COVID cases and growth rates across Canada and the Provinces
I've found that almost all sources of COVID case counts do not show growth rates or previous data in context. This makes it difficult to know if we are making in any progress stopping the exponential growth that makes the spread of these pandemics so rapid.
Here is a link to the whole album: https://imgur.com/a/ffs59Du
To help visualize what is happening, I have plotted cases and growth rates for the country and each province on annotated graphs that show when certain measures were introduced (like closing businesses, borders, schools), and when we should begin to see the decreasing growth rates from those measures.
The second plot for the country and each province shows new cases in the past week versus total cases on a logarithmic plot. It can be difficult to tell if you are moving away from exponential growth by looking at cases and growth, but on these plots exponential growth is indicated by a straight line. Downwards deviation from this line means that the exponential growth pattern has been broken, and can be an indication that the pandemic has plateaued, or peaked, or may shortly if the current measures are kept up.
Canada cases
Canada growth
It seems like we are beginning to see gains in lowering growth rates from physical distancing and closing borders, but the second plot shows we are still in exponential growth. The next week we will hopefully begin to see if our measures are effective.
BC cases
BC growth
It seems whatever BC is doing is working, as n the second plot it seems they are starting to move away from exponential growth. They seem to have closed businesses earlier than most other provinces so maybe this is a result of that.
AB cases
AB growth
Alberta also is deviating away from exponential growth, and has rapidly decreasing growth rates. They did not close businesses as early as other places but they have tested more widely per capita that every other province.
ON cases
ON growth
Too little data to tell for MB and SK, but ON seems as though the growth rate is constant at around 20 %, giving them a 4 day doubling period for cases. The effects of closing schools and businesses are expected to show this week so lets hope to see a decrease in the growth rate soon.
QC cases
QC growth
Same story as Ontario mostly. Growth rates are decreasing and its too early to know but in the second plot they maya have just begun to deviate away from exponential growth.
So it's early and the next week is critical, but there is a mixed bag of progress between the provinces, with BC looking like it is leading the way in kicking the dreaded exponential growth, and ON not yet beginning to do so at all.
I scrubbed all my data from health Canada and the various provincial health agencies. Please let me know if you find inaccuracies, but hopefully you found looking at all the data summarized like this helpful. If this gets a good response I can update every few days since work is a bit slow right now.
Posted Apr 2, 2020, 3:01 PM UTC · edited
I loved how easy it was to compare when each province took certain actions like closing schools and shutting down businesses!
Living in Nova Scotia, I'm really happy with this province's response to the epidemic. We were the first province to shut down businesses, and we did so when we still only had fairly few COVID cases. I honestly think Nova Scotia is doing all it reasonably can do in the face of this crisis. It'll be interesting to see how our curve compares to the rest of Canada in the long run because of this.
Once the cases started to pick up we declared a state of emergency, shut down the border with New Brunswick, and required everyone entering the province to self isolate for 14 days. Breaking self isolation or social distancing for individuals would result in a $1,000 per incident fine; businesses that fail to mandate proper social distancing in the workplace would face a $7,500 per incident fine.
I've been a seething critic of Stephen McNeil for the past 7 years. I honestly thought (and still kinda think) he deserves the rank of Most Unpopular Premier in Canada. But I'll be damned. He's a good crisis manager. He's actually following public health advise fully, and has mentioned that he's treating this whole situation like he would have to treat a war time economy. And his actions show.
His daily press briefings with Dr. Robert Strang are (to me at least) a great example of how the province is reacting.
They're reassuring when they can be, but if there's a bad development they won't sugar coat it. Instead they explain why something happened, what they're doing to fix it, and how it'll effect the overall trend of the virus. Even in the worst case scenarios, that sense that we gave it our best shot is reassuring. My father joked they were our "fireside chats".
So here's hoping McNeil's legacy is weathering this province successfully through what will likely the greatest social mobilization since WWII. I still won't vote for him though.