Are the Antarctic ice shelves really at risk of collapse?

The news articles all lead us to believing this.

But in one of my seminars today, a couple of scientists who study this have told me that they're actually expanding rather than collapsing. Today, we just read a paper labeled "Non-annular atmospheric circulation change induced by stratospheric ozone depletion and its role in the recent increase of Antarctic sea ice extent" that shows the trend in Antarctic ice.

But yet, all the penguin studies say that krill populations are declining to loss of sea ice.

"“We hypothesize that the amount of krill available to penguins has declined because of the increased competition from recovering whale and fur seal populations, and from bottom-up, climate-driven changes that have altered this ecosystem significantly during the past two to three decades,” the scientists wrote in the study. Krill densities have declined by up to 80 percent in the vicinity of the Antarctic Peninsula and the Scotia Sea, with that drop linked to the decline in sea ice. The melting ice adds fresh water to ocean, creating favorable conditions for krill. Without the sea ice in the mix, the ocean is not nearly as productive."

So now I'm confused. Although the paper I cited above does show a decline in January sea ice (and in increase in other months), and the PNAS paper (http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/04/06/1016560108.abstract) says that krill population declines are caused by declines in winter sea ice.

One hypothesis guiding ecological interpretations of changes in top predator populations in this region, the “sea-ice hypothesis,” proposes that reductions in winter sea ice have led directly to declines in “ice-loving” species by decreasing their winter habitat, while populations of “ice-avoiding” species have increased

Posted May 31, 2011, 11:32 PM UTC · edited

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