GME short will crash the market, this is my buy the dip plans for the crash. Already posted this on WallStreetbestnewbut putting it here to spread the world.
My Game plan after the GME Squeeze Crashes the Market
TLDR: The GME short will crash the market. I believe the crash will be a great buying opportunity, especially if you all the sudden have GME dosh burning a hole in your wallet. Payoff your debits and save the money you need for taxes before reinvesting. I have listed the stocks and ETFs I plan on buying after the crash and you can find my detailed thoughts about these stocks further down.
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (ticker: VOO)
Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS)
Fidelity Quality Factor ETF (FQAL)
Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)
Higher Risk ETFs
AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO)
Cannabis ETF (THCX)
Medium Risk
Amazon (AMZN)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Sony Corp (SNE)
Google (GOOGL)
High risk
GameStop (GME)
BlackBerry (BB)
Tesla (TSLA)
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!!
I AM JUST A SMOOTH BRAINED CRAYON ESTING IDIOT WHO LIKES THE STOCK.
While we are still likely a bit away until the squeeze is Squozed, I just wanted to take a moment to point out the massive buying opportunity this is going to create once the dust settles. I also would like to talk about GMEs potential and just how high the ceiling may go. We can do this by looking at past short squeezes to help us estimate. I also am going to talk about how to best manage any potential GME earnings for long term financial success.
There are been some notable shorts that have hit stupid prices such as HCMC back in 2013. Max share price in that was north of 60 mill. That being said the HCMC short was mostly a war between 2 hedge funds so it was easier to drive the price up that high after the short started. Since only one party had the majority of the shares and could essentially pick whatever as their selling price.
GME has a has more shares shorted then HCMC did and less float % so the potential is there for gme to hit an unbelievably high ceiling. This mostly depends on when people are willing to sell and that’s difficult to predict with gme considering the large amount of retail owners. But if enough people hold gme could possibly hit 1mill + a share. I personally think 1mill is a bit of a stretch but it’s possible. Considering how shorted gme is and how little float is available I expect it to hit at-least 50k probably much higher. So people will potentialy be able to retire because of their GME earnings. Assuming they have enough shares and sell at a high enough price.
First of all, use your gains to payoff any outstanding debit and put away money for future payments. I am sure many of you like myself have a large amount of debit weather it be from university like myself, a car, house, or even credit card debit. So for high interest debit pay that shit off, it will only hurt you in the long run. I.E credit cards and any short term loans higher then 10% and possibly any above 5%.
As for long term loans such as your house or college that’s mostly going to depend on your finical health. If you make millions off of gme and have a solid credit score it might be worth paying off all your debits. I personably I think it would be better to put the money to pay for these debits in a CD and continue paying your monthly payments to maintain your credit score. That being said look into refinancing your loans as you should be able to get a lower interest rate.
Second let’s talk taxes, I know taxes aren’t any fun but they are a large part of keeping our nations functioning and we have a fuck ton of Covid Vaccines to pay for. So taxes are important no one likes them but they are one of the necessary evils of society. So assuming you recently bought your shares of GME and the squeeze happens within the next 11 months likely much sooner anything you make from gme will be considered short term gains. If you are an American like myself that means it is taxed as regular income meaning the tax brackets that no one seems to understand apply.
So lets say you make 1mill off of GME, you bough 10 shares on a whim and sold at 100k a share making a tidy profit. So that’s 1mill taxed basically as regular income. In the United States we have a marginal tax system so the more money you make the higher % of that income will be taxed, sorta. So in the US we have 7 tax brackets as of 2021.
10% $0 to $9,875
12% $9,876 to $40,125
22% $40,126 to $85,525
24% 85,226 to 163,300
32% $163,301 to $207,350
35% $207,351 to $518,400
37% all income above $518,401
So you may think well shit our hypothetical 1 mill is in the highest bracket meaning I am going to pay 370k in federal taxes alone, but that’s not the case. So in the US every one starts paying at the lowest tax bracket and it goes up from their so our 1 mill would be taxed as such
$9,875 at 10%
$30,250 at 12%
$45,400 at 22%
$77,775 at 24%
$44,050 at 32%
$311,050 at 35%
and $481,600 at 37%
Leaving you with a federal tax bill of $334,427
You may also be taxed by your state government depending on where you live. If like myself you live in the state of Virginia your income would be taxed by the state at a rate of
2% $0-$3000
$60 + 3% $3001-$5000
$120 + 5% $5001-$17000
$720 + 5.75% all income above $17001
Leaving us with a state tax bill of $57,242.50 with a grand total of $391,669.5 in taxes. Ouch
Oh well 600k plus is still a lot of money and you could use that to move to a state like Texas that dose not tax your income. That means any future short term gains you earn will only be taxed by the federal government.
Now let’s say you have held your GME shares for a year or longer. You lucky dog, that is considered a long term capital gain and is taxed at a flat rate of 0%, 15% or 20% depending on your income
0% $0-$40,000
15% $40,001-$441,450
20% all income above $441,451
Meaning you would pay $179,921.75 in taxes leaving you with a hearty $820,078.25
So make sure you guys do the math and put away as much money as you need to for taxes next year. I am personally going to put my tax money into a short term CD so it’s still making some money while I am waiting to file. But you may also keep it in a high interest saving account.
Okay now for the exciting part the potential stock market crash brought on by GME.
I know that the hype around GME has gotten a lot of people investing for the first time in there lives and I think that is a great thing. Though I am worried these people will become one time investors and will liquidate their accounts once this is over. If this goes how I expect it to the Squeeze will have a ripple effect on the market. The hedge funds who bet against GME will need to Liquidate their accounts to cover the shorts. Remember these hedge funds have an insane amount of capital and will by law be required to cover ever share they went short on. That means billions of dollars worth of selloffs, that will in turn scare other investors who will then proceed to Liquidate their shares, resulting in a huge market crash.
I personally think this crash will result in a 40-50% drop in the markets value and will represent a great time to get in on high value stocks at a discounted rate. In short even if you only make 100k off of GME the following crash could still make you a millionaire if you reinvest in the right stocks after the dip. Heck even if you do not own any Gme shares this will be a great time for you to start investing.
This is going to be a time to conserve your capital and set up the potential for long term gains. That means companies and ETFs with a solid track record that can Weather the storm. Don’t worry their will still be plenty of dosh for you to be bullish with, but at the end of the day we don’t want to be like lottery winners and blow all of our money in 5 years time. We want to make this money last and consistently grow. To help give you guys a general idea I am going to make a list of Low, Medium and High Risk stocks I plan on buying or increasing my position on after the crash.
Low Risk: Any major ETF, index funds are your friend. ETFs generally speaking are relatively stable and will have steady returns baring any major finical event. There is still some risk involved but index funds are generally much safer then any individual company because they come with Diversity built into them. For example the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF ticker: VOO. This is a portfolio made up of the 500 largest Companies in the United States with large holdings in Apple, Amazon, Facebook etc. meaning it’s a great way to invest in these large Companies while mitigating risk because let’s say facebooks performs poorly or even goes bankrupt (I wish) You still have all the gain from Apple and Amazon who presumably performed well.
That being said not all ETFs are created equal and will have higher risk such as ETFs that focus on emerging markets let’s use AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF as an example Ticker:YOLO. So this is a Weed ETF and focused on the cannabis industry. Legitimate weed businesses are still relatively young and in a gray legal area in some countries (The United States) and outright Illegal in others. That means there is an inherent risk investing in cannabis. Personally I think cannabis legalization is only a matter of time in the United States but we still don’t know which companies will sink or swim meaning there is higher risk then an ETF in a more established industry, but it is still lower risk then buying individual week stocks.
ETFs I plan on buying after the crash.
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (ticker: VOO)
Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS)
Fidelity Quality Factor ETF (FQAL)
Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)
Higher Risk ETFs
AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO)
Cannabis ETF (THCX)
These last 2 ETFs as stated above are a higher risk investment especially considering their recent volatility. I personally believe the weed industry has a lot of room to grow and these ETFs should see decent returns. That being said these may not be the best for long term growth and not good for every investor.
Medium Risk: My Medium Risk picks are of Companies with solid track records that I believe will continue to have consistent growth. They are a higher risk then an ETF because your putting more eggs in one basket, but there is also higher potential for growth. All of these companies have a proven track record, have weathered market crashes in the past and have potential for growth beyond there current share value.
Amazon (AMZN)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Sony Corp (SNE)
Google (GOOGL)
High Risk: these are stocks with a higher risks then the above shares but I believe have the potential to offer massive returns. Investments into these stocks may not be for everyone and you should conduct your own research before buying in. I will also share my thoughts on these stocks and there potential growth.
GameStop (GME)
While we are all on the gme train for the big short I think the company also has great potential to reinvent itself in the next several years. This is mostly due to Ryan Cohen the former Chewy CEO who offered up a plan on how gme can reinvent itself in an open letter he released back in November. In short Cohen plans on turning the brick and mortar retail business into an e commerce game supplier with an emphasis on high end PCs and components. I think that this new business strategy has real potential especially with all the publicity game stop has generated leading up to the short. I believe it’s very possible for the shares to reach the January 28th prices in several years after the short and would be a great way to both support the company that helped make us rich and increase our capital.
BlackBerry (BB)
yes another meme stock BlackBerry had its own price spike back in January briefly hitting $25 a share. Now BB was once know for its high end Mobile devices before being supplanted by Apple and Android. In the years since then they have been focusing on software Encryption and have emerged as a leader In cyber security. This will be a very important Industry in the coming years as self driving vehicles and other autonomous forms of transportation become widespread. They could very well become the gold standard of cyber security and protecting self driving cars. They recently signed an agreement with Amazon and have a lot of potential for growth over the next decade.
Last but not least Tesla (TSlA)
Tesla has had an interesting past few years becoming the worlds most valuable automotive brand while not selling all that many cars. I would argue this is because of Tesla’s business model of Horizontal integration. They are making everything they need for the production of their vehicles and also branching out into solar Tec. That being said most of Tesla’s value is speculating how big the company will get and it still has a lot of challenges to overcome such as reducing the cost of its battery’s. That being said I think it still has a ton of potential for growth especially after a market crash. I am putting it in the high risk Category simply because it’s value is mostly based on speculation.
Anyway that is my current thought on how the market will preform after the gme short and my buying plans after the crash.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
This is my own speculations about how the market will perform assuming there is a crash after the GameStop short. While I have been investing for years I am still a crayon eating, smooth brained idiot Furry. Who is probably just going to spend his earnings on dumb shit like another 3k carpet suit. In short I am just a dumb diamond handed ape who pretends to be a fox on the internet, and also likes the stock and all the other ones I have mentioned above.
EDIT:
Wow this really blew up. I just wanted to say, I appreciate all the positivity and great questions. I plan on going through all the comments and answering as many questions as I can when I get off work. I don’t think I will manage to get to all of them, but I will try my best.
That being said I have noticed a lot of questions about the HCMC Short and taxes so I will go ahead an address those here.
As for HCMC I have gotten a few questions regarding why I included information on it and if I could provide an additional information simply because it is almost none existent on the google. But basically two hedge funds had a small war with each other and it resulted in a short squeeze. This squeeze was started by a revise stock split, basically shares of HCMC were consolidated increasing the value of each individual share and it set off a chain reaction sending the price soaring from 2mill ish to above 60 million.
HCMC was a special event and dose not reflect how a gme short would start. I included it to highlight the type of % increases a short can cause.
Taxes, I included my tax break down as an example and simplified it. As was pointed out to me in one post I did not reduce the initial investment from the selling point when calculating taxes. This was intentional and I am sorry if I confused anyone.
If you guys need help filing your taxes after this I highly recommend finding an accounting service to help make sure your taking all the deductions you can and properly filing. That being said if you make a massive about of money off of this find a tax lawyer who has experience dealing with ultra wealthy clients as they will be able to help you navigate the confusing tax system and minimize your expenses.
Finally, I have noticed several comments regarding broker services like robin hood possibility restricting trading again on the verge of starting the squeeze. While it is possible trading may be halted again by brokers who may or may not have conflicting interests, halting trading again would only kick the can down the road again.
The last trading halt infuriated so many investors that for many of us this is no longer about the money, it’s about sending a message. It is also likely that short positions were increased after the trading halt in January as a means of recouping losses. The hedge funds expected retail investors like myself to sell off in droves but everyone held. Now we’re are back to where we started only now the hedge funds stand to lose even more money when the shorts are called in. I believe it is simply a matter time until this all comes crashing down on top of the hedge funds.
That being said I am not clairvoyant, and this is just my speculation. We have no idea what will happen in the next few weeks, but I am confident. I think the numbers are on our side and we are going to bring about a financial revolution. But only time will tell, regardless of what happens it has been an honor holding with you 💎🙌.
Apes Together Strong.
P.S thank you to the kind stranger who gave me my first gold.
Posted Feb 23, 2021, 8:14 PM UTC · edited