Users of Superstonk own, at MINIMUM, 9 million shares, with retail owning a possible 270 million
Edit: I updated it to show 100 voters. Nothing really changed. Also, if you still want to participate in the poll, you can do so here: https://www.strawpoll.me/42979202/r
This is gonna get downvoted to hell, but oh well. There have been a lot of talks bout FTDs, SI%, dark pool shares, ETF unbundling, institutional ownership, etc. All of this depends on external data that we have no control over - i.e. it can be manipulated or truthful. We'll never know truly know. But what is known is what can be personally controlled - what each and every retail investor has personally purchased. It doesn't matter about any indicators or external data if retail owns a significant part of the float. People have used some proxy methods to try and determine this and predicted retail owning over 100% of the float. Here, I used a poll-based sampling method to predict share ownership of retail. My findings support what the other proxy methods have predicted.
Some major caveats
There are issues with the poll, as with any data acquisition method. My original attempt at polling received a lot of hate and I received many accusations of being a shill or hedgie. Thanks cult mentality. However, here are the concerns with the polling I have done.
- Trolls and other people manipulating results.
- My sample size was 48. In stats speak, this is horseshit. At least 100 is usually considered a "reasonable" sample size with at least 10% of the predicted population size being preferred. The low sample size will make the results less likely to be trusted.
- I forgot to add a "no shares" option to the poll. Of the 200,000 users here, many are probably under age and unable to own stock.
- Superstonk users are more likely to own more shares than the average retail investor.
To attempt to mitigate these potential problems, I have assumed that any entry claiming to have over 500 shares is a troll or a non-share owner. For the sake of the calculations, I removed the 501-1000 and >1000 entries.
Now, of the 100 people who responded:
| Group | People | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 1 to 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 to 10 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 to 15 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 to 20 | 3 | 3 |
| 21 to 30 | 8 | 8 |
| 31 to 50 | 15 | 15 |
| 51 to 100 | 13 | 13 |
| 101 to 500 | 33 | 33 |
| 501 to 1000 | 7 | 7 |
1000 | 11 | 11 Total | 100 | 100
As I said, I removed the 501-1000 and >1000 groups. Now, I simply used these percentages as a representation as the total 200,000 people here. This left me with:
| Group | People | Shares min | Shares max |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 - 5 | 6000 | 6000 | 30000 |
| 6 - 10 | 8000 | 48000 | 80000 |
| 11 - 15 | 6000 | 66000 | 90000 |
| 16 - 20 | 6000 | 96000 | 120000 |
| 21 - 30 | 16000 | 336000 | 480000 |
| 31 - 50 | 30000 | 930000 | 1500000 |
| 51 - 100 | 26000 | 1326000 | 2600000 |
| 101-500 | 66000 | 6600000 | 33000000 |
| 501-1000 | 14000 | 7014000 (Counted as 0) | 14000000 (Counted as 0) |
1000 | 22000 | 22000000 (Counted as 0)| 22022000 (Counted as 0) Total | 200000 | 9408000 | 37900000
Using the principle of ratios, 9.4mil/200,000 = X shares / 1 person = 9mil * 1 person / 200,000 people =~ 47.04
Average owned shares by superstonk users =~ 47
Retail owned = 6 million people * avg owned shares = 6,000,000 * 47 = ~ 282,000,000
According to this calculation and after removing anyone with more than 500 shares, at minimum, Superstonk users alone own 9 million shares upwards of 37 million. If we extrapolate this again to all of retail (which is hard to know), we get a minimum of 282 million shares owned. I assumed 6 million was the number of retail at minimum for two reasons. Firstly, it fits within the number of people at WSB. Second, it fits with the data of US-based retail investment found in a yahoo poll: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/gamestop-amc-reddit-investing-213609595.html.
If the number of people who responded to owning more than 500 shares IS accurate, then superstonk alone owns 38 - 74 million shares, and retail (assuming they buy just like superstonk) owns 1-2 billion shares.
Tell me what you think and if there are any bad assumptions that I didn't mention/think about or incorrect calculations. My favourite part about this is it's very simple, easy to understand, and (hopefully) hard to screw up. But like I said, with a sample size of 100 and the data acquisition method, there is a high chance the results are skewed. I tried to mitigate this, but it doesn't mean it's perfect. Take the information here as you will and make an informed decision if you trust my calculations or not. I'm not smart enough to tell you to buy sell or hold, so make that decision for yourself.
Posted Apr 23, 2021, 4:45 PM UTC · edited