RE: GameStop 2021 dividends speculation

Education 👨‍🏫 | Data 🔢

Okay, folks, I see there is a huge misunderstanding about how dividends are being paid and I thought that would be helpful to explain this from a board member of the dividend-paying company perspective.

Let's start:

Myth #1: "OMG!! GameStop cleared their debts to pay the dividends. They can put whatever number they want and short sellers will pay this to us." No, you can't come up with a random number for the dividends, as you a strictly limited by the total number of a retained earnings from the previous calendar year. GameStop's 2020 RE was $470M total amount of ALL dividends paid out in 2021 cannot exceed this amount.

Myth #2: "They will pay the dividends out by the end of April". No. To pay the dividends out GameStop has to get approval from the shareholders, i.e. at the annual shareholder meeting. Moreover, there are a few important dates in this process: Announcement date, Record date, Ex-dividend date, and then the actual Payout Date. All of this takes time and doesn't happen within a week.

Myth #3: "I think GameStop will have a regular dividend of $0.10 and then a special dividend of $1-3" Possible, but very unlikely. Having a dividend of around $3 will wipe out $210M of cash off their balance, which is technically an economic suicide, taking into account their expenses in buying back the bonds this month.

Myth #4: "They will pay dividends in crypto". I see where this idea is coming from and I think that this is even technically possible, but this will create a huge bureaucratic impact on their legal department. Imagine a ton of paperwork for lawyers for a few months. Taking in account the company transformation plans I am not sure that this is anyhow preferable option comparing to the usual dividend, which will have an equal effect on the shorts.

So, my expectations regarding the dividend saga are:

  1. 2021 Proxy Statement. The first thing we will see is an updated 2021 proxy statement that might include the dividend topic, if this will happen, we should already see a big impact on the share price, as some of the short will start covering immediately.
  2. If GameStop really plans to pay the dividends, it will be somewhat between $0,01 and $1.00. Amounts other than that will leave the company with no cash in a moment, which is a very vulnerable and unpreferable position
  3. I'd not expect the news before the Proxy Statement date, which in 2020 was April 27th. (not putting the date, just the fact) If the dividend topic will be highlighted there, we will see this discussion point in the annual shareholders voting agenda. Thus, make sure that you talked to your broker in order to recall your shares for voting.

However, I'd like to remind you that we have no even a single piece of evidence pointing to GameStop's will to pay the dividends in 2021. All we have now is just our imagination and rumors, echoing in this sub, so please, don't set your expectations too high (remember the high expectations before the Q4 report and its effect on the stock price). Calm your tits down, buy and hold. Shorts are fucked anyway with the dividends being paid out this year or without.

Peace.

Posted Apr 14, 2021, 9:12 AM UTC · edited

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