They're good on paper, but the Bombers are missing the mark
abc.net.au/news/2020-09-10/essendon-bombers-g...
abc.net.auPosted Sep 9, 2020, 11:04 PM UTC
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abc.net.auAnd I know this is somewhat of a stereotype sort of thing (I've seen a lot over Facebook and twitter) but I reckon the Bombers really, really, really lack a tough nut midfielder.
Their whole midfield is full of blokes (Shiel, McGrath, Parish, Shiel, Heppell) who are all very very very good at the uncontested footy and will (for the most part) get lots of disposals, but they lack a bloke who will only get 15-20 disposals a game, but will get shitloads of hard ball. I reckon even an average hard ball midfielder who just gets hard balls and uses the footy at a decent rate would make that entire midfield so much better, because the reality is they rely too much on skinny fucks who aren't built for the contested footy to try and win it
I have no real analytics backing me up, just an observation
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They're all about the same height as well. Hibberd is taller than everyone you mentioned and was great at VFL level, but just isn't getting enough games at AFL, and he wasn't even played in the middle.
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I hate to be the guy, but Hibberd was sort of underwhelming in the games he did play.
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Its funny that someone like Jobe Watson would be perfect in our current midfield, but had to go through all those years being the only really good midfielder we had
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Massive thighs and big middle body strength
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I don't know where to get stats on hard ball gets specifically, but Shiel, McGrath and Parish all get a good amount of contested footy. (All averaging ~9 contested possessions per game this year, from around 20 or so possessions.)
edit to be more specific: Shiel is averaging 9.5 contested possessions/22.9 disposals, McGrath 9.1/22.1, Parish 8.9/18.6.
And Heppell missed most of the year with injury, but over his career he averages 10 contested possessions.
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Melbourne and Essendon should trade a mid with each other honestly.
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Yeah you're right, I didn't mean to imply we have elite-level hard ball winners, just that the OP was exaggerating a bit.
And looking at Richmond's stats -- not cherrypicking, just the first comparison I thought of -- they only have two players averaging over 9, and nobody else over 6.5 from a decent sample size. (Edwards has an average of 7.8 from 5 games.) Admittedly one of the two is Cotchin with 10.5, and the other is Martin with 9.6 + everything else he does, but still. For a pretty bad team, I reckon our inside mids are doing a decent job at winning the ball.
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We’re getting straight murdered in clearances and missing meatball, not the comparison you want tbh
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I agree.
Melbourne has the opposite problem. Too many hard ball getters and not enough silky deliverers.
Oliver, Viney, Brayshaw and Petracca are all hard nuts getting the ball, but only Oliver is any good at delivering it, and even then it's only by hand. We need someone who can get the ball out the back of a pack from one of the hard nuts and deliver it to HF with skill.
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I've seen people on Bigfooty suggest a straight swap of Parish for Brayshaw, or Parish for an early pick to get a big mid like Perkins or O'Driscoll. Wouldn't be against it, as much as I like Parish.
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Perkins will be a very good player. Would suit well at Essendon
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I think you're right and it might've bee the one observation missing from the article. I don't believe any of those mids are over 185cm/85kg, so you're probably right.
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Heppell is reasonably big (listed at 189cm/85kg).
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I was most surprised to see that McGrath and Merrett are supposedly only 1kg lighter than Shiel. Shiel easily seems like our most powerful midfielder at the moment, and he's 3-4cm taller than them.
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Someone like Liberatore would be absolutely perfect. Obviously they don't grow on trees but someone of that ilk is who they need to target.
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Greenwood last year should’ve been the target I reckon. Or Ellis-Yolmen.
Sier or Constable this year would be solid targets.
Tbf I feel like Clarke will do well in that role going forward though.
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Yep Greenwood would've been fantastic and was obviously get-able. I could see them making a run at Fiorini, B. Crouch or the two you mentioned.
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It's a bit sad reading this article and seeing that we have an extra player at stoppages but still only break even.
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I credit Port's resurgence on drafting exactly that type of player. Wines, Powell-Pepper, Butters etc.
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Exactly. You see a lot of people complain about their team drafting guys who get lots of the footy but don’t do much with it. Port has those three guys you mentioned, plus Boak, who all do good things with the footy. Big part of why they’re good for sure
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By what metric are they good on paper? I'm looking at a print out of the ladder and it says they are 6 wins from 15 games with a % of 83?
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Yeah well I just wrote 'Essendon Rules, Geelong Drools' on a post-it note. You can't take that away from us.
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I subscribe to this reality.
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Try holding that ladder upside down though, who's looking ok now!
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Yet another very well researched footy article from the ABC. The point about playing an extra man at centre bounces instead of in defence was particularly illuminating to me.
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Stoppages, not centre bounces.
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I don't agree that they're good on paper. Out of all their players I only fear McGrath and Merrett (mayyyyyybe Saad). Ridley is a great prospect sure, but the rest of the list is either inconsistent or just bang on mediocre. Do they have a consistent forward? Daniher can't kick. Tippa goes missing for half the season. Stringer looks like a top 10 player in the AFL when he's on but useless when he's not (most of the time). If I were Essendon I think it would be worth doing a Sydney or Port Adelaide like rebuild. They have a decent amount of players with trade value so get them out, get some high quality draft picks in and develop some upside in the list.
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Do they really look that good on paper?
Hurley and Hooker aren’t what they used to be. Ridley is exciting though.
Their midfield is small. Shiel is their best mid and he’s a butcher with the footy.
Daniher and Stringer are good when they’re playing well, but how often are the injured or out of form? Tippa is exciting too but goes missing so often.
Seems to be the team that will play 1/5 exciting games and look good, which will then be a blanket over all their real issues for the next weeks.
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Good article but I feel like it doesn’t acknowledge that Essendon basically didn’t have McKenna in his half back role this year. When both him and Saad were line-breaking run and carry threats they looked super damaging on the rebound, but this year with just Saad filling that role it hadn’t felt like he’s had the same impact. I guess because counter defences can focus solely on him now rather than having to focus on his support runner as well?
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Also the fact that Saad is the best small defender they have and can't just zone off.
Richmond, for example, have Short or Houli or Baker to run the ball/kick through lines. One or two can do that while the others can be defensive minded. I don't think Essendon have enough players to reliably play those dual roles, especially now that McKenna is gone.
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They're good on paper
https://media1.tenor.com/images/8a8ceb2c8b436faa23ca7784d5d1d89c/tenor.gif?itemid=13334930
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No one has used paper since Essendon last won a final. Coincidence?
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Honestly, Bomber fans; if you're tried of the poor analysis of our club by outsiders and those with no idea, head over to the Bomber forum on BigFooty. Way more accurate and astute analysis of where we are.
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This isn’t poor analysis, we’re nowhere, haven’t been anywhere for years and aren’t going anywhere in the foreseeable future. First step of being a genuine supporter is taking off the rise tinted glasses and realising that we are not at the level we should or could be
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are not at the level we should or could be
I didn't say otherwise? But I am saying that analysis here is so wafer thin and not beyond the obvious. Supporters have a much better understand of our club than people here who loosely follow us.
Just yesterday a bloke said we shouldn't be trying to focus on bringing on players, but draft them, when we already have such a young core and one of the youngest in the comp.
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But we should be drafting: by focusing on pulling in mature age recruits repeatedly over 3 years whilst not performing consistently enough to justify a premiership run, we’re basically in the dangerous no mans land of losing the chance at a full fresh start of youth or losing the chance of a full charge to premierships, which we are clearly not capable of. I’d just stop the mature recruiting and focus on developing a new team around McGrath, Parish, Ridley, Stewart and Daniher (big ifs) and Draper
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No, we shouldn't. We already have such a young list as is.
Saad - 25
Stringer - 25
Merrett - 24
Langford - 23
Parish - 22
Francis - 22
Redman - 22
McGrath - 21
Zerk - 21
Draper - 21
Ridley - 21
Mosquito - 19
There are most of our players who are best 22 and still young. 10 players excluding Saad and Stringer are under 24. We don't need more youth. We need experienced bodies. Not 30 year olds, but more around Saad/Stringer/Merretts age bracket.
we’re basically in the dangerous no mans land of losing the chance at a full fresh start of youth or losing the chance of a full charge to premierships
No, we're not even close to that. Look at our youth and honestly tell me that with a straight face.
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Bomberblitz is better than BF for Essendon fans
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I'm sorry but we need to stop this narrative that the Bombers are good on paper if they ever want to improve as a club. The media and the club/fans have continually pushed this narrative that they have a squad capable of competing for finals when they just don't and that's half the problem.
They don't have a competitive ruckman, their key defenders are way past their prime, their running half backs are fast and get the ball but they're poor decision-makers, their midfielders are incapable of doing real grunt work and are all honest players at best, they haven't had a key forward in years due to Daniher's injury woes, and half their lauded small forwards either miss too much footy or just play selfish football that never results in anything impactful.
I'm probably going to be downvoted for being too harsh, but honestly the only lists in Victoria that are worse than Essendon's are Hawthorn and North IMO (probably not a revolutionary opinion given ladder positions).
I agree with you on most points. Draper is a competitive ruckman though.
He will be a great ruckman, so if you're looking to the future Draper is great. But for the right now Draper's too inexperienced and not quite ready. Bit like English in that regard, fluctuates between looking great and less than great.
I don't know, he hasn't really shown any spud moments the entire time he's been playing. Been one of the top 3 most consistent players we have when he's been on the field (with Ridley & McGrath).
Yeah not quite what I meant, as a young ruck his issue is staying involved in the game and not having patches where he's not contributing much. Dropping in and out of games is a particularly common theme of inexperienced players and something he's definitely had happen this year.
But would you bank him against elite rucks? I understand that the Tigers don't necessarily have elite ruckmen but our strength is that we body the hell out of oppo rucks and wear them down. I just don't see that from the Bombers, but that's not just restricted to the ruck division.
He's still competitive and I think he did quite well against Nic Nat a few weeks ago.
He's played like 6 games and only will get better lmao. He will be one of the best in the comp within the next 4 years.
That's what I mean though, he'll be good in 4 years, not enough to compete in finals now.
It hurts to agree with this, because I wanna believe we have a list that's capable but there are other problems in the way.. But in reality, you're probably right.
Even the 'running half backs are fast' bit doesnt have weight anymore, used to be a strength of the side rebounding off half back, but without McKenna, saad is left out to try on his own, constantly given bad hospital handballs with a "get us out of this mess" feeling.
I just honestly think this is as good as this list is capable of being right now. If they want to improve next year with this list they have to have the most brutal wakeup call of a pre-season and get serious. Way too many passengers in the squad.
Well, someone had to say it.
the truth stings...
edit: ok, specifically the truth about our list, geez
This.
It seems to be a persistent issue with a other clubs, having a hyped but list only to fall short and get destroyed when they don't meet the expectations of media and fans. Dees had a similar issue earlier in the season, their team looks great on paper but hasn't met expectations.
You make a lot of great points and while maybe a little harsh hit the nail on the head. Easy to see why fans are so frustrated with the last 15ish years.
I disagree, we are good on paper. Our problem is lack of cohesion, adapting to a new game style and dealing with constant injuries. We've probably had the worst run in the last couple years. Plus, we have one of the youngest lists out there. About 80 games average experience on the weekend, compared to 130~ for Geelong.
We have a squad that is close to competing, but it definitely needs some work. We competed in 2017 and have only added talent since then (plus development of our youth) and regressed as a team; that is a coaching issue.
Nah. Draper is probably the best young ruckman in the comp and will only get better. He's a good athlete and has some real fucking mongrel about him. Plus we have Phillips who at the very minimum is competitive, albeit not close to anything amazing.
Sort of. Hooker is about done, Hurley is getting there. But I agree in the sense they're not the players they were 5 years ago.
Nah, that's incorrect. I won't include McKenna because he's retired but Saad is a great decision maker, his only flaw is not having players present for him up field.
I agree with in the sense that none of they are the real bruisers that some clubs have, but honestly you could say the same about a lot of clubs.
I don't understand what you mean with "honest" in this context.
Yeah, seems like a problem of the past though at this point.
Huh? Tippa is one of the most accurate players and the comp and arguably the least selfish. Mozzie has played like 3 games so not sure what you're expecting. I honestly think you just made this one up.
But like I said in another thread to someone; Riewold said on On The Couch this Monday that in 2016/17, nobody looked at Richmonds list and thought that it was capable of winning a final, let a lone a couple of premerships. Honestly on paper, their list isn't that amazing either. But it's their cohesion/teamwork that got them to where they are now. If that can happen for Richmond, it can happen to the Bombers.
The thing is, that's just flat out not true about Richmond. Yeah our list as a whole mightn't have been considered elite but we had a once in a generation key defender, a Brownlow medalist, a Coleman medalist and a (future) Brownlow medalist going into 2017. We had bonafide A graders on every line, there was absolutely no questioning that. You simply cannot say the same thing about Essendon.
This is the key. Richmond at least had Riewoldt/Cotchin/Martin/Rance as the core. Essendon have Daniher/Heppell/Shiel/Hurley. It's not really comparable.
Exactly, I was going to make the point regarding 3 consecutive finals appearances and 2016 just being a blip, but credit to Essendon they've actually made a couple of finals series. I will say though that two of ours we were a win or so out of top four, whereas the same cannot be said of the Bombers, so even our mid-tier players were contributing on-field somewhat.
But yeah like, Daniher has barely played, Heppell and Shiel are a tier below all the Tigers players, and Hurley is well past his prime.
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It is true. Riewoldt agreed and so did everyone on the panel. I thought the same thing. I think you're a bit bias because you now have the power of hindsight (and it's your club), but that list wasn't the best that year. It's the teamwork/culture that was.
Rance? Yeah...nah. He was good but often got exposed in the 1 on 1s. He was still good though, but he's not Brian Lake or Glen Jakovich.
There were about 4-5 genuine A graders. Looking at a full strength Essendon; Saad, Merrett, Shiel and Daniher are all A graders. Agreed there wasn't a gamebreaker in the sense of Dustin Martin though.
But the main point is; the consensus was that their list wasn't good enough. I'm just saying that consensus isn't often right.
What the hell are you smoking, Rance is the best key defender the club has had in over 40 years, maybe more, and received 5 consecutive All Australians. I know people don't like him but for fuck's sake, he would still be in the top 5 best key defenders in the comp if he hadn't retired.
An A-Grader is generally considered to be in the top five in the competition in their position - can you really consider that of any of these players? Daniher might have been once, I don't think the other four have been close or have shown that they have the capacity to get there.
You shouldn't be accusing anyone of bias right now.
My first thought was the comment about small forwards was about Fantasia, who looked like he was going to be a huge part of Essendon's future a couple of years ago but hasn't managed that for a range of reasons.
Just so you're aware, your team isn't that young / inexperienced. Your side on the weekend had basically the exact same demographics as the Saints and bulldogs, and was older than the demons and even the Lions albeit with slightly less experience (87 games average vs 91).
Geelong makes everyone look young and inexperienced as they've got an old battle hardened team. You should be comparing to the other teams around the mark like the doggies saints and demons and asking "is our future brighter than theirs?"
Yep and shouldn't listen to people that have been doing this for years we should instead listen to random people on Reddit to form our opinions.
That's not my point though, my point is that it's the people who haven't been doing this for years that are consistently hyping them and warping expectations of the club. Woosha said they're years off competing with clubs like Geelong and it's true.