Source
r/asoiaf•
ThatLineOfTriplets

(Spoilers Published) Does anyone feel left out on Jon’s final decision in ADwD?

PUBLISHED

Does anyone else feel super weird about Jon’s final decision at the end of ADwD?

I felt like Jon was doing an admirable job as lord commander with his decision making, he could have done better sure but he had to make unprecedented and difficult decisions and the choices he made made sense. Bowen Marsh gave him shit the whole time but it wasn’t at the point where he outright was ready to kill him. Also he definitely helped out Stannis more than he should have but Stannis also could have slaughtered all of them if he wanted to due to the difference in man power.

Then all the sudden Jon gets one letter from Ramsey and goes completely mental and makes an insane decision just 2 hours after receiving it that he himself calls treason. Why didn’t he talk to anyone else besides Tormund about it? I mean at that point Jon had completely broken his vows and Marsh has every right to stab him. I feel like we were really cheated out of any explanation of his motives or even a fragment of his conversation with Tormund. I really hope we get some sort of explanation if the next book ever comes out.

Posted May 1, 2021, 12:24 AM UTC · edited

6986
ExertuzBalerion the Black Cat•

No, I think it's a perfectly understandable response. Throughout ADWD, Jon is continually tempted to prioritize love (Winterfell, Arya) over duty (The Night's Watch) and indeed makes many little steps in that direction, interfering in southern politics through Stannis. He continually makes risky gambits and alienates concerned factions in the Night's Watch. I think it makes every bit of sense for him to react the way he does to the Pink Letter when it essentially forces him to choose between

a) Confronting the Boltons (something he's been tempted to do this entire time)

or

b) Completely compromising his morals

Edit:

Just to add to my comment here: Jon's motives and reasoning are not "skipped over" at all.

We are given the precise moment he decides what to do, in what I consider one of the most beautiful passages in the entire series:

Jon flexed the fingers of his sword hand. The Night’s Watch takes no part. He closed his fist and opened it again. What you propose is nothing less than treason. He thought of Robb, with snowflakes melting in his hair. Kill the boy and let the man be born. He thought of Bran, clambering up a tower wall, agile as a monkey. Of Rickon’s breathless laughter. Of Sansa, brushing out Lady’s coat and singing to herself. You know nothing, Jon Snow. He thought of Arya, her hair as tangled as a bird’s nest. I made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell… I want my bride back… I want my bride back… I want my bride back…

“I think we had best change the plan,” Jon Snow said.

(Jon XIII, ADWD)

105
geraldalt31892•

No way. Ramsay declared war on the night's watch, what the fuck was Jon supposed to do? Sit and take it? Wait to be slaughtered? Then throw Arya into the mix and it was a no brainer. Just sucks he got stabbed lol

74
ThatLineOfTripletsOP•

I mean Ramsey says he doesn’t have Arya. Also, he doesn’t consult literally anyone on the nights watch and tell them of the letter, he immediately goes to the wildings to seek their help and admits what he’s doing is treason. He could have absolutely confronted this in a way that was not treason and gotten the watch behind him considering they are threatening to kill Jon.

17
ExertuzBalerion the Black Cat•

He could have absolutely confronted this in a way that was not treason

How? He's pretty much already broken his vow, he's been caught red-handed interfering in southern politics. He made a risky gambit and failed and now he has to face those consequences. His options here are to either completely abandon his principles (something that Jon would never do) or defy Ramsay. I think Jon was already toast before the letter arrived, but there is absolutely no way he could have responded to the letter in any way that doesn't end in him getting shanked.

35
NinjaStealthPenguinThe Flame Emperor•

Ramsay declared war on the night's watch, what the fuck was Jon supposed to do? Sit and take it?

Yes, waiting at the fortified castle black with an army of wildlings, nights watch, and Queen’s men would have been 1000x smarter than trying to match on winterfell with a random assortment of volunteer wildlings.also he wouldn’t be a fucking oath-breaker.

-3†
BlindMaestroWill of the Woods•

Castle Black isn’t fortified. None of them are. All of them are designed to be easily taken from the south.

55
ExertuzBalerion the Black Cat•

He's already an oathbreaker. The whole reason why the Pink Letter provokes such an extreme reaction is because Jon's been caught red handed interfering in southern politics.

18
asjbc•

Exactly. Road to hell is paved with good intensions. In the books, John sent wildings with Mance to steal fArya. And, unfortunatelly for Jon, that's not all. He also is responsible for Alys Karstark wedding with Thenn, so he is interfering as hell in Nothern politics, which is not his business, however morally & emotionally justified. How does it looks like? Lord Commander of the Night Watch creats and supports new houses (House Thenn in Karhold), makes political scheems with king beyond the Wall and his Wildings. We know, from his POV, that he is a good guy 😉 with good intensions, but eventually, this is how it looks like for people from the outside. Not very good political move.

26
ExertuzBalerion the Black Cat•

Yep, this is the whole trajectory of Jon's arc in ADWD, I don't know why people think the Pink Letter is sudden.

9
the_frisky_dodo•

Thank you for saving me the rant lol. People use meta knowledge WAY to much to justify the actions of our "heroes" and condemn the people that oppose them. The characters in the books don't have meta knowledge they have history, and in Westeros history the watch already attempted to conquer the North with disastrous results that tarnished their reputation for years. However right Jon is to everyone around him it's clear cut treason and goes against everything the Nights Watch is supposed to represent.

3
Korrocks•

Doesn’t he have pretty good plausible deniability? It wasn’t his job to interfere with Stannis, and he could argue that Mance Raider acted on his own. Even if Mance testified against him, who would believe him?

It seems to me that the announcement that he would March south sealed his fate. All of the other things he did were pretty underhanded or secretive, or could be explained away as a good faith effort to comply. Leading an army of wildlings against the northern lords is not just “inteference” but a direct violation of the entire purpose of the NW.

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ExertuzBalerion the Black Cat•

I don't think he has very good plausible deniability, at least if he's forthcoming with the Watch about the letter and its contents. The Boltons are evidently very angry at Jon and a whole lot of secretive shit is exposed.

I think mutiny was already in the cards with Marsh and the others, but the contents of the Pink Letter and especially Jon's response to it is what motivates them to act immediately.

13
Printpathinhistoric•

It still has walls and a gate, which even a shitty wall and gate is better than none, especially when the alternative is amrching on the most fortified castle in the north

2
kingofparades•

The alternative isn't marching on the most fortified castle in the north because Ramsey has already announced that he's coming to THEM. The alternative thus is figuring out an advantageous location for a field battle.

12
Printpathinhistoric•

Thats fair.

1
sempercardinal57•

Ok so clearly you’ve only seen the show. In the books castle black has no walls shitty or otherwise. It’s just a group of shitty buildings completely indefensible.

12
Printpathinhistoric•

So i have indeed read the books, but i admit it's been a while. Could they not erect a small palisade? Even if ramsay was marching it would take several weeks to geet to caslte black. Idk i just feel lile leaving all your stores and shelter atvthe beginning of winter to seige a legendarily strong fort with a half baked poorly disciplinned army isnt the best move.

3
CaedustheBaedus•

Castle Black isn’t fortified from the back. It has nothing behind the wall specifically for that reason.

2
Woodstovia•

Jon is heavily drunk, Castle Black has no defences to the South and Ramsay is declaring war on him. Jon thinks back to every member of his family people have fucked over and he's been powerless to stop. I'd say fuck it and march South too.

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[deleted]•

[deleted]

33
ThatLineOfTripletsOP•

I wanted him to help Stannis, I just mean he probably helped Stannis out more than he should have as lord commander of the Night’s Watch.

28
ElifThaed•

The Lord Commander was helping the One True King of Westeros

11
10567151•

That's not the Lord Commader or the Night Watch job. Their job is to protect the realm from threats beyond the Wall. Internal squabbles within the realm is not their concern.

16
TrevorLahey93•

I was a little confused too. Ramsay just admitted to not having who Jon thinks is Arya anymore. If I was Jon my first reaction would be trying to figure out where my sister is.

Also why march on Ramsay? Why not get your defenses ready and let Ramsay come attack you like he promised. At that point you have the watch and an insane wilding army at the wall. Plus if Ramsay attacks the nights watch, that should technically put him at odds against the realm. You do not attack an organization that’s purely neutral.

I could see myself being wrong about the defending thing tho, maybe that’s a terrible idea haha

16
Suicidal_Squirrel10•

Except for the fact that Ramsay’s attack would be justified. Jon is the aggressor sending a wilding party to kidnap Ramsay’s wife thus breaking his neutrality oath. As for Jon’s plan of attack in his defense he doesn’t really spend a whole lot of time thinking about it since he gets the letter so suddenly so maybe after he calmed down he would’ve rethought his plan.

11
dedfrmthneckupReasonable And Sensible•

Castle Black is purposefully designed to be indefensible from attacks from the south

5
TrevorLahey93•

Yeah good point. Idk I feel like Jon was just in a lose lose situation at that point.

1
10567151•

Did Ramsay admit that his wife was not Arya in that letter? Because Ramsay writing that letter demanding fArya back from the one man in the North who could identify her and expose him is the reason why I don't think Ramsay wrote the Pink Letter.

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ExertuzBalerion the Black Cat•

No, Ramsay does not indicate that Arya is fake or anything close to that. As a matter of fact, Jon fixates on Ramsay demanding his wife (whom he still assumes is Arya) back and it's implied to be a major reason for why Jon decides to do what he does. Sounds like people need to refresh their memory of what actually happens in that chapter.

13
TrevorLahey93•

I never said that Ramsay told anyone she was fake, idk why the guy your replying to thinks that.

My point was if he’s so fixated on Arya, why not stop and think, she’s not with Ramsay so where is she? I need to rescue her.

Him immediately marching on Winterfell, when he knows she isn’t there anymore just seemed weird to me.

4
ExertuzBalerion the Black Cat•

Ramsay is still demanding his wife back. We can presume that "find Arya" is included in his plan of marching on Winterfell.

2
TrevorLahey93•

I never said that Ramsay admitted she’s not Arya.

5
geraldalt31892•

You Mance-wrote-the-Pink-Letter people are legit kooks. Embarrassing.

-1
10567151•

More embarrassing is you take fantasy books so serious that fan theories annoy you to the point you insult random strangers lol.

2
megxennial•

Agree agree agree!! It was not even about "Arya" anymore, he just wants to kick Ramsay's ass.

And if Ramsay is declaring war, then taking two hours and ONE wildling dude who has never even heard of Winterfell as his counselor, it was just idiotic! I think I've just come to terms with the fact that Jon is an impulsive jock and a hot head.

1
Lugatchius•

Remember the dream/vision Jon has where he cut down Rob and screamed "I am the Lord of Winterfell!"? Jon is dead, probably in a wolf's body if not dead. We've already established the potential for the resurrected to become locked in the final moments of their lives, and I think that Jon died as a result of the part of him in that dream before becoming a wild animal and inevitably being resurrected into his own frozen corpse... How is that not a set up for the second coming of the Night King?

Jon is not Winter, he represents what Winter does to people, that the survivors of such horrors only live by dying another, less literal death. That's the Wildling connection, too. It's why there are no Knights up there.

"I am the Lord of Winterfell!" Pretty sure he was wearing black armor made of ice and wielding a flaming sword when he said that. He isn't giving in to his love of his sisters when he rallies the Wildlings, he is giving in to the prideful Lord, scorned and grown in secret behind the humble facade of a self aware bastard.

0
coldwindsrising07•

His decision made total sense to me. His entire arc since AGoT was building toward this.

And when we look at the Pink Letter, Ramsay is demanding things that Jon doesn't have, Reek and his bride. He is demanding Melisandre, Selyse, Val, Shireen, the baby, who are all guests beneath Jon's roof to be turned over. Jon wasn't going to turn them over after he read what happened to the spearwives.

I think that given what we know of Jon, his decision to confront Ramsay makes sense.

10
ShreyBY•

Not going into the debate of who the author of the Pink Letter is, I think it was specifically written to piss of Jon, throw him off balance. Hence the suddenness of his decision.

7
sempercardinal57•

I mean if the letter is to be believed then Ramsey is gonna be coming to kill him and the wildlings anyway and castle black can’t be defended from the south. Not only that but he thinks his little sister whom he dearly loves is being repeatedly raped by this guy who and has escaped and is somewhere between Winterfell and castle black. He doesn’t have a whole lot of choice at this point to be honest. Sure he could just say he’s gonna turn himself over to maintain the watches neutrality, but then all the wildlings would likely be killed at the least and the wall would go back to being woefully undermanned for the Other invasion.

3
TheDaysKing•

As I recall, Jon's entire arc throughout the ADWD is building up to him abandoning his post to try to save "Arya" from Ramsay; hell, Jon abandoning his post has been coming since the first book. He's constantly thinking about it, and it gradually becomes a top priority for him once he has power and influence as Lord Commander. Until he's finally called out by this demented fuck who, from Jon's perspective, has taken his family's home and legacy and has almost certainly raped his kid sister. He was faced with a choice between swallowing his pride and giving in to whatever Ramsay Bolton, Lord of Winterfell, demands or risking it all to save his sister and avenge his family.

The simple answer is that he started listening to his heart instead of his head, and that got him killed. Like father, like son.

3
BookOfMormont🏆 Best of 2020:Blackwood/Bracken Award•

I'm gonna go a little further than "Jon's decision is understandable" and assert that Jon's decision was actually one of the best decisions possible at that juncture.

In the immediate term, Ramsay's letter has put the Night's Watch in a literally impossible position. Since the Night's Watch does not have Theon or Arya, it cannot comply with the letter's demands, and nobody has any reason to think Ramsay Bolton will not follow through on his threats. Neither compliance nor neutrality are possible; Ramsay is coming to destroy the Night's Watch unless the situation changes drastically.

But Ramsay doesn't really have anything against the Night's Watch; he's really just got it out for Jon, specifically. As Lord Commander, Jon can't appease Ramsay. One of the only options available to him at this point to protect the Night's Watch is to leave it. As an oathbreaker, without the support of a single sworn brother of the Night's Watch, the remaining Watch can plausibly, indeed even rightfully, disclaim and disavow Jon. By marching south with an army of wildlings, Jon will either defeat Ramsay, saving the Watch, or he will be defeated by Ramsay, giving Ramsay a scapegoat and leaving the Watch itself blameless for Jon's personal defection. If Jon dies at Ramsay's hand, do we really think Ramsay is still going to bother to march north just to fuck up Bowen Marsh or whoever the new LC would be?

He is pretty explicit that this is his thinking:

“The Night’s Watch takes no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms,” Jon reminded them when some semblance of quiet had returned. “It is not for us to oppose the Bastard of Bolton, to avenge Stannis Baratheon, to defend his widow and his daughter. This creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words … but I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows.

“The Night’s Watch will make for Hardhome. I ride to Winterfell alone, unless …” Jon paused. “… is there any man here who will come stand with me?”

. . .

No man can ever say I made my brothers break their vows. If this is oathbreaking, the crime is mine and mine alone.

​

Of course, that's once Jon has already received the Pink Letter, and lots of folks say that the Night's Watch is only in this dire situation in the first place because Jon meddled too much. Sure, we might be sympathetic that Jon wants to help Stannis and cares for Arya and Alys Karstark and such, but, the argument goes, isn't he still breaking his oath by meddling?

My answer to that is that when strict morals and literal oaths meet the real world, compromises must be made. That's, I mean that is basically the entire arc of Jon's story. Jon keeps getting put into positions in which his moral code comes into conflict with itself, and Jon is forced to prioritize the highest good. Yes, Jon is sworn to take no part, but he is also sworn to defend the realms of men. Simply put, those two tenets are not equally important. The primary responsibility of the Night's Watch, the reason for its existence in the first place, is to defend the realms of men against the great enemy amassing beyond the Wall. Staying apart from Southron politics is simply a measure to help ensure the Watch has the support of the realm when it needs it, and the southern lords have mostly already failed to honor this arrangement.

Much as we sympathize with Jon and his competing loyalties to the Watch and his family, this isn't really about him and his Stark ties. Any Lord Commander would have found parts of their oath in conflict with each other. Jeor Mormont and Alliser Thorne did as they were sworn to do, and sought to honor their vows by defending the Wall with the help of the Seven Kingdoms. They were ignored by all but Stannis. When one side of a war supports the Night's Watch, and the others do not, then the goal of successfully defending the Wall comes into direct conflict with the goal of staying out of southern politics. Any Lord Commander would have been forced to determine which part of their oath is more important.

And as he usually does, as is part of his character arc, when put into a position where he has to choose between competing moral priorities, I think Jon made the right choice.

2
ThatLineOfTripletsOP•

Man I gotta say I really like your take on it. The only gripe I have now with the way it was told is that we aren’t really let in on jons though processes, the chapter unfolds super quickly and we get no real insight so it just feels in the moment that Jon completely forgoes everything he’s been growing towards and building to. I think it would have worked a lot better though if TWoW came out reasonably close to ADoDs because this was clearly meant to be a cliffhanger that was explained later imo but that only works if it doesn’t end on the cliffhanger lol

1
BookOfMormont🏆 Best of 2020:Blackwood/Bracken Award•

That specific chapter does indeed go by so fast it's difficult to swallow in one piece. I agree, some reflection on the decisions in TWoW would have made it a lot easier to parse.

That said, I also think knowing where he ends up makes Jon by far one of the more interesting characters to re-read. You can see how little choices made far earlier all build toward this result, all the way back to AGOT. Like even as an angry new recruit at the Wall being bullied by the other new boys, Jon is put in the position that his personal honor, important to the warriors of Westeros, comes into direct conflict with his obligations toward his future sworn brothers. Next up his family loyalty is tested when Robb calls the banners, then beyond the Wall he faces Qhorin's literal test of what to do with the captured Ygritte, before Qhorin then puts him in the most impossible moral position he has ever found himself: he must kill a fellow sworn brother and break every oath he has sworn, in order to fulfill his duty.

It might not be easy or immediate, but Jon always chooses the greatest good that he can. That's what makes the building conflict with Bowen Marsh so tragic. Jon expects other men to share his sense of duty toward the common good, no matter how painful and no matter what sacrifices are required. Jon seems not to fully realize that Bowen Marsh is so pedantic and literalist about the traditions of the Night's Watch that Marsh isn't just unwilling to make sacrifices to "defend the realms of men," Bowen Marsh doesn't even have the moral clarity to understand which parts of his oath and his duty are the important parts. We have very little indication that Marsh has ever had to face the kinds of hard decisions that Jon has navigated time and again in his young life. Jon is constantly facing down raging internal debates between consequentialist and deontological ethics, whereas if Marsh has a moral internal life at all, it's some dumb mixed up version of virtue ethics where he has mistaken a full larder, inaction, and unswerving hatred for wildlings as cardinal virtues.

2
We_The_Raptors•

I think calling Jon's decision mental, insane treason is a little short sighted when you consider their predicament with the Others. Taking Winterfell seems crucial to stopping that invasion. It has all the supplies they need and is a position of power that is much harder to ignore than castle black (no one's answered Jon's plea for help). Also, marching off with the Wildlings is exactly what the wall needs. It relieves the food shortage they're facing and ends that timber box of a situation. So all in all, I feel Bowen Marsh is so focused on the immediate dangers that he's forgotten the true threat.

1
BrazilianStockBoy•

When i first read the chapter it didn't feel quite right for me. I can understand that Jon had a internal battle going on between getting involved with the war and politics of Westeros to save his sister and prevent the Boltons of getting Winterfell, caring about the free folks that are trapped in Hardhome, and keeping his duty as Lord Commander of the Night's Watch.

But the first passage that doensn't add up for me is:

“The Night’s Watch will make for Hardhome. I ride to Winterfell alone, unless …” Jon paused. “… is there any man here who will come stand with me?”

The two options Jon's gives here to the Night's Watch doens't make anysense. The first one is Jon's call to the other brothers to break their vows, when the reasons for a march to Winterfell are in the greyzone (which i still feel doen't fit Jon's development). And the other option is going north of the wall to save the "free folks", which most of the Night's Watch still doesn't give a crap (this one i can understand, given all the development and contact Jon had with the free folks) . After the speech, the chapter follows:

" Yarwyck and Marsh were slipping out, he saw, and all their men behind them. It made no matter. He did not need them now. He did not want them. No man can ever say I made my brothers break their vows. If this is oathbreaking, the crime is mine and mine alone."

At that moment, i guess most people find that the water has spilled, and the brothers can take no more of Jon's command. But for me, it feels that the subsquent part, is where the brothers finally can't accept Jon anymore. He simply seems to care more about protecting the Giant than the knight the giant just killed.

“Leathers, talk to him, calm him. The Old Tongue, he understands the Old Tongue. Keep back, the rest of you. Put away your steel, we’re scaring him.” Couldn’t they see the giant had been cut? Jon had to put an end to this or more men would die. They had no idea of Wun Wun’s strength. A horn, I need a horn. He saw the glint of steel, turned toward it. “No blades!” he screamed. “Wick, put that knife …”

The Giant just killed a Knight, and the words Jon are saying outloud to the other brothers are they are scaring the Giant. After that, Wick stabbs Jon, with the other brothers following.

English is not my first language, and maybe i am not interpreting right. But the Jon's decision to abandon his duties and march to Winterfell, while commanding the brothers of the Night's Watch to march South of the Wall, doesn't feel like Jon. Until that point, he was involved with the problems in Winterfell, but that actions were in the greyzone. To just call out for a march to the south, while seeming to care way more about the free folks than the people of Seven Kingdows, Jon just loses all his supports, leading to he beeing stabbed.

1
croutonianemperor•

Im particularly fond of the theory PJ puts forward: of his having been drugged.

-1
[deleted]•

GRRM is fous for flip flop between motives until he shoe hornes the ending he wants to get out of them.

-2
Mizaistorm•

it s same as ned excecution robb marrying whoever her name is ..release jaimie...theon take winterfell.something happen because plot demand to.

-3
RyanBarnes13•

Jon set them up. He knew exactly what was going to happen. Reread his chapters again. He has known since before he was elected lord commander they were plotting with the Lannister’s. He also sent every friend to safe castles.

The fact he cannot grasp his sword is key. He is doing what Alysane Mormont did, wear multiple layers of armor. This is the only time Jon cannot grasp his sword over his shoulder.

Basically how do you get out without betraying your vows? By having the traitors attack you with the nights watch, queens men, and the mountain clan lords all as witnesses. After the mutiny Jon cannot stay.

It was all staged, because until Jon actually leaves castle black he has not abandoned his post. He is still there when he is attacked. He did not desert.

-8
ExertuzBalerion the Black Cat•

That makes no sense at all. We have Jon's inner thoughts, we know that he was not anticipating an attack, and we know he's been severely wounded by the end of the chapter.

16
RyanBarnes13•

No you don’t. You know he got a scratch on the neck. And you know he somehow can’t grasp a sword on his back but sure can fight off attackers, then grasp the knife in his gut and yank it out.

Should raise all sorts of red flags. Those fingers don’t work remember??? Red flags. Can’t reach over is shoulder suddenly? Red flag. What you have is a staged show. With all of castle black watching. And yes Jon knows. She told him to watch the sky. After the raven arrived Jon believes her. Basically go reread it.

Martin even was shocked people thought Jon was dead in the interview that covers this.

-7
ExertuzBalerion the Black Cat•

Because Jon is obviously going to get resurrected. I'd say "you're reading too much into it" but you're actually ignoring a shit ton that doesn't conform to your absolutely unhinged theory

8
RyanBarnes13•

Yawn, yeah sure bud. Cause ya know, we just resurrect characters for the hell of it. The whole point of Jon is the pact of ice and fire. Which if you bother understanding anything, calls for a marriage with a stark.

Which is exactly what the jon/Arya romance in the original outline calls for. So ya know, dying might go against what Martin has written since the very first book.

So no, there is absolutely zero reason for Jon to die.

That is just fan nonsense to hope for some crazed bullshit. You already got lady stoneheart. Enjoy it.

-4
RyanBarnes13•

Just accept the fact you can’t understand why Martin writes characters wearing lots of layers of armor under the clothes in the same book, looking exactly like bran and tommen when they didn’t get hurt fighting. And that Jon is suddenly remembering that scene several times in 2 books, and that he one time only can’t reach over his shoulder. It’s called armor.

Honestly, pay attention to what you read. I’d say “you’re not reading good enough” but well that’s pretty obvious. This stuff is laid out over and over in the books.

-7
ThatLineOfTripletsOP•

It’s extremely hard to believe that Jon had been plotting to get assassinated since before he was lord commander in order to get out of the nights watch

7
RyanBarnes13•

No I’m saying he has known the commanders were already plotting with the Lannister’s. He hears them in the tub.

He knows each action and the consequences, and if you pay attention you see the exact moment he believes melisandre and her warnings. He sent everyone away but tormund. He changed the plan.

Then when He is giving the speach, he looks for melisandre. She is there. When he is done, she has already left. He watches the traitors leave. Right before he is attacked, men poured from every keep. Northmen, freefolk, queens men, nights watch.

He knew the attack was coming, and made it public. The armor is from his multiple times remembering bran and tommen fighting.

3
TheBlowingWinds•

I am not agreeing with Ryan but he says that Jon has known since before becoming LC that they are plotting with the Lannisters, not that he was already plotting to get assassinated.

2
NinjaStealthPenguinThe Flame Emperor•

Jon was merely pretending to be a shitty leader, okay.

3
RyanBarnes13•

Yes. As he says, he already knows exactly what they would say. He needs different leadership in charge. Not them. And at the end he is done with them. Pay attention to what your reading and you might notice this stuff.

-3
[deleted]•

100% agree. I will stand by this being maybe the weakest writing in the series next to the catspaw dagger Joffey reveal.

It feels like pure plot contrivance to get Jon betrayed and not something that Jon would naturally do at that point in the story.

-12
ExertuzBalerion the Black Cat•

I completely disagree, it is the polar opposite of plot contrivance. His entire arc in that book was leading to that decision.

22
Prizmatic_Bezel•

I learned a while ago this guy is a troll. Just ignore.

0
[deleted]•

His entire arc was leading to him randomly deciding to break his vows because Ramsay sent him a letter calling him a bastard a bunch, what?

He even confirms Arya escaped Winterfell, so Jon could you know just send a couple rangers to look for her in the North.

Also this isn't AGOT/ACOK Jon who was a steward/ranger that tried to abandon the wall and then learned his lesson that his vows cannot be broken over westerosi politics. But now as Lord Commander he's going to abandon his entire post to go all Leroy Jenkins v. Ramsay?

It doesn't make any sense.

-8
ExertuzBalerion the Black Cat•

His entire arc was leading to him randomly deciding to break his vows because Ramsay sent him a letter calling him a bastard a bunch, what?

Yes, and there's absolutely nothing random about it. Jon's whole conflict since AGOT has been of love vs. duty.

He even confirms Arya escaped Winterfell, so Jon could you know just send a couple rangers to look for her in the North.

Except the letter clearly states that Ramsay demands his wife back, along with a whole host of other morally unacceptable demands.

Also this isn't AGOT/ACOK Jon who was a steward/ranger that tried to abandon the wall and then learned his lesson that his vows cannot be broken over westerosi politics. But now as Lord Commander he's going to abandon his entire post to go all Leroy Jenkins v. Ramsay?

Yes! It's not like he makes the decision lightly. He makes it when he gets an incredibly provocative letter with devastating implications that puts a massive dent in all of his plans and basically screams YOU'RE FUCKED.

16
Forward_Company•

The entirety of ADWD is Jon making incrementally larger decisions that favour love over duty. Although he tries to justify this to himself, he eventually comes to the conclusion that he's had enough of watching his family be butchered and he wants to take the fight to Bolton. From the top of my head, Jon in ADWD does the following:

  1. Provides Stannis's men with winter clothing + rations

  2. Gives Stannis strategic advice which enables him to go on the offensive against the Boltons

  3. Sends Mance and 6 other wildlings to rescue his sister

  4. Takes in Alys Karstark, kills Northern soldiers and imprisons Northern nobles

  5. Marries Alys Karstark to a wildling lord

  6. Provides escorts to Tycho Nestaris, thereby enabling Stannis to go on a massive offensive against the throne should he survive the Battle of Ice

Only after all this does Jon desert, in response to a letter that declares open war on the NW due to Jon's various decisions. Jon realises that he doesn't want to become like Maester Aemon and watch the last members of his family get killed off. From Jon's perspective he's completely fucked anyway, he may as well take the fight to the Boltons.

14
SorRenlySassol•

I don’t think we’ve heard the last about why Joff sent the CP. The rationales we’ve heard so far are unlikely, and they are just guesses. I think Littlefinger could have been his inspiration.

1
Alys-In-WesterosAlys Through the Dragonglass•

I totally agree on LF and catspaw. He even brags about having clean hands to Sansa while using dagger to cut fruit in ASOS.

1
10567151•

Explain the train of thought here. Littlefinger sends a spy with the King's party and then orders him to steal one of the King's knives and kill one of the Stark boys just in the chance one of them falls into a coma? Like what is the benefit for Littlefinger. Everything is too random.

3
SorRenlySassol•

Here’s how I think it went down:

Before leaving Kings Landing, LF pulls Joffrey aside and tells him that Ned becoming hand would be very bad, bad for Robert, bad for Cersei, bad for House Lannister, but most of all bad for Joffrey and his eventual ascension as king. Alas, the only thing that could prevent this from happening is if some great tragedy were to befall House Stark, say, the sudden death of a child.

So Joffrey gets to Winterfell with murder on his mind, but when Bran falls it would seem like the problem has resolved itself. Ned comes south anyway, however, so Joffrey sends the catspaw back to finish the job. And when they reach the Trident with still no word of Bran’s death, Joff reasoned that something went wrong so he set his sights on the next Stark victim, Sansa.

The benefit to Littlefinger is that he ratchets up the tension between wolf and lion, and adds more cover to the fact that he had Jon Arryn killed.

1
Alys-In-WesterosAlys Through the Dragonglass•

I’m not saying I know why or how he did it. I’m just saying the text in ASOS where he says he uses catspaws and talks of hidden daggers makes it a possibility in my mind. We know he manipulates Joffrey in other cases. Maybe he said things to him before that would get him to think this was something that would please his father. Maybe it wasn’t specific to Bran. Maybe he just wanted to start something between Stark and Lannister and create chaos and since Bran was already injured, Joffrey took the opportunity. Again, I don’t know, but I think there’s a possibility he’s involved and we don’t know all the details yet.

1
Bennings463Unreliable Narrator•

Littlefinger has been behind two of the three major murders in the plot so far; I really don't care for him actually secretly being behind the third.

Like, even if this was all "misdirection", misdirection for what? You could cut out all of the Catspaw stuff from the third book and it wouldn't affect the plot at all.

0
SorRenlySassol•

I think more than that. He killed Lysa. He probably prompted Joff to kill Ned, might have set up Ser Hugh, repeatedly tried to take out Tyrion . . . He’s been a busy little conniver.

Ironically (or perhaps not so ironically), the one death he did prevent was Dany’s, and this just happened to suit Illyrio’s need to speed up the Dothraki invasion. Coincidence?

You could have taken out the reveal on the Arryn murder in the third book as well and it wouldn’t affect the plot. Everyone who cared about that was dead by then. So the misdirection is all about hiding Petyr’s full influence on the story so far.

1
Bennings463Unreliable Narrator•

But that wasn't a misdirection, it was an actual reveal.

Don't we already know that Petyr is incredibly influential on the story? Killing Jon Arryn was the inciting incident.

1