I believe that GameStop's 5M ATM share offering will continue until the 2nd week of July, here's my reasoning why
I've seen a lot comments from Apes hoping to see the company announce the end of their 5M ATM share offering any day now, so I decided to look into the previous offering for anything that would give me a clue into when the offering might end. I'm a pretty smooth brained ape but I believe I have a possible date for you.
I took a look at both 424B5 filings the company has made this year to see how the 2 offerings were sold, to do this I took the 424B5 filed in April and the 424B5 filed in June and checked the section "Plan of Distribution" to see how these shares were being sold, below I've redlined the differences between the 2 filings:
All the changes in this section relate mostly to start dates and share amounts. However the second paragraph, which outlines how the shares are sold, didn't change at all between the 2 filings:
The language in this paragraph is the same on both filings. Here Gamestop did state limitations on the amount of shares that can be sold in one day and a minimum price that the shares can be sold at. There's no info that I can see as to what those limations are, their limits could be different this time so this is a variable that could affect my estimate. My best guess could be wrong here if some days are subject to restrictions on selling shares if the minimum price is below what the company specified in its instructions to Jeffries.
My conclusion here is that the distribution method is the same for both ATM offerings, so then I took a look at how long it took the first offering to complete.
The announcement for the first share offering was on April 5, and it was completed on April 26.
April 5 - April 26 = 21 calendar days (Excel is great for subtracting dates)
Within those 21 calendar days there were 15 trading days for the offering to complete.
5,000,000 / 3,500,000 = 1.4285 more shares
I took the share amounts and determined that 5M is ~143% more shares than 3.5M, so I applied that to the dates:
21 calendar days * 142.85% = 30 calendar days
or
15 trading days * 142.85% = 21 trading days
If I add 30 calendar days to June 9th it comes to July 9th, if I add 21 trading days to June 9th (excluding July 5th holiday), I still get July 9th.
Assuming the offering is done at the same pace as the last one, my best guess for completion on the 5M ATM share offing will conclude on Friday, July 9th. This date includes the 2 day settlement date so it may actually conclude 2 days earlier but the company will more than likely announce it after hours on or around July 9th.
I'm not making any guesses as to what the share price will do during or after this time, it's just a calculation as to when the ATM offering may end, we could see sideways trading until then or we may see some action from other catalysts.
TL;DR;
Using some simple math I have extrapolated that since there's ~142% more shares in the June offering compared to the April offering, it would then take 142% longer to complete if the plan of distribution of these shares is the same. This led me to July 9th as a possible end date to the current 5M share offering.
If I've many any mistakes, please correct me and I will update. None of this is not financial advice. Always do your own research and don't relay on mine.
Posted Jun 21, 2021, 7:20 PM UTC · edited
Good work but I hope you're wrong, I can't talk for everyone as we don't do that but personally I'd like to see a bit of upward momentum.
Agree
I would too, trust me!
Not only for us apes but for the company, if the share price does happen to make jump this week due to an FTD cycle or the Russel 1000 rebalance then that means more cash for GameStop as well!
I'm not done buying yet tho. Think about what would happen if the price dropped back under $100. the buying pressure would be insane and I'd be selling both kidneys to buy more. let gme trade the lower ranges. let them short it more and see what happens