Speculative DD - The near future
This will be a DD full of speculation. I'll be using other DD posters DD as sources to combine and use as my basis to speculate on how GME's story will turn out. I will extrapolate dates based on available data and based on historical and future dates and occurrences.
I realize everyone here hates dates. I don't, so here's my DD on dates whether you like it or not. Sorry, i can't put a muzzle on my thoughts because the collective doesn't want to hear it. I just want to share my thoughts with you, hopefully you'll see what i see.
Warning: I'm not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice. This are my own thoughts on GME summarized as best as possible.
Wen Next Dividend?
Let's find out / speculate when the shares are going to be recorded. Here's a chart of dates that show previous earning dates, dividend declaration dates, record dates and the final payment dates.
I've gone ahead and manually added the amount of days it took from "Declaration to Record" to occur as well as "Record to Payment" and also an "Earnings - Declaration" differentiator so you can see if dividends were announced before, during or after earnings and in what time difference.
Note the GME dividend stopped at the start of 2019.
Past Dividend Declaration Dates
GameStop has declared dividends in the past equally on earnings, a few days before earnings or a few days after earnings.
- In 1/15 cases dividends were announced exactly on earnings,
- In 7/15 cases, dividends were announced 1-2 day after earnings
- In 1/15 cases, dividends were announced exactly 7 days after earnings.
- In 1/15 cases, dividends were announced exactly 7 days before earnings.
- In 3/15 cases, dividends were announced exactly 2 days before earnings.
- In 2/15 cases, dividends were announced between 3 to 4 days before earnings.
Because of the above stats based on previous GME earnings, let's assume that the next dividends will be announced 2 days after earnings.
- Supplementary Comments: Based on the information above alone, any dates that fall before this date can be purely considered as hype and nothing more.Gamestop has never paid a dividend outside of earnings and even though we've gone through extraordinary events, it would be foolish and irresponsible of Ryan Cohen to do so now.
- Final Assumption on Dividends: The next earnings date that will be as we know somewhere around the 9'th of June. The dividend is likely to be announced 2 days after earnings on Friday the 11'th of June.
Past Dividend Record Dates
Based on the chart i posted above we see that it typically it takes 14 days more (In rarer cases up to 19) to reach the share record date. For this case, we'll assume that the standard 14 days apply here and we'll use that.
- Assumed Dividend Declaration Date: Friday of June the 11'th.
- This would mean that the Dividend Record Date is: Friday 25'th of June.
HOWEVER, here's a Joker. I've mentioned this 3 times so far in my past DDs. Let's go for attempt 4 and hope y'all at least even consider it for a minute or disprove it factually with sources.
The RUSSEL 2000 and RUSSEL 1000 add or remove new stocks in their indexes/ETFs. (All Russels)
An ETF/Index reconstituting is similar to rebalancing, but not really. Reconstitution means that they're going to remove some stocks from their ETF/Index and add others.
When are they going to pick the new stocks you say? I'm glad you asked...
Yes they're picking the stocks that will exit/enter their ETF/Indexes on May 7'th. For the S&P500 typically you'd need to have 4 positive quarters of earnings to be eligible. Regarding the Russel 1000, you need only have a large enough Market Cap (e.g stock price). (Please correct me on this one if you know better this is where i may be wrong, not 100% sure, couldn't find anything more on this.)
Now to understand how big and what it would mean to gain admission to the Russel 1000, here's a basic enough visualization. It's not 100% accurate, but close enough to get the picture.
GME is currently part of the Russel 2000.
Now that you've heard all of this, let's go back to that estimated dividend date if a dividend were to occur. Friday 25'th of June. But wait, the Russel guidelines said the following...
AFTER the market close on June 25.
ERMARGHERD... THE DATES MATCH PERFECTLY!!11!1one!1eleven!!1 WHAT A COINCIDENCE!1!!1 TOTALLY RANDOM!1 1 :D xD lemao rofl ;;,...,,;; RAWR xd (big oof)
But wait. The Russel Index/ETF says its reconstitution will take effect AFTER the 25'th of June Friday. Well that means, the reconstitution takes effect on the 28'th June Monday.
- Final Assumption on the Dividends Recording Date: The share record date for the dividend will be the 25'th of June. Bonus, might join the Russel 1000.
Wen Vote?
Well, for this i'm going to go with this dude's thread. u/ColCrabs
He's done what i've done with the dividend dates but with the share recall/voting dates. His dates make complete sense to me and i'm just going to trust it simply because i mean... look at it...
Shamelessly copy pasted from u/ColCrabs 's thread above. Check him out.
PREVIOUS RECORD DATES
2021 - 10K Filed 03/23
2020 - 10K Filed 03/27 - Record Date 04/20 - Proxy Statement Filed 04/27
2019 - 10K Filed 04/02 - Record Date 05/03 - Proxy Statement Filed 05/14
2018 - 10K Filed 04/02 - Record Date 05/04 - Proxy Statement Filed - 05/16
2017 - 10K Filed 03/27 - Record Date ?????? - Proxy Statement Filed - 05/12
2016 - 10K Filed 03/28 - Record Date 04/29 - Proxy Statement Filed - 05/06
This is literally one of those dumb Facebook math games. ONLY 1% OF PEOPLE CAN SOLVE THIS!!!
Here's an approximation based on the almost repeating pattern.
PREVIOUS RECORD DATES
2021 - 10K Filed 03/23 Record Date 04/15 - Proxy Statement Filed 04/22 - 5/12
2020 - 10K Filed 03/27 - Record Date 04/20 - Proxy Statement Filed 04/27
2019 - 10K Filed 04/02 - Record Date 05/03 - Proxy Statement Filed 05/14
2018 - 10K Filed 04/02 - Record Date 05/04 - Proxy Statement Filed - 05/16
2017 - 10K Filed 03/27 - Record Date ?????? - Proxy Statement Filed - 05/12
2016 - 10K Filed 03/28 - Record Date 04/29 - Proxy Statement Filed - 05/06
Keep in mind. The shareholder vote record and the dividend record are 2 separate events and are not related. (Please correct me if i'm wrong, but as i'm aware, they are)
- Final Assumption on the Voting Date: Based on the above, the date where we get to vote should be some time between the 04/22 - 5/12. If you reaally want to be liberal about it, sure, it could go all the way up to 5/16 till we get to vote.
Wen Market Crash?
Well, this guy here u/JustBeingPunny posted some really nice info about MBS's (Mortgage Backed Securities) and how most banks are going wild with them right now.
His theory is that they're gathering liquidity to be both compliant with the new NSCC/OCC/DTCC/SEC regulations (especially 801) that are coming out soon but to also have capital to be able to cannibalize hedge funds that are being liquidated.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mur8bz/srdtc2021004_the_dtcc_and_jp_morgan_theyre/
So it seems like most banks have prepared themselves for something. What is there to prepare for? All those regulations that are about to hit them hard & more dying hedge fund liquidation auction sales like the Archegos one.
BOFA was #1 ready to the party on March the 2'nd with Citi following in position #2 on March 22'nd (Archegos blowup and auction much? Insider trading much?) because they likely knew what was happening with Archegos.
We could assume that JPM caught wind of this and followed up as contender #3 with their own Netting MBS that will be active on May the 3'rd.
When does Sec rule 15c33 become fully active and fully enforced for the first time since it's inception in 1973? Yes that's right, 04/22.
- Final Assumption on when the Market Crashes: Based on the above, i'm gonna come up with an average date and not an exact date. The date is 04/22 April.
- Comment: Considering the financial world is aware of this date, the crash should already be priced into option chains. See the mega $40 mil VIX bet 2 weeks ago and current SPY option chain prices. I saw this get priced in 2-3 weeks ago in option chains of various products/stocks.
Edit: Adding an extra piece from one of my previous DDs because it corelates to all of this.
400 000 Worthless Option Contracts (Puts)
This is a snapshot of the open interest for GME taken on the 12'th of April. Hopefully it'll provide some of you with some useful information.
- Between the 28'th of April and 28'th of May, call strikes are limited to $390 and $430 unlike other months where $690 or $800 and even $950 are available for purchase.
- On the side of puts, there's strikes starting from $10 and in a few cases $5 for May whereas before, strikes all the way down from $0.50 cent and $1 dollar are available...
- OPEN INTEREST WAS NON EXISTENT for April 26 - May 26.
- Mid week at around 14'th of April, those 400 000 puts on the right side disappeared from the open interest and new puts appeared slightly further in time for the period of May.
- Final Assumption on the 400 000 dead puts: My theory is that this amount of open interest was opened last year during the pandemic as a bet against GameStop. I checked and the strikes for these 400 000 puts was mostly below $20 strike prices which indicates these were placed last year because you don't buy that amount of far out OTM puts for GameStop in 2021.
Additionally, these contracts were closed mid-week around the 14'th of April instead of letting them expire 100% worthless on the 16'th. A day later, new massive put interest appeared within May. This indicates to me that they're doing one last effort to bring GME down some time right before or during May. (30'th of April much??)
Final Conclusion
- Final Assumption on Dividends: The next earnings date that will be as we know somewhere around the 9'th of June. The dividend is likely to be announced 2 days after earnings on Friday the 11'th of June.
- Final Assumption on the Dividends Recording Date: The share record date for the dividend will be the 25'th of June. Bonus, might join the Russel 1000.
- Final Assumption on the Voting Date: Based on the above, the date where we get to vote should be some time between the 04/22 - 5/12. If you want to be liberal about it, sure, it could go all the way up to 5/16 till we get to vote.
- Final Assumption on when the Market Crashes: Based on the above, i'm gonna come up with an average date and not an exact date. The date is 04/22 April.
- Final Assumption on the 400 000 dead puts: We'll see another "Mega" attack sometime before the end of April or the start of May. I recon they are accumulating borrowable shares (why do borrowable shares keep disappearing daily but no price drops?) & combining them with this last ditch effort puts that they rolled over from the 16'th. One last hurrah.
Again i know that DATES BAD!!!1 but that's your opinion and it's not a written rule of this sub, so here i am giving dates out. Mods, please feel free to change the flair if you don't see this as DD. I think it is and that's why i'm marking it as DD and not Possible DD. Regardless, do as you wish.
The dates aren't based on opinion or just plainly nothing (Except maybe the Market Crash one), so please read before you get mad. I leave you with happy thoughts and an image of our Supreme Leader, Chairman Ryan Cohen.
Posted Apr 20, 2021, 10:53 PM UTC · edited