Source
r/AMD_Stock•
xceryx

AMD 2022/2033 EPS and possible price

If you read the prediction I made several months ago, I successfully predict AMD will reach close to 100 after 2020 Q2 ER.

https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/hngnbw/amd_stock_history_and_ranges/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

With Xilinx, 2022 EPS at best is 3. This translate to 150 stock price which will only happen after Q2 ER in the summer. I think we will be in range bound for 6 months.

2023 EPS is at best 4, I am thinking 3.6 as the growth will be slow down because of volume size. The risk reward for 33% appreciation is a bit low considering the slow down could make it even less. I also think 2023 Intel will either has 7nm or they will compete furiously on price of they don't.

TLDR: AMD will reach 150 after summer and 180+ after next summer.

I will be exiting once and reached 145, end of year.

Posted Feb 8, 2021, 6:58 PM UTC

1122
[deleted]•

An alternate estimate:

To AMD revenue of 9.7B 2020, add estimated revenue growth of $3.3B 2021 and $4B 2022, plus XLNX revenue of $3B, brings revenue to $20B 2022. A rough earnings estimate of

E = 2 + (10B new rev) * 0.3/(1B new rev) = $5/share 2020, at a PE of 50 gives share price of $250 by beginning of 2023.

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xceryxOP•

Still need to divide by 1.6B floating share, which means 5/1.6=3

3*50=150...which by the way is 210b market cap.

4
[deleted]•

Thanks for mentioning this! I "roughly" took that into account by using $0.30/share additional earnings for each $1B of additional revenue growth.

3
MoneyMitchOG•

My estimate, although I'm obviously not a professional, is somewhat similar to this. I can actually see $200 by the start of 2022. We'll see, but either way if we get to $250 by the start of 2023 I'd shit bricks.

2
OmegaMordred•

Close to 100 after Q2 2020 didn't really made it...

10
ThainEshKelch•

Just to add to the above: It reached ~85$ right after Q2, and didn't reach 97$ until mid december.

2
deadwish215writes meme essays•

When Nvidia continues going up we should hold it to the moon

There is absolutely no way Nvidia worth more than AMD

I havent gotten myself 5000 series cpu and Big Navi so there were many miss opportunity

Earning will be better when an average customer like me able to buy it by walk in to the store

8
candreacchio•

As much as people want to believe in OpenCL / ROCm. Its developer network and support is nothing compared to CUDA. CUDA has had the developer support for 10 years (released 13 years ago, 3 years of, is this going to work.), with consistant feature upgrades year on year. This is nothing to dismiss as it is the reason NVIDIA are killing it in the AI space.

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CMurr1711•

Agreed.

4
limb3h•

Nvidia is dominant (as in monopoly) in the explosive field of AI. AMD is kicking ass with the products but it's still fighting tooth and nail with Intel in multiple rather mature markets. If AMD doesn't have a good AI story then I'm afraid that it's only limited to the growth in market share gain. AMD will continue to make a lot of money but 20-30% EPS gain will become harder and harder after 2023, especially with Xilinx integrated.

Intel's market cap is 240B right now. AMD+Xilinx is 145B. So OP's exit price is about Intel's market cap which isn't unreasonable. I find myself agreeing with OP's view the more I think about it.

3
xceryxOP•

Nvda in my opinion is severely overvalued. They may have another 20% to go but once crypto bursts, they will be halving their stock price similiar than last time.

I am guessing 300 once bubble burst, which is translate to 180b to 200b market cap.

0
dbosspec•

4eps*65p/e=260 (since it’s growing it can ask for a premium)

7
qcatq•

I am expecting more competition by the end of 2023 for Pat Gelsinger’s impact and also Arm chips. Trash talks/leaks from Intel might come sooner, so just keep that in mind.

2
Wiscoman•

The flaw here is that when your revenue is jumping 30-50% a year, your P/E can be at a high premium. P/E is all over the board these days and doesn't work on fundamentals. The largest P/E we see work largely on hype and Fomo. Tesla, Cannabis, Tech Unicorns are perfect examples. AMD could easily be 100+ P/E if the hype train plays out. AMD does little to play into that. They instead guide conservatively and cautiously and talk about supply shortages

2
xceryxOP•

Last year growth was 50%. Didn't help the forward PE one bit at all.

4
OmegaMordred•

Well it was close to 100 in the beginning, not?

1
xceryxOP•

Because it includes next yesr EPS, during second half of the year.

The second half of the year 2021 PE will be 80ish if amd manages to break 100 to 150 to account for the eps next year by using fwd pe 50.

1
TUGenius•

If only I could buy 2033 leaps

2
Lixxon•

The supply drought really fukin sucks.... Im waiting for the 6800XT and i know also 4 other friends i convinced to go for the 6800 XT waiting for it... some of em also got 5900X waiting in que... some of them went with a 3900XT instead to avoid waiting... they are getting impatient

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JordanZHP•

I’m torn between 6800 XT and 3080. I have a 5600x though.

1
eecockroach•

🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🌝 💎🙌

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OmegaMordred•

This ain't no wsb boy!

Shooooe go and play.

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