Theory: Are we already in runaway train mode or in for one last weak shakeout attempt?
None of this is financial advice. I'm not a financial advisor.
Intro
Welcome to another one of my insane posts where i try and predict the future based on shaky data (and sometimes non-data) as well as human psychology. I'm gonna mark myself as a looney bin so you can stop taking me seriously here.
As per section #3, paragraph 2 of r/SUPERSTONK RULES, i hereby exercise my right to speculate about GME stuff. If you don't like speculation or have a prick up yours for whatever reason, push it further in :3 and/or this is the point where you switch off.
Won't be replying to shitty comments.
^(I don't need to remind you that DFV was called a looney bin a year ago and clowned by people for his idea that a $2.5 dollar company would somehow go above $12.)
The last Episode of my Theoretical DD (Dick Dick)
Linear Margin Call Trigger Price (LMCTP) - Again
If you don't know what this theoretical bs is, check my DD link above or this one.
What is it?
The idea is that there's a magical floating line that Hegges are trying to keep us under to avoid getting margin called.
Supposedly this line drops by -$4.80 everyday meaning that for every day that passes, they're bleeding money.
Why $4.80? Just because we need an average number that indicates how much they've been bleeding everyday since Jan to keep these shorts open in terms of short interest, extra short attacks, High Frequency Trading costs, "bailouts" like Melvin and maybe others, buying out positions from dying HF's etc etc etc etc. tldr: It's a money bleed factor.
Here it is visualized.
The blue line is the line they apparently like to keep the price under (theoretical).
They seem to be disgusted so much by this theoretical ceiling that the price immediately recoils the moment it goes anywhere near it. Ideally they want to keep the price of GME under this ceiling to avoid a margin call and possibly them failing to meet that margin call.
Since the last 2 weeks, we started touching this lava line but there was no sudden disgust or aversion of it by their part. What does this mean?
Did they run out of money to maintain their short train? Or is there something else going on here?!
Basic workings of the LMCTP and the sudden hike ABOVE the margin line.
Does this here mean they got margin called and have failed their margin call and liquidations have started e.g there is some covering going on?
- Is this the supposedly non existent "Glacier" HF (i don't think so, sounds like HF fud excuses to try and explain/disguise this price move).
- Is this the start of liquidation or unwinding of someone's position/s?
- Is it a tarp?
- Is it just regular expected price movement and this is all just a BS theory?
Any one of the above points could be it. I'm considering points #2 and #3 as the most possible.
A closer look of what happened since last week - this week.
Is this actually a tarp? Did they find liquidity from somewhere and are letting the price run up only to simulate a "price drop" just below the LMCTP line which is their actual safe zone?
Nobody knows what's about to happen... We've either entered a true legit margin-call-esque zone with only upwards movement awaiting us OR we're about to witness another bulltrap and consequent price drop to ~$110 and continuation of HF bullshittery.
I don't know which one of the two is the correct assumption.
- Mark Cuban, suddenly woke up yesterday and decided to make a "cryptic" tweet about margin calls.
- Twitter, some Twitter bro twote last week that there will be margin carls on WallStreet this week.
- Glacier HF, this fud appeared perfectly timed. What is it's purpose? To hide incoming margin calls behind a new easy to hate face that's NOT Shitadel or Marvin?
- Shitadel and Marvin 13F Filings, Marvin's filings show he wants confidential treatment and how he supposedly isn't short on GME anymore(no one believes this bs). The Glacier HF bs started on the exact day of the 13F filings, coincidence? Nope, noperoni, noperino.
- AMSee, is this getting unwound first because it's the lesser/smaller short? GME gonna follow last because it's more complicated, much bigger shitshow?
So why all the (amateur) distraction tactics? What's happening?
Did margin carls happen and did certain funds fail to meet them and liquidations have begun? Do they NOT want us to know that this is the case or is this a setup for a final shakeout price drop to $110 as per LPCTM before the start of the squozazle????
Personal opinion based on the above theory
I'm split hard between this being a final shakeout / rugpull to $110 to shake GME holders off and them actually (trying to) hide that margin calls and margin call fails have already started and that the ball is rolling.
As per my previous DD here regarding the FTD cycle resets, i expect this will all play out on the 19'th OR the 20'th.
If we fail to break down to $110, then i'll be 80% convinced that the squozazle has begun but as always with reservations and skepticism as to possible ulterior motives of the people who've gotten themselves in this mess.
Happy squozazlings ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Posted May 18, 2021, 9:33 AM UTC · edited