Fivey explains probability so eloquently
Posted Oct 16, 2020, 9:59 PM UTC
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Pretty sure Fivey wouldn’t drop all those f-bombs.
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Just play a dice game one fucking time
Oh, if only that did the trick. I know people who believe that the probability of a number being picked in roullette goes up after each subsequent time it isn't picked. Also people that develop superstition around any odds games in general.
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I don’t understand why “normal polling error” is relevant in polling aggregates. If polls were random samples, and the normal polling error was that sampling error, then it would be lessened in polling averaging. So the 3.5% or whatever different in aggregate polling from the result isn’t “normal” polling error. It’s a systemic bias in polling.
I think when they say normal they mean in the context of historical polling error, not sampling error.