What would happen if the rebel alliance failed the trench run

Scenario 1 During Luke’s final run he is shot down by Vader and Yavin 4 is destroyed

Scenario 2 Luke’s torpedo misses and gets away like in the original, Yavin 4 is still destroyed alone with the remaining rebels on the planet

Scenario 3 Trench run fails but the rebel forces are able to evacuate before the planet is destroyed

(Bonus) Trench run succeeds but Tarkin evacuates