there's a school of thought that opponents' three-point percentage can be flukey. Knicks fans should not agree, because their point differential would drop from +2.7 to -0.5 if their opponents made threes at a league-average amount

It's been a dream season for the New York Knicks and their fan base. After going 21-45 last season, they've springboarded all the way up to 36-28. Tom Thibodeau has the defense performing extremely well (3rd in defensive rating). R.J. Barrett has taken a strong sophomore leap. Julius Randle has broken out as a true All-Star and All-NBA candidate. Most impressive of all, the turnaround has u/bootum/ walking around whistling and singing their praises.

Sometimes, W-L record can be deceiving, which is why statisticians often utilize "point differential" instead. But even by that metric, the Knicks look like a legitimately good team. They are +2.7 per game in point differential this season.

However, the folks down at Debbie Downer Inc. wanted to point out one potential red flag. The Knicks hold opponents to 33.7% shooting from beyond the arc, by far the lowest in the NBA. In a league where the average percentage is up to 36.7%, that's an incredible number.

So wait, what's BAD about that...?

Well, there has been some talk in the analytics community -- link 1, link 2 -- that opponents' three-point percentage may be more random and yield to more variance than we realize.

Is that true? I have no idea myself. It sounds true, game to game. But logically, you'd presume good defense and active perimeter defenders would bother three-point shooting over the long haul as well. The Knicks have a good scheme, and play with good effort. They also play slow -- 30th in pace. That may help them limit their opponents from getting easy threes in transition.

Still, if you want to be a skeptic, you may get concerned that the low 33.7% three point percentage may swing back up closer to the mean over time. Opponents are also shooting only 75.3% from the line against them, 3rd lowest in the league. Again, is that a fluke? Or is Coach Thibs emphasizing which players to avoid fouling? It's hard to tell right now.

But overall, Knicks fans should hope that opponents' three point percentage is NOT random. As mentioned in the title, they would not have as much success if that regresses to the mean.

Knicks' opponents shoot about 35.5 threes per game, making 11.9 (as mentioned, 33.7% success.) If we boost that success rate up to the league average of 36.7%, then suddenly their opponents would be making 13.0 threes per game. That's a huge swing that would amount to 3.2 points per game. In that event, their point differential would drop from +2.7 to -0.5.

So what's real? The Knicks' awesome defense? Or the "opponents' 3P% is random" argument? No clue; I'm not a stats guy or researcher. Most likely, the truth is somewhere in between. It'll be interesting to keep an eye on it as the next few seasons unfold.