r/AFL Essendon Football Club 2021 Preview writing thread

"Justice is done. Not actual justice, but what I wanted to happen, which is basically the same thing." Who Improved in 2020

Jordan Ridley is the most obvious contender. After just nine games in his career prior to the start of the season, he became a rock in defence, earning a player in the Best22Under22 team, and won not just the Most Improved player award, but the Crichton Medal as the club’s best-and-fairest. He played every game to lead the Bombers for intercepts (5.2 per game) and rank third and fourth in the competition for intercept marks (2.8) and contested mark intercepts (1.1) respectively. While admittedly it was a close-run race until Andrew McGrath’s late-season injury, even finishing second in the best-and-fairest would have been a sign of a massive improvement.

Sam Draper made his debut after several years of development, and didn’t disappoint, becoming the club’s best ruckman and being a massive improvement over Tom Bellchambers. Draper had the athleticism, the physicality, and the moustache to become a cult figure, and is poised to become the club’s primary ruck for a long time.

Kyle Langford showed himself as a strong wingman, the capable utility finally being settled in an ideal position after a few years in the position wilderness.

Will Snelling had his first full season at the club after being selected in the 2019 mid-season draft, and played every game.

“The familiar gut-punch of pain and confusion is back. Hello old friend.” Players on notice for 2021

Jake Stringer has the potential to be a game-breaking forward, but injuries last year stopped him from being at his best. He’s already had an injury-affected pre-season, so it remains to be seen if he can get back to his best.

Devon Smith had an amazing 2018, winning the Crichton Medal in his first season at the club and being an absolute tackling machine, but injuries derailed his 2019 season, and his 2020 was disappointing. Like Stringer, it is unknown if he can return to his best, or if he will slide down the picking order further.

Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, despite having a few solid games in 2020, needs to step up to prove that he has a spot in the best 22, especially with Hooker, Hurley and Ambrose on the way out, Stewart moving back, and Brand and Reid arriving. The B-Zerker now has real competition in the backline, and may or may not be able to cement himself regular selection.

Aaron Francis didn’t play much in 2020 after playing most of 2019, would be good for him to get back to his best. He hasn't been the amazing defender that a Pick 6 would be expected to be, and there are fears that even if he improves he might want to leave to return home to South Australia.

Tom Cutler was a cheap trade in the 2019 trade period, and didn’t have a huge impact in 2020. He is out of contract at the end of the year, so this could be his last chance to stay on an AFL list. Bigfooty descibes his gamestyle as "playing as if he has an egg in his pocket, and that if the egg is damaged then harm will come to his family".

Any of the club’s 30+ year-olds Cale Hooker, David Zaharakis, Michael Hurley, Andrew Phillips and Patrick Ambrose need to watch out. All of them are on the last year of their contracts except for Hurley, and all except Hooker and Phillips are under injury clouds. While most of them had solid game time in 2020, the same can’t be expected in 2021 unless they can step up.

"Four talls, Dodoro? Four?! That’s insane!" – The Essendon Football Club 2021 Season Preview

Welcome to the r/EssendonFC Season Preview.

For those that didn’t see the announcement post, here it is, check when your team is due and discuss on your team's subreddit.

“16 Premierships and counting.” “Don't give me mottos, Essendon, I want figures, data.” Club Details

• Founded: 1872
• President: Paul Brasher
• CEO: Xavier Campbell
• Home Grounds: MCG, Docklands MARVEL Stadium
• Training Facilities: The Hangar, Windy Hill

Coaching and leadership

• General Manager - Josh Mahoney
• Head Coach - Ben "Truck" Rutten
• Assistant Coaches - Blake Caracella (midfield and team offence), Daniel Giansiracusa (backline and team defence), Daniel Jordan (forward), Tom Bellchambers (ruck), Leigh Tudor (VFL), Cam Roberts (Development)
• Leadership Group - Dyson Heppell (captain), Michael Hurley, Zach Merrett, Andrew McGrath (co-vice captains)

”The big boy manifesto goes ‘Big boys are the best, get high all the time’.” List Changes

OUTS

INS

​

2021 Playing List

There’s been many positional switches in the pre-season, with Ham becoming an inside midfielder, Clarke, Ambrose and Hurley moving forward, and Heppell, Cahill, Stewart and Laverde moving back.

The club made the best they could out of three players asking to leave, getting three top ten draft picks, and trading out later picks for players that filled holes in the list. With the club’s young midfield bolstered by Caldwell, and the 2021 draft having many highly rated midfielders, the choice was made to draft four key position players, which ideally will set the club up for years to come.

As of writing, the club has two spots to use in the Supplementary Selection Period (SSP) or Mid-Season Draft (MSD) due to having an unused spot after the 2020 draft, and Ross McQuillan’s retirement. They can open up a third spot by moving Irving Mosquito to the Long term injury list, and possibly a fourth oneif Michael Hurley's hip infection prevents him from returning to football this year. Currently, forward Alec Waterman and midfielder Josh Dunkley are training with the club, but Dunkley haas already been signed to Essendon's VFL squad.

Best 22

There’s been some shifting around of magnets in the off-season, with Heppell returning to half-back and Stewart being played in defence after trying out a few games back in 2020. Hurley was being played forward prior to his leg infection forcing him out of training for a while. Club match simulations have also had Langford in the middle and Shiel on the wing, Ham moving to be an inside mid, and Guelfi playing half-foward.

Most of the club’s 2020 draftees shouldn’t be expected to come running straight out of the gate. Most of them are talls, meaning that they need more development any way, and also since they are all Victorian, meaning that they didn’t play as much football in 2020 as they should have, setting their development back. That said, Perkins would be a strong chance for a Round 1 debut due to his strength and speed. Cox was also very impressive in training and match sims. Most of the players selected for best 22 are still fairly young, but players like Hurley, Merrett, Heppell, Stringer, Shiel and McDonald-Tipungwuti provide experience.

Jake Stringer, Patrick Ambrose and Michael Hurley are under injury clouds as of writing.

"Please don't shit on my dreams, I don't want shit on my dreams!" Players to lookout for in 2021

Peter Wright would be looking for regular opportunity after being traded from Gold Coast. With no other obvious choice, he is clearly intended to be the main key forward going forward. Starved of opportunity at Gold Coast, he should grasp the chance to get regular selection with both hands. Of course, wether or not he'll be any good is a different matter, as he is oft-maligned for failing to live up to the expectations of being a top 10 draft pick, and left Gold Coast as a cap ump after not playing at all in 2020.

Jye Caldwell is a similar story to Wright, having been traded from GWS seeking opportunity. He is young and was a first round pick in 2018, meaning his ceiling is very high. He had his first full pre-season this year, and will likely be playing at his best so far.

Nick Hind is already familiar to some Bomber fans, as he played in their VFL squad and was picked up by St Kilda before Essendon got a chance to in the 2018 draft. While he played forward for St Kilda, he is expected to play in defence for Essendon, especially with the departures of Saad and McKenna, forming a duo at half-back with Heppell.

Harrison Jones spent the 2020 season developing and recovering from injury, but is progressing really well and would be very likely to get games together. Stewart moving to defence clears a spot that is up for grabs.

Nik Cox was the club's first pick in the 2020 draft, and poses a unique challenge to opposition players due to his height and versatility. He can play on the wing and move very quickly despite being 200 cm tall. He impressed in the practice match against Carlton, and is pushing for a Round 1 selection.

Some of the young guys at the club approaching their primes, such as Andrew McGrath, Jordan Ridley, Sam Draper, Darcy Parish and Kyle Langford had a strong 2020, and could go even better in 2021.

"That will probably become clear later, like the French Revolution." 2020 in Review

Home and away: 13th (6-10-1)

After three 12-10 seasons in a row, a middling Essendon seemed to start off well, being 4-1 after five games. But then the club fell off a cliff, winning just one game in their last ten. The club was wildly inconsistent, keeping up with finalists such as Richmond and West Coast, but being blown out of the water by Geelong, St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs, and struggling against an Adelaide that was sitting at 0-7 at the time.

On too many occasions, the club was handballing when unnecessary, kicking into uneven contests, and kicking long floaters towards McDonald-Tipungwuti even though he’s really short. The team also handballed too many times, when a simple kick and mark would have been achievable, and would handball to a stationary player rather than one on the move, making them a sitting duck. The almost constant lack of a tall forward made forward entries incredibly unreliable, and the club's goalkicking suffered.

The coaching transition, while good in theory as it meant the club avoided paying out Woosha’s contract and gave Truck a year to grow into the role, was exacerbated by the two men’s wildly different views on coaching, and the hub life meant that the team was unable to get out of their early season funk, much like North Melbourne. Woosha is a laid-back, player empowering style coach, which worked fine in the immediate aftermath of the saga, but as time went by this style was unsuited to a young list that needed guidance.

Injuries repeatedly cruelled the club’s chances, with Jake Stringer, Patrick Ambrose and Cale Hooker joining Joe Daniher and Orazio Fantasia in the “always injured when you really need them” club. Irving Mosquito also did his ACL late in the season, wiping out his 2021 season too, and Andrew McGrath missed the last few games through injury, arguably costing him the Crichton Medal.

The off-season was a mixed bag. Daniher and Fantasia leaving didn’t affect the best 22 as they hardly played in 2018-2020, but Saad’s departure was unexpected and along with Conor McKenna returning to Ireland, took the speed and zip out of half-back that the club was renowned for.

There are new faces behind the scenes at the club, with new President Paul Brasher and new General Manager Josh Mahoney, as well as new coaches in Daniel Giansiracusa and Tom Bellchambers.

"What's the worst that could happen? Essendon could go winless....Actually that would be horrible if Essendon went winless. It would destroy me" 2021 Expectations

For the first time in a long time, the dreaded “R” word is on the club’s lips, even if it isn’t being said out loud; “rebuild”, I mean “rejuvenate”. That said, Truck has stated that he intends to re-invent Essendon into a blue-collar, team-oriented and hard-working brand of footy. New President Paul Brasher’s comments are particularly open and honest, admitting that the club’s recent performances aren’t acceptable, and acknowledging that change is needed. Despite talk of change, Truck is also keen on reconnecting the club to its past, having players occasionally train at Windy Hill and having new decals displaying the club’s history, highlights, and values all over the inside of the hangar to remind the players of what has come before.

The hallway leading to the locker room now has a panel for each of the clubs 16 premierships, with a 17th blank spot with the words “17 awaits”. For the first time in a while, making finals isn’t the expectation, which takes a load off everyone’s minds and allows the club to focus on more long-term planning. If Essendon can show fight, a game plan that suits the list, and show promising signs for the future then the season would be a success.

With McKenna and Saad gone, expect to see the “run-and-gun” style of Woosha’s time replaced with precision ball-use and strong marking, due to taller targets such as Heppell, Ridley, Francis, and the club’s 2020 draftees. However, if the practice match against Carlton is anything to go by, expect to see more long bombs on top of McDonald-Tipungwuti's head as if he's 200 cm tall.

"Chance would be a fine thing." Fixtures of Interest

• Round 1 v Hawthorn (H) - Round 1, good chance to see the new players
• Round 6 v Collingwood (A) - ANZAC Day match
• Round 7 v Carlton (H) - playing against Adam Saad, potential 100th game for Darcy Parish
• Round 12 v Richmond (H) - Dreamtime at the G
• Round 16 v Geelong (A) - First regular season game in Geelong since 1993, Powercor Country Festival game
• Round 23 v Collingwood (H) - Potential 100th game for Andrew McGrath
• Fixture Double-ups: Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, GWS and Sydney

If the club gels, anywhere from 6th to 10th is possible, but personally I’m expecting the club to narrowly avoid the bottom four and finish 13th or 14th. The draw for 2021, especially before the bye, is pretty brutal, with interstate matches against West Coast, GWS, Port Adelaide and Brisbane, and games against Victorian finalists Collingwood, St Kilda and Richmond. While there is historical precedence for a club blooding youth to unexpectedly do extremely well, most notably the Baby Bombers in 1993, such lofty expectations should be best avoided.

"What we really need to do is create a powerful sense of dread... see, the longer the injury list, the more dread." 2021 Concerns

Essendon never got to field a forward line of Stringer, Daniher, McDonald-Tipungwuti, Hooker, Stewart and Fantasia, due to injuries wiping out some of those players for lengthy period. Mosquito is also recovering from an ACL and will likely miss the entire 2021 season. With Stringer, Hurley and Ambrose all having injury concerns in the pre-season, it remains to be seen if the club can field its best consistently from week to week. Hurley's in particular is a nasty hip infection that left him bed-ridden and as of writing, in crutches with no timeline for a return to football.

Zach Merrett is approaching the end of his contract and free agency, and could very well leave for a contender if the club has a stinker of a season. While this could mean two top 5 picks, Merrett arguably the club's best player and in the leadership group, so losing him would be devastating regardless.

The club’s forward structure, or lack of it, in 2020 was a massive hindrance, and there haven’t been great signs that much is being done to address the issue in the short-term.

Mixture of young players still yet to hit their primes (McGrath, Ridley, Parish, Caldwell, Francis, Redman), older blokes on the verge of retiring (Hooker, Zaharakis, Hurley, Heppell, Ambrose, Phillips) and raw youngsters (BZT, 2019 draftees, 2020 draftees), and not many star players in their primes (Merrett).

Compared to Brisbane, a young team that is a real chance for a premiership, Essendon’s list profile is very similar in terms of players’ ages and experience. The big difference is the number of players with 100-149 games (Essendon 3, Brisbane 6) and players with 100+ games (Essendon 8, Brisbane 13). It is completely feasible that with more experience, much of Essendon’s current 22-27 year-olds would be better able to push for finals. A massive point in Brisbane’s favour however is that their oldest players such as Zorko, Rich, Lester, Robinson and Lyons are still best 22, whereas the only Essendon players of a similar age that would feasibly get lots of game time in 2021 are Heppell and Hooker. Experienced players such as these are vital for a team in the premiership hunt.

Insert Peep Show quote here Additional comments

There are plenty of young players at the club such as the 2020 draft picks, Tom Hird, Cian McBride and Lachlan Johnson that would be good to get a debut and some games.

Hey mate, love this! Look forward to seeing it on r/AFL!

Great read mate, you’ve killed it

Has this been submitted already?