Source
r/UKPersonalFinance•
scienner

Premium Bonds vs Halifax Savers Prize Draw

Halifax's banking app has just tried to get me to sign up to their premium bonds-ish product. https://www.halifax.co.uk/savings/savers-prize-draw.html

As it happens I currently have £5k in my old Marcus account giving me about £3 of interest per month. One £100 prize within two years would beat that.

Has anyone crunched the numbers on the odds? I googled but only found old articles from before the latest round of interest rate / premium bond prize cuts.

I understand the number of qualifying accounts will vary each month while the number of prizes stays fixed, but surely there's a rough number? Or is it confidential?

Posted Nov 11, 2020, 10:43 AM UTC

810
pjhh121•

From the FAQ from your URL:

What are my odds of winning?

They change each month, depending on how many entries we receive, but we give away 1,603 prizes in the Savers Prize Draw in a normal month.

i.e. "even we don't know."

If there were only 1,603 eligible accounts, for examples, the odds are basically 1:1. If there were 1,603,000, then it's 1:1000. I'm guessing there will be more than a million and a half accounts though.

Nothing about odds in the T&C's either.

So it's virtually impossible to do a comparison, since it's unknown what the odds are for the Halifax draw.

9
sciennerOP295•

Yes I realise the odds aren't fixed, but I wondered if anyone had data for a previous month, or some rough estimates about how many accounts are open.

Bank of Scotland accounts are also eligible I think so I assume the number is large!

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[deleted]•

[deleted]

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[deleted]•

[deleted]

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amegaproxy7•

Yeah I had enough in there for about half a decade. Never got a single thing from it.

2
StefTakka1•

Stupid question. Did you opt in? It's not automatic.

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[deleted]•

[deleted]

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Watson_Gr•

You have to sign in

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[deleted]•

[deleted]

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iamparky•

I can't speak for the Halifax account, but if it helps I have crunched the numbers for the Premium Bonds, and I put it on a website :)

At £5000, using December's interest rates, Premium Bonds would give you slightly over 50% chance of winning £50 in a year, which would beat your £3 a month from Marcus.

3
McGubbins4•

A 50% chance of winning £50 means an expected gain of £25. This is less than a guaranteed gain of £36.

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iamparky•

More precisely, then, a slightly-over-50% chance of beating that £36.

4
Dan_SJ•

I have two accounts (my wife & I) in the savers prize draw with Halifax since it first started up (about 5 years ago).

Not won a single penny

Looking into moving them to Premium Bonds

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Exact_Emergency13•

Interesting question. I've not really looked into the Halifax/bos saver draws

Not what you're asking but vaguely related, My partner has about 500 in premium bonds and I have about 500 in start to save with nationwide. She's won nothing. I've won £100 and get 1% interest aer.

Still I'd much rather be earning decent interest rather than borderline gambling, but I think those days are gone for the foreseeable.

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