MELVIN's LONG PORTFOLIO IS UP 7.62% IN Q1 2021, so that supposed 49% Q1 loss must be REAL bad. Was someone naked shorting stocks for the big boys to try and impress them so he's finally let in on the big boy conversations? [SEC 13-F filings and stock price data analysis] [Evidence-backed DD]
Hey guys,
by now we have all seen the headlines, Melvin Capital supposedly closes Q1 with a 49% loss:
Of course, whether that's true or not remains to be seen, but I have just spent half an hour inputting stock price changes into Melvin's portfolio, and if it's true, IT'S REAL BAD.
Apart from being a fraudulent short seller, Mr. Melvin is actually a pretty shrewd investor.
For the period ending 31 DEC, he reported to the SEC a Portfolio Value of $22,639,690,000 across 77 positions, opening 5 new ones, and closing 36 positions. Mister Melvin sold a lot of profitable calls and stock at the start of this and previous quarter (at first glance), so it's also likely he is sitting on a sizeable cash reserve. But that's not the crux of this analysis.
In this report for 31 DEC 2020, Mr. Melvin reports holding $19,787,325,000 LONG in the following stocks:
Great bet on AVIS, Mr Melvin! I will spend it wisely.
ANF sure turned out to be a shrewd pick, huh?! Good going Gabe!
Gabe with the X-ray vision on XRAY!
Let's zoom the total in:
Mr. Plotkin posted a 7.62%, or $1.507bn profit in his LONG holdings between the 31 DEC report, and 31 March 2021!
Well done Mr. Plotkin! Thank you for making sure you have enough liquidity to pay any liabilities that may come up in the future!
49% of Mr. Plotkin's LONG portfolio would be:
$10,434,209,633!
A $10.43bn loss, guys!
A $10.43bn loss, so far, Gabe.
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Posted Apr 10, 2021, 2:59 PM UTC · edited