CDXC Chromadex – the hidden rocketship

CDXC owns the IPR to the most promising anti-aging molecule available today called Nicotinamide Riboside (NR). Its sold as supplement under the brand name Niagen. Niagen boosts NAD+ better than any other substance on the market. Boosting NAD+ has been found to address many of the ailments of aging. In addition NR also has the unique ability to enter cells directly, no other NAD+ booster can do that. Your cells have special pathways they upregulate for when they are in trouble e.g. virus attack, DNA repair or any other sort of energy crisis that it may have. Supplementing NR will rescue those cells in need, it could be your braincells, nerve cells or muscle damage.

It has GRAS approval from FDA and clearance in the EU from EFSA which is the regulator agency there. They also own the IPR to its potential successor called NRH.

The most notable user of Niagen is Li Ka-shing, Asia's richest man, after he started using it and experienced the benefits he bought 20% of the company and put it on sales in his Watson stores in Hong Kong. It has been choosen best supplement in 2020 by its clients. Many personal anecdotes you can find on reddit or for example here raisingnad.com – I am a user, so are my parents and several friends. Like Li Ka-Shing I have bought shares after I used it for about a year as started to feel healthier, more hair and several other things as the months passed by.

So to the numbers. Niagen has some 200k regular users that each month purchase a bottle of capsules costing 40USD (retail price). The company has now grown to some 50M USD in revenues per year and NAD+ boosting is gaining more and more awareness. 50M USD revenue means its no longer a fluke, its real and ready for the next growth spurt. This product is sold globally, the prime audience of people of >40 who would benefit most is billions. So here the math:

I estimate that Chromadex gets about 25 USD / bottle of the 40USD retail price. Sales margin (SM) on a bottle is high, my estimate at least 70%. More traction and awareness will lead to revenue growth:

1 million users -> 25M rev / month, 17,5M SM / month = 300M revs / year and 210M SM -> estimated Operating Profit 150M USD

10 million users -> 250M rev / month, 175M SM / month = 3B revs / year and 2,1B SM -> estimated Operating Profit 1.8B USD

25 million users -> 625M rev / month, 437,5M SM / month = 7,5B revs / year and 5,3B SM -> estimated Operating Profit 4.5B USD

The market cap today is just 300M USD. The potential for stock price gain is thousands of percentage points.

Happy to discuss and hear your views!