Analysis of Tournament Cup Reward Drop Rates

DISCUSSION

Hi everyone, I've been tracking down drop rates for the various tournament cup rewards from my own openings and openings posted on YouTube starting with the Google sheet posted in the comments of this reddit post. Below are my findings, with the extra data that I scraped up. Hope you find them useful.

With the All-Stars and Champions cups the expected cost of a black market is ~110,000 and ~146,000 respectively. I'll continue adding data to this so check back for updated figures.

tl;dr : If you want black markets, the all-stars and champions cup are the way to go.

Prospect Cup

Total data values: 434

Rarity	Number	Percentage	Percentage Painted	Percentage Certified
Uncommon	266	61.29%	21.05%	17.67%
Rare	101	23.27%	16.83%	3.96%
Very Rare	48	11.06%	33.33%	14.58%
Import	11	2.53%	27.27%	45.45%
Exotic	7	1.61%	0.00%	28.57%
Black Market	1	0.23%	0.00%	100.00%

Challengers Cup

Total data values: 140

Rarity	Number	Percentage	Percentage Painted	Percentage Certified
Uncommon	31	22.14%	12.90%	16.13%
Rare	41	29.29%	29.27%	9.76%
Very Rare	33	23.57%	21.21%	18.18%
Import	28	20.00%	14.29%	14.29%
Exotic	6	4.29%	33.33%	16.67%
Black Market	1	0.71%	0.00%	0.00%

All-Stars Cup

Total data values: 110

Rarity	Number	Percentage	Percentage Painted	Percentage Certified
Very Rare	31	28.18%	41.94%	12.90%
Import	39	35.45%	20.51%	38.46%
Exotic	28	25.45%	25.00%	10.71%
Black Market	12	10.91%	25.00%	50.00%

Champions Cup

Total data values: 73

Rarity	Number	Percentage	Percentage Painted	Percentage Certified
Very Rare	23	31.51%	100.00%	0.00%
Import	14	19.18%	100.00%	14.29%
Exotic	26	35.62%	100.00%	15.38%
Black Market	10	13.70%	100.00%	10.00%

Edit: Format fixes

Edit: Add links to OG sheet and post I found.

Posted Dec 25, 2020, 12:23 AM UTC · edited

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