Thoughts on this line? 25NL
25NL Online 9max
Stacks
Hero: 87.53
Villain: 139.45
Straddle is on. Hero looks at QhQs in +2 and opens to 2.25. Villain calls in LJ. HJ and +1 calls.
Flop: (Pot = 9.35)
456 rainbow
Hero bets 6.50. Only villain calls.
Turn (Pot = 22.35)
3s (two spades now)
Hero bets 15. Villain calls.
River (Pot = 52.35)
Ah
Hero bets 20.Villain calls.
Thoughts on this line with QQ in this spot? How often should I be check - giving up on this flop?
Posted May 25, 2021, 7:39 PM UTC · edited
211
I think your flop bet is fine and the people saying you should 100% check the flop are wrong here. In a heads-up pot on this texture vs the BB, yes, check this flop. But vs HJ and LJ?
They shouldn't really have any 2-pair on this board, and they can only have 78s, not 78o, which is only 4 combos. So they have the sets, they have draws, they have worse pairs/overpairs, and they have random Ax/Kx that you don't mind just folding out in a multiway pot. The flop bet is fine.
But when the turn completes the straight, why are you still betting? Imo, x/c the turn so long as the sizing is reasonable and then probably x/f the river.
Checking this flop in rainbow config after PF is so bad you might as well commit to folding if you're gonna check.
There are so many Broadway hands that call PF that fold that flop. There as so many Ax-suited that have a pair and an Ace that call. There's plenty of pair+draw and backdoor bullshit that call or fold (fine either way). There's plenty of 77-JJ that that turn up here that call (or value own themselves). Sometimes you do get smashed by 2pair, sets, and the straights, but there are fewer combos there than above that I think makes this a clear bet.
Turn bet isn't terrible either, can easily fold of raised.
Come River tho, especially an Ace, there are so few hands you beat because all the Ax hands just made 2pair, betting is basically just lighting money on fire block betting because you have like no value range
Seriously. In a heads-up pot vs either the LJ or the HJ, I'm cbetting this flop with a 70% sizing with the majority of my range since I have all the nutted overpairs and they have such a broadway heavy range that really struggles to even call the flop, let alone a second barrel.
The only thing that multiway changes is that once you do get a caller, you need to slow down on the turn because mutliway people are much less likely to float with random AJ or whatever. But checking the best possible overpair (since no one here can have KK or AA) which is nevertheless extremely vulnerable makes no sense here.
If you're gonna bet any overpair, QQ and JJ seem like the nut ones to do it with (almost no chance of higher overpair but high vulnerability compared with AA)
That being said I 100% agree w range check