"Smudge": A look at which POV that GRRM was describing (Spoilers Extended)

Back in 2018 on his NotaBlog, GRRM was asked which POV chapter he was currently working on. He responded in an extremely cryptic manner, with the one-word response: "Smudge".

George,

Quite a busy post! I asked a question before on your LiveJournal, and considering there’s so much activity here, I thought I’d ask again. “Just curious, would you be willing to share what POV you’ve worked on most recently in TWOW? Thanks! :)” Personally, Bran is my favorite character, and I’m really excited to see where his story goes, so hoping you’re working on his chapters. I also think his endgame is the most difficult to speculate about. All the same, I’ll “keep reading.” Thanks, and hope all is well!

GRRM: Smudge. -SSM, Fire & Blood: On the Way: 1 May 2018

What did GRRM mean by the word "Smudge", in response this question?

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There could be a variety of meanings behind that one word answer, and Ill try to look into as many as I can, but feel free to point out anything I may have missed in the comments.

A couple notes:

A smudge is similar to a blot, but is defined as:

1. Cause (something) to become messily smeared by rubbing it. (verb)

2. A blurred or smeared mark on the surface of something. (noun)

The word "smudge" has appeared 7 times in the series

• Direwolf Banner

It was too far to make out the banners clearly, but even through the drifting fog she could see that they were white, with a dark smudge in their center that could only be the direwolf of Stark, grey upon its icy field. When she saw it with her own eyes, Catelyn reined up her horse and bowed her head in thanks. The gods were good. She was not too late. -AGOT, Catelyn VIII

• Smoke blocking out stars

The southern sky was black with smoke. It rose swirling off a hundred distant fires, its sooty fingers smudging out the stars. Across the Blackwater Rush, a line of flame burned nightly from horizon to horizon, while on this side the Imp had fired the whole riverfront: docks and warehouses, homes and brothels, everything outside the city walls. -ACOK, Sansa IV

• Ser Balon Swann on the Blackwater

A man-at-arms grabbed the bridle of his horse and thrust at Tyrion's face with a dagger. He knocked the blade aside and buried the axe in the nape of the man's neck. As he was wresting it free, a blaze of white appeared at the edge of his vision. Tyrion turned, thinking to find Ser Mandon Moore beside him again, but this was a different white knight. Ser Balon Swann wore the same armor, but his horse trappings bore the battling black-and-white swans of his House. He's more a spotted knight than a white one, Tyrion thought inanely. Every bit of Ser Balon was spattered with gore and smudged by smoke. He raised his mace to point downriver. Bits of brain and bone clung to its head. "My lord, look." -ACOK, Tyrion XIV

• Sansa's hairnet at the Purple Wedding

When she pulled it free, her long auburn hair cascaded down her back and across her shoulders. The web of spun silver hung from her fingers, the fine metal glimmering softly, the stones black in the moonlight. Black amethysts from Asshai. One of them was missing. Sansa lifted the net for a closer look. There was a dark smudge in the silver socket where the stone had fallen out. -ASOS, Sansa V

• Lancel's mustache

"Not as yet. There are outlaws in my castle." Her cousin's voice was as wispy as the mustache on his upper lip. Though his hair had gone white, his mustache fuzz remained a sandy color. Cersei had often gazed up at it while the boy was inside her, pumping dutifully away. It looks like a smudge of dirt on his lip. She used to threaten to scrub it off with a little spit. "The riverlands have need of a strong hand, my father says." -AFFC, Cersei II

-Astapor

Two hundred leagues divided Meereen from Astapor, yet it seemed to her that the sky was darker to the southwest, smudged and hazy with the smoke of the Red City's passing. Brick and blood built Astapor, and brick and blood its people. The old rhyme rang in her head. Ash and bone is Astapor, and ash and bone its people. She tried to recall Eroeh's face, but the dead girl's features kept turning into smoke. -ADWD, Daenerys V

• Egg's face

Beneath his wide-brimmed straw hat, his face was smudged and dirty, his eyes large and dark. He was ten, not quite five feet tall. Of late he had been sprouting fast, though he had a long long way to grow before he'd be catching up to Dunk. He looked just like the stableboy he wasn't, and not at all like who he really was. -The Sworn Sword

With that in mind lets look at some possibilities.

Note: This is my first time seeing this SSM, so I might have to return to this post in a few weeks if can end up tying "Smudge" to anything relevant.

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#Possible POV Characters that could be "Smudge"

Going into The Winds of Winter there are currently 20 POV characters available (GRRM stated he was not planning to add any more). We have established that at least 17 of these characters will return as POVs (just waiting on Jon/Brienne/Jaime, even though we can assume).

The most likely answer is that "Smudge" is an alias in my opinion, similar to numerous other aliases we have seen throughout AFFC/ADWD.

He was asked about how some chapters had titles instead of names. He said something along the lines of "There's a method behind my madness, but I'll leave it to you guys to figure out." He said that when an unnamed character becomes named, it means something. -SSM, Boskone Reading

Arya Stark

As Arya can no longer be Mercy she will have to assume a new identity after the play. As she has had numerous identities in the past this is very possible.

Sansa Stark

A "smudge" is mentioned with regards to the hairnet that is used in the purple wedding. While Sansa may not be the POV character, it could allude to poison (the strangler) use by said POV character or less likely to Sansa (the heirnet is mentioned in the same prophecy by the GoHH where Sansa also "slays a giant".

Bran Stark

I didn't really see a way that Bran could be "smudge", but I did remember that in TWOIAF the section on the tragedy at Summerhall is described like this:

It is unfortunate that the tragedy that transpired at Summerhall left very few witnesses alive, and those who survived would not speak of it. A tantalizing page of Gyldayn's history—surely one of the very last written before his own death—hints at much, but the ink that was spilled over it in some mishap blotted out too much. -TWOIAF, The Targaryen Kings: Aegon V

Bran (or another character) could get a vision via the weirwood/old gods or dream, etc. of what happened at Summerhall. I think this is unlikely as I think Summerhall will be revealed differently.

Daenerys Targaryen

Im only half serious here, but the smudge on Egg's face under the straw hat sounds a bit like Dany at the end of ADWD (straw hat notwithstanding). Its possible albeit unlikely it could refer to her in TWOW. It could also refer to her and what she does to Meereen, etc. but again unlikely.

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Mudge

While it has been noted that GRRM does not plan to include any new POVs it could just refer to a character named "Smudge" appearing in a chapter and having some importance. The closest thing I found from a name to "Smudge" was several characters named Mudge:

• A miller's son (it seems miller's children are just marked for death in ASOIAF lol) who inhabited Donnelwood and was killed by Lannister forces in the War of the Five Kings

• A swineherd who appears in The Sworn Sword

• Member of the Brotherhood without Banners who is currently with Lady Stoneheart

Of those three Mudge of the BWB could possibly appear in one of Jaime/Briennes chapters and be influential in their situation with Lady Stoneheart or the Red Wedding 2.0 or the TWOW, Prologue. But then the question is raised, why "smudge" instead of "mudge"?

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I found/thought of a few other minor hints for Sam/Jon and a few other characters, but nothing seemed to fit super well at the moment.

Its also very possible that GRRM didn't mean anything by this (just a way of saying "keep reading"), or it just a small tiny reference to something that will happen in TWOW, that we don't know about yet (for instance he hinted at the Red Wedding before ASOS was released).

TLDR: Some thoughts and theories on the identity of "Smudge", a POV GRRM was apparently working on.