can be "right" in a sense but too damn crowded.

8
wootsydudeβ€’

If there's anything I've learned, it's that the market punishes complacency and overconfidence. So I agree, it almost makes too much sense that we'll see another drop, so maybe it won't even happen? (at least not soon)

4
eskmootβ€’

ahh fuck

1
buffalogiraffe787 Maxedβ€’

Yeah this has me worried too.

1
TinyPirateπŸ΄β€β˜ οΈβ€’

Keep this stuff up. And everyone else, maybe less moaning about the other place?

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InferinOPπŸ“šπŸ‘¨β€πŸ’»β€’

Aight noted, I'm part of the group that moans about the other place.

2
row2gobroβŠ‚(β—‰β€Ώβ—‰)぀ β€’

Good stuff thanks for the time.

Seems like there’s also a chance it drops a little to satisfy this speculation and then the bottom falls out a bit later. Seems unlikely to go all in one bang.

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InferinOPπŸ“šπŸ‘¨β€πŸ’»β€’

With how reactive the market is these days (compared to 2008) I fear that when everyone understands that 2+ months of quarantine is more likely than not, the market is going to drop like a brick. If the government was more capable and able to pull off the "hammer and the dance" I'd agree with you but more evidence currently points to the former.

However because I fear a market shutdown I have june puts.

3
row2gobroβŠ‚(β—‰β€Ώβ—‰)぀ β€’

I agree. Was just trying to postulate some other ways that everyone ends up getting fucked by the market not doing what everyone expects.

1
levatorpenisπŸ―πŸ€΄β€’

Gracias, good work

3
gohome01syu425 πŸ˜˜β€’

Very insightful

2
take-profit-plsβ€’

Great stuff. Thank you!

2
ilovecollardgreensβ€’

I appreciate it. Shit moves fast now, forgot about some of this stuff. Cheers

Edit: goddamn the back and forth between OP and the Patricksimon guy is pretty incredible.

2
InferinOPπŸ“šπŸ‘¨β€πŸ’»β€’

Could you tell me what you're referencing? I've been in so many arguments that I don't know which one it is lmao.

1
ilovecollardgreensβ€’

If you go halfway down the fallen angels post you'll see a comment by Patricksimon which is basically a counterpoint to OP. Then they proceed to dive into some deep corporate finance stuff. Pretty awesome even if a lot of it is over my head.

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InferinOPπŸ“šπŸ‘¨β€πŸ’»β€’

Note for anyone confused, this isn't me, it's the op that wrote the Ford stuff. It's definitely a good read but I'm behind on my research to read up and comment on this.

https://ns.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fqk15o/fallen_angels_shitty_cars_worse_debt_and_what_it/flqvltu/

1
whib96Loyal πŸ…±οΈπŸ…ΎοΈβ„ΉπŸ™‡β€β™‚οΈβ€’

Your first link is to a removed post?

2
InferinOPπŸ“šπŸ‘¨β€πŸ’»β€’

Yeah I'm guessing it tripped up the automod cause of too much swearing. I sent in a mod message but they never responded

edit: huh at the time of writing it was definitely available to read at least. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1L1EcKgHpeP-1gAnLZlBPa9bfCGRtU-aiWmT9vpGv8gI/edit

1
sexxcauldronβ€’

Once again check out r/medicine for full depression.

Don't forget r/COVID19positive for all the stories about how much it will absolutely fuck up your life when you get it!

Thanks for the post, good info here

1
eskmootβ€’

the second sub there is a shit show imho

3