FINAL EDIT: There are critical support levels of retail buying points. Those are 143 (which was unbroken at the tie of writing), 68, and 38. 68 (8:10 - 8:25 AM today, Feb. 4 '21) has clearly broken as people closed off positions at breakeven and the flood gates down burst open. Another sell off between 10:00 & 10:15 AM coincided with another sell wall at 64-62. I think we'll make it all the way to 30-40 before it'll make sense to start buying long again (you saw what happened at 64-68; the same will likely happen at 34-38 but I don't know where the exact floor is).

The data has been showing, since the 140s, that retail isn't holding. The data presented as the cornerstone and namesake of this DD is no longer relevant. The ratio of volume of shares per sell order relative to buy order appears to be higher than the ratio of buy orders to sell orders. In other words, there may be a 3:1 distribution of raw orders, but the sells are so much more packed that it breaks the ratio anyway. The situation changed and as more data came to light, I now know I was wrong.

I used to be a HODLer until the situation changed. I lost out on a lot of profit by holding through waning evidence at the 300s, 200s, and 150s, and only pulled at 111—I was able to secure a little bit of profit to make this obsession a bit more worthwhile. At time of writing, the price is 52.60. Even with bullish conviction, this was still a directionally correct move as I can now buy double as much as I had before.

That being said, I think we're in for more downside, and I will not be buying back until we hit the bottom, wherever that may be. I'm still long-term bullish on the company transformation and will re-enter a moderately sized position after the volatility settles down.

Here's the original DD so you can see how I had brought up good data, but was directionally incorrect in my sprinkled analysis of it. Learn from this like I did, and you'll be more successful in the future. Furthermore, I will not stop writing DDs because I think the data here is sound and makes sense. What was wrong was the analysis, which can happen to anyone with this many unknown variables. Future DD will take confirmation bias into account and will have higher probability of being on the money.

____________________________________________

Today's most traded retail assets on Fidelity were $AMC & $GME.

And you know what people did? They bought a metric fuckton of shares. Contrary to what some of the Reddit Daily thread sentiment (which may or may not be bot-infested hell at this point) & news outlets claim, retail has seemingly not lost any interest in the stock and possibly prevented it from diving further.

Obligatory disclaimer: Mods, for the love of god please let this through it took a lot to write and I know for a fact it hasn't been discussed sufficiently / didn't get a dedicated post yet. Also, I'm a 🦍 and am not financial advisor and this isn't financial advice. This is a synthesis of public available information with autistic analysis like sprinkles on a birthday cupcake.

Disclaimer 2: I am extremely long $GME 🚀🌙

UPDATE: my stop loss got triggered and I am no longer long $GME until data changes. The information here has not changed, but the impact and its magnitude may have.

With that out of the way, I present to you,

Exhibit A: Order Distribution

~75% of all $GME orders on Fidelity today, on 2/1 were to buy the asset, rather than sell it. Each order can have however many shares.

https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/gotoBL/fidelityTopOrders.jhtml

That's just Fidelity. If you're able to check the order distribution on other brokers (like Vanguard or Schwab) please post it below and I'll update this post with your info. Usually this information is displayed on Top Traded Stocks or on the stock page itself under some tab.

There's more:

WeBull is showing a 45/55 distribution on the entire order book. Total Outflow (sells) was quoted at 1099, and total inflow at 996. While this may seem useless at first, consider this: the share price lost 30% today, but the order book is split 45/55, not 35/65. Just 10% of the outflow accounted for the 30% collapse in share price.

Exhibit B: Volume

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/GME/

Today's volume was half of the daily average. Half of the daily average. And while the price 30% movement may seem scary at first, trending down on low volume is actually a bullish sign. Courtesy of u/weedcomet:

"https://finance.zacks.com/importance-price-changes-previous-day-stock-market-2906.html 'After a strong-volume upward move, if the market moves sideways in conjunction with lower volume for several days in a row, it is a bullish sign indicating that all overhanging selling pressure has been relieved and any buying could spark a strong price rise.'"

In other words, flat or even declining on low volume often precedes 🚀 🚀 🌝. Literally any form of significant buying can move the price by a very high magnitude.

There's also been studies done on this phenomena, and correlation was established between sideways or negative movement on low volume and a subsequent increase in price. Feel free to research this on your own accord and post your findings below for all of us autists to read.

Exhibit C: Why Retail Buying May Return Soon

I'm not a financial advisor, and even less so Nostradamus. I don't know when we'll be able to take advantage of this sideways movement to our benefit. What I do know is that that time is approaching. Considering two major events:

1. Transition from Robinhood & other affected brokers to mainstream solutions• This was likely started en masse on Thursday, before RH transfer restrictions kicked in. It takes 2-5 market days to transfer an account to another broker, and about the same for just slushing cash around. That means, a solid chunk of trades will be able to buy into the market beginning tomorrow and throughout the remaining week.• Many are also in the process of opening up new accounts. These were probably started en masse on Friday, when transfer restrictions prevented people from taking the plunge. A solid chunk of brokers need settlement time for instant deposits.- The instant deposits are capped, meaning whale accounts aren't able to kick in yet. Regular deposits takes 1-2 business days to clear. Beginning tomorrow, we'll start seeing larger retail accounts com online and regain their impact on price delta.
2. Robinhood bottleneck may or may not disappear this week. Robinhood just raised another $2.4 billion on top of their previous round, which is more than enough to clear DTC's collateral requirements. According to their own statements as of late, this was the primary reason why Robinhood restricted asset purchases in the first place. If you're willing to trust them on that, it means that we shall see a resurgence in volume from remaining Robinhood users in the coming days.

Conclusions

Putting 1+2+3 together we get a potential recipe for another green EoW. Retail sentiment being positive can translate into higher volume once logistical bottlenecks are cleared and resume ass-ripping activities. HOWEVER, it is by NO MEANS guaranteed, and only the tippy top of the world know exactly what these mfs might pull off in the coming days. Get yourselves ready for either a positive or negative scenario this week / beginning of next.

GME to moon.

ANOTHER EDIT: Welcome to the end of the post. I’m proud of you for making it this far in literacy class. I want to respond to all of your comments and questions but automod deletes all but a couple of them. I’ll answer them as soon as they show up.

UPDATE: Ok automod deleted a bunch of negative feedback which is WRONG. Also some FAQs that got blocked. The questions were valid so here’s the best I could do:

1–Retail made no dent so what to expect now?

• I don’t know what to expect. What I do know is that retail made no dent because of the bottlenecks mentioned in Exhibit C above.

2–Should I buy now or what?

• I want you to make your own conclusion based on available evidence, not seek confirmation bias. I don’t want to be liable for your money and neither does anyone else.

3–Smart money is leaving and you’ll be left holding the bag

• I have yet to see credible evidence in either the trading volume, SEC reports, or formal announcements from any major institutional shareholder of GameStop that indicates they’re leaving. If you have this information please relay it to me (don’t use comments, you’ll get blocked by bot). BlackRock had to adjust due to internal requirements AFAIK correct me if I’m wrong
• UPDATE: this post shows that more instutitional shares flowed out than in. But, more funds bought in than exited. Make of that what you will. https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/laum38/for_the_scared_little_baby_apestake_a_look_for/

4–AMC?

• I have no data on AMC. You should do your own research and make a thread like this.

5–When selling then?

• I have an emergency exit plan like everyone else should. I don’t have the financial capability to let GME go to 0. I’ll keep a small position post-exit just in case. Make an exit plan that aligns with what loss or gain you can stomach. Don’t invest more than you’re willing to lose. Nothing on this sub is financial advice. You don’t have to sell if you can lose everything. I’m probably liquidating my options and doing shares only until further trend confirmation.