Even if Biden ONLY won states/districts in which he is currently ahead in polls by 5% or more... he would still win the election
Posted Sep 16, 2020, 4:02 PM UTC
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I used 538's latest numbers.
I just now noticed that in the 10 minutes between making this map and posting it, 538's Pennsylvania numbers changed from Biden ahead by 5.0% to Biden ahead by 4.8%. So by my criterion as of this comment, Biden would still win, but by 271-267 instead of 291-247.
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I think you confused Nebraska statewide with Nebraska's second district.
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You're right. Somehow I didn't realize that the district number headers extended down to the second line.
According to current polls, NE-1 is leaning Trump whereas NE-2 is pretty solidly Biden. I can't find any polling data for NE-3, but they're a reliably-conservative district so give it to Trump.
Correcting for this mistake, the Biden margin of victory becomes 272-266.
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That plus a 10M popular vote margin and both houses of Congress = mandate
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Electoral vote wins the election. Popular vote sends a message.
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If I’m not mistaken in that scenario MI WI and AZ are the ones that flipped correct?
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Compared to the 2016 election? That is correct.
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This is basically the blue-wall scenario, which unfortunately is not as blue or wall-like as we'd hope.
But if MN-WI-MI-PA hold for Biden, the map is very untenable for Trump. Biden can lose NV, NC, FL, GA, all of NE, and most of ME and still come out on top.
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all of NE, and most of ME
Isn't he polling better in NE-2 than ME-2?
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But not by enough. There has to be a bigger margin to avoid a bunch of bullshit.
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Yes.
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I have a feeling this could be a rare occasion that a republican wins Florida but still loses the election.
(If Biden wins the entire thing)
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I was just thinking about that. Im still not comfortable with arizona and florida. I think they could flip
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Don't trust it. Only a poll. Vote.
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Of course.
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This is one that actually makes me feel really good about the election. Seeing as how he still take other states hopefully will make it a blowout
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Florida and wisconsin are really far bets imo
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If Bloomberg uses that money he promised to Florida pay off the ‘poll tax’ put in place by the idiot governor of Florida, it would immediately flip the state blue.
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I really want to believe but 2000 taught me florida is a complete wildcard
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The governor has prevented 200,000 people from voting who have paid their debt to society and were released from prison. The people of Florida overwhelmingly voted to give them their rights back. The governor undid the will of the people with the swipe of a pen.
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Exactly man, even if Biden takes it by a land slide I expect 200-400k votes to be expunged or just go missing. I am scared.
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In 2000, the governor was the Repub nominee's brother. That's fair, right?
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Imagine if those 200,000 people started a revolution because they're being taxed without representation. Shame that revolutions are wrong now after our country was founded on one.
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PA is the key
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This is actually really comforting.