Three card poker, optimal strategy?

Hope this is the right place for this kind of question.

I was at a casino tonight (friend's birthday) and lost my money playing three card poker, when I got back I started thinking about whether I could have actually come up with a winning system.

Anyway, enough waffle, here's the setup:

There are 3 options for betting and each player and the dealer get 3 cards

  • Pair plus - pays out if you have a pair or higher, amount depends on hand. Pair is 1 to 1, flush 4 to 1, straight 6 to 1, three of a kind 25 to 1 and straight flush 35 to 1.

  • Ante - player bets that his/her hand beats the dealer's hand, the player must first bet once blind and then equal the bet again after viewing his/her hand in order to play. The dealer only "plays" if they have high Queen or better. If they don't "play" then the player gets 1 to 1 on the original bet and his chips back from the second bet. If the player's hand wins they get 1 to 1 on each bet plus a bonus for certain hands: 1 to 1 bonus on straight, 4 to 1 on three of a kind and 5 to 1 on straight flush.

  • Prime (I think) - player bets that his/her hand will be 3 cards of the same colour, pays out 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 if the dealer's hand also has 3 cards of the same colour. Must bet either Pair plus or ante to bet prime.

I did a simple analysis in my head but I don't know if it makes sense, here goes: First I thought that I should always bet the same on the prime since my chance of a hand with 3 cards the same colour is 1/4 (red, red, red or black, black, black) so 3 out of 4 times I'll lose but on the 1 in 4 I'll win back any money I lost on the other 3, plus I can make a bonus once in a while when the dealer happens to get a prime at the same time.

Then I looked at the ante, which is where I find it gets confusing. I assumed that the player always bets, there are 4 outcomes: player wins/dealer wins (equally likely?), dealer doesn't play and so the first bet pays out but the second doesn't, or they tie and neither gain anything. Would I be right in thinking this results in a net gain for the player? Plus they get a bonus for good winning hands.

So would this be a way of "cheating" the system in this game? Simply play ante and prime in every hand? Or is my analysis way off somewhere?

tl;dr is there an optimal strategy to generally win at this game?

Posted Dec 29, 2011, 3:47 AM UTC · edited

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