Nonfarm Payrolls - May 2020 [Megathread]

Note: As data and commentary become available they will be added to this post.

Release Date: June 5th, 2020 8:30am Eastern Time

Special Note From BLS: The impact of COVID-19 on the Employment Situation for April 2020

Recent Data

May 2020: TBD

Apr 2020: -20,537

Mar 2020: -881

Feb 2020: 251

Jan 2020: 214

Graphs of recent data:

Non-farm Payrolls

Expectations Running Up To Release:

The 881K fall in March 2020 nonfarm employment was followed by the unprecedented 20.5M decline in April. As we turn to May, our forecast is for another historic print of 8.0M jobs lost and for the unemployment rate to climb to 20%. One metric we will be watching closely is the reason given for unemployment. The current recession has been marked by an outsized increase in individuals citing “temporary layoff” as the reason for their job loss. Temporary layoffs rarely have much relation with the business cycle, however today nearly four-in-five workers believes their job loss is temporary. Just how many of these temporary layoffs turn into permanent ones remains the key question to be answered, in our view.
The May Employment Report will deliver another round of sobering news but one that is not expected to be worse than the historically bad April report. Expectations are for a decline of nearly 8 million workers versus 21 million in April, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 19.7% versus 14.7% in April. Markets will likely only look on with bemusement, much like one rubbernecks a car wreck, as the trading focus will remain on reopening news, any rekindling of the US/China trade war, and the civil unrest in the US.

#BLS Data Release:

To be added shortly after 8:30am

#Post-Release Commentary

To be added as available

Next Release Date: July 2nd, 2020 8:30am

Posted Jun 4, 2020, 11:28 PM UTC

2624