Introducing: The Kards Pack Expected Value Calculator

##Calculator Link

Instructions

1. File → Make a Copy
2. Go through your collection and count the cards with max copies for each card type, per card set. Unfortunately, this step can be quite tedious; if you want to be lazy and approximate it, you can click the little bars chart in your collection to show your collection breakdown by rarity. You can then use that percentage and calculate what number you should enter into the sheet.
3. Select a set in Cell B6
4. Pack purchase suggestion will be displayed in cell B7

Example of sheet in use

What is this?

This spreadsheet will help you determine what kind of packs are best for you to buy, in terms of expected resource value from packs.

How does it work?

First, the Normal Pack Breakdown and Officer Breakdown calculates the number of cards you should expect, on average, when you open a pack. Numbers are sourced from the original Officer Pack announcement.

On the main EV sheet, you can enter some information about your collection by set and then select the set you want to analyze. By using the number of copies of each type of card, we can calculate on average how much a card pull will be worth given some will be duplicates.

Gold card chances and values are completely ignored as I don't have any figures on those chances.

Is your math right?

Only 1939 Games can be certain of it, but I'm confident in my interpretation of the Officer Pack announcement. Once you make a copy, feel free to inspect the formulas for each cell and verify my work.

I will highlight one part of the announcement which is a bit ambiguous

If you have not drawn a limited (or rarer) card after the first four cards, one of the guarantees comes into play: The remaining 3 cards in the pack are then at least of limited rarity

I don't believe they mean to say that Officer packs guarantee at least 3 limited+ cards since one of the two guaranteed limited cards can be a special and satisfy the last guarantee. For example, if a pack contains 5 standards, 1 limited, and 1 special, it has met the guarantees of 2 limited+ and 1 special+. I haven't opened many Officer Packs though so if someone can confirm otherwise I'll happily change the formulas.

General Insights

• With a basically new collection and 0 chances of dupes, 3 regular packs are on average worth about 18% more resources than 1 Officer pack

• New players should thus absolutely be buying regular packs when starting out as there are lots of good staples at standard that you need anyway.

• The crossover point for Officer packs being better is when you have full copies of slightly more than half of all the standard and limited cards in a set, though this of course varies from collection to collection

• For fun, I also calculated the pack values if they didn't come with the rarity guarantees. Normal packs would be about 5% worse and officer packs would be about 19% worse.

---

Hope this tool helps you out or at least gave you some insight in to the different packs. Leave any feedback or suggestions in the comments.