Power card elements statistical analysis?

Discussion/Analysis

Has anyone done any kind of statistical analysis on the chances of getting certain elements or meeting elemental thresholds given a number of power cards draws etc?

edit: The reason I got interested in all this was because of a recent game, which was my first with Downpour Drenches The World, where I had four straight turns of drawing 4 minors without water, and I was wondering about the odds of that happening (turns out now that had a 14% chance of happening).

Posted Oct 20, 2020, 11:43 AM UTC · edited

78
LordMotas:Downpour::Shroud::Vengance::Wildfire:•

From my counting efforts a while ago (definitely could be wrong, counting is hard):

ElementMinorMajor
Sun2316
Moon2615
Fire2616
Air2615
Water2516
Earth2416
Plant2515
Animal2516

Each row is the number of cards that have the symbol shown for the type of Power. For example: There are 23 Minor Powers that have a Sun element and 16 Major Powers that have a Sun element. These values used to be completely balanced, but Branch & Claw and Jagged Earth messed up the ratios only slightly.

Edit: Sun might be 26. Counting is hard.

9
OPbaron•

These are all of the Minors and Majors with the Base Game, Branch and Claw, and Jagged Earth.

​

ElementMinorChance with 1 Card DrawMajorChance with 1 Card Draw
Sun3838%2639.39%
Moon3838%2537.88%
Fire3838%2436.36%
Air3838%2436.36%
Water3838%2436.36%
Earth3838%2537.88%
Plant3838%2537.88%
Animal3838%2436.36%
Cards that Give Elements22%00
Cards with Zero Elements0011.51%
Total Cards10066
Average Chance38%37.31%
Chance of Drawing 1 Specific Element out of 4 cards85.22%84.55%
6
sosei77OP:Finder:•

This is indeed the direction I'm interested in, but I want to go a bit deeper (how many card draws for an X percent chance to trigger an innate or kicker on a power). Looks interesting though.

1
Benjogias:Wildfire:•

I do recall that the Power decks are balanced for an equal mix of not only every element but every element combination - element pairs and element triplets (and quads as well I believe). This has been roughly true since the beginning but was fleshed out and completed with the expansions, including Jagged Earth - before then, some combinations (e.g., opposing element combinations like Fire/Water or Air/Earth) were less common than other combinations!

And I think in general the Major Power element balance is a little less perfect than the Minor Power balance.

3
sosei77OP:Finder:•

Yes, I recall reading that somewhere as well. But I'd love to see the numbers on it :)

1
white__box:Rampant:•

I did this a while back and it doesn't have thresholds or Jagged Earth content (yet, I should go back and update that), but it's got all of the elements for Base and B&C powers.

u/LordMotas numbers look mostly right, there seem to be 26 minors with Sun though, not 23 (again, without JE)

3
sosei77OP:Finder:•

Your google sheet has most of the information I need, which I've now shamelessly copied, for which you have my thanks!

2
[deleted]•

[removed]

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