Why Paul Ryan is Not a Viable Target

Although I really think what you're all trying to do is great and as a resident of Wisconsin I still am flabbergasted by the ousting of Russ Feingold, Paul Ryan is not in a swing district. In fact, Paul Ryan is in the most Republican-leaning district in the state. His district, especially Waukesha county, is the only reason Ron Johnson had enough votes to oust Feingold in the 2010 fall Senate election. Here's some statistics for you to chew on so you don't think I'm bullshitting and I urge you to consider them strongly before sinking too much into this campaign:

http://tinyurl.com/cza42qw

This is the voting data from Ryan's last election. Notice that he got more than twice the number of votes as his opponent. Also note that he began to serve in his seat in 1999 and that this election data is from 2010, a year in which "toss out the incumbents" was the main theme running through Wisconsin politics and partially the reason for Feingold's loss.

http://tinyurl.com/bmoaceb

Now, this is the kicker. Look closely at the results of the Senate race from 2010 that had Russ Feingold up for the re-election he lost. Notice how that many districts are pretty even except Dane County which is home to Madison and leans Democrat. Lastly, look at the statistics from Waukesha County. Once again, the Republican mobilization is massive and this is an established base in the area that is not going away.

tl;dr: Paul Ryan isn't going to lose this election.

EDIT: While I do not disagree with the goal of this potential movement, I merely wish to point out that as politically involved citizen in Wisconsin that has a good deal of inside view into politics in our state, Paul Ryan is not in danger of losing his seat and Reddit should instead find another potential target so as not to waste valuable time or money. I feel just as strongly as anybody about the issues at stake but the reality of the situation is that we must pick our fights if we ever hope to succeed. I would also further suggest forming a cohesive PAC specifically to serve our common interests instead of an existing group in order to make this more than just a hivemind zerging of an election.

Posted Dec 29, 2011, 2:12 AM UTC

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