Source
r/nbatopshot•
MagicKnights

Playoff Moments a Good Deal Right Now?

Market Discussion

Was noticing a few of the superstar players seems to have good deals going on their playoff moments right now (not the challenge rewards, but their standard 12k or 11.5k playoff moments) relative to their S2 15k base moment.

Doesn't make much sense to me why a base 15k would be running for more than a Playoff Set 12k. Anyone got some ideas as to reasons this is happening? Besides just supply/demand?

A few example:

LeBron Playoff $67....LeBron S2 Base 15k $168

Luka Playoff $26....Luka S2 Base 15k $30

Durant has 2 playoffs moments so far $19 & $25....S2 base 15k is $30

Jokic $10....$11

I already scooped all of these so please tell me why I'm dumb lol

Posted Jul 12, 2021, 6:43 PM UTC

3420
Solo_Shot_First•

I personally am waiting for the playoffs to end to buy any. I think most moments in the set will go down after the season, but that’s pure speculation.

21
MagicKnightsOP•

I generally agree with you - I think the market as a whole will see a dip in the offseason.

But I also don't have the greatest self discipline lol, so trying to find some value around the marketplace and this is sort of where I landed. Been trying to grab any playoff moment for $5. Trying to grab stars for under $10. And then these type of anomalies.

Only time will tell if it's dumb or not. lol

11
wjfeng•

I think it’s just overall collector fatigue but I do agree the playoff set as a whole is undervalued esp from a collector score perspective.

The floor is $5/moment = 20 cs + 10 mp bonus - 30 cs / $5 = 6 cs / $1 which is the most efficient way to up your cs if you don’t have a team / set bonus

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ImHalfAwake:warriors: Warriors :triple: :debut:•

Whoa damn I didn't think of this way, so is the general consensus for value around 6cs / $1 spend?

7
wjfeng•

A cheap 40k+ cc common will also be 6 pts per $ (12 cs + 6 mp bonus / $3) but I’d rather have a capped mint moment from the playoffs than a random one from a random player during the regular season.

Think it’ll hold its value at least somewhat and worst case can be used as a trade ticket

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ImHalfAwake:warriors: Warriors :triple: :debut:•

Thats interesting, yea I guess I never thought about using it as a trade ticket if it loses value, better off burning them rather than selling for loss.

0
Taco_elite•

If you can snag playoff moments at $4 it's almost the best CS value point/dollar spent. The best is still $2 commons. $2/12 CS vs $4/20 CS

3
brand0nlim•

The LBJ moment seems like a pretty good deal to me - though I like the 15k 3-pointer better as a moment the backboard alley-oop is undeniably great

11
MagicKnightsOP•

Yeah, the LeBron playoff moment is what started me onto this. That one just feels so mispriced. That no-look three is a great moment too though. Love it.

7
RobbedOddUs•

LeBron went out in the first round and it’s a playoff specific set. I think that definitely lowers the value.

3
Darkcryptomoon:thunder: Thunder•

I think long term people just prefer the base moments over a playoff moment (especially if their team wasn't in the playoffs/exited early).

9
Phantama•

hope you are wrong.. but yes. they did make a ton of playoff moments. that said a playoff game should have more value then a regular season game

8
DeportAllDreamers•

There won’t be a dip this off season. Rare moments are conference finals drops and then there is still the legendary drop for the finals. Legendary will cost more collector points than rare and will incentivize more spending in the market. If we see a continuation of the bear market it won’t be until August... and by then season 3 and series 3 will be ready to be released. There’s still the run it back packs to release during the off-season as well. Majority of people being bearish makes me bullish

9
Snoo_26884•

I'm also approaching this from stock market experience, but I noticed about a month ago that the common packs weren't selling out. There's no rush to be on time for them anymore. They expire every time. They started making exclusive pack for new collectors, but it doesn't seem to have helped.

Interest started fading with the introduction of collector score requirements. They were really lofty at first, and still pretty crazy. That's the only reason I could see interest falling off right when playoffs were starting. People realized you need to spend thousands to qualify for any of the great rare or legendary packs.

Look at "previous challenges" and they show you the participation has leveled or falling off. With the more expensive packs, participation is abysmally low.

Participation in Challenges

Playoffs = ~2500 no clear trend

Holo Icon 7 = 61 completions
Holo Icon 8 = 53
Holo Icon 9 = 33

Metallic 31 = 190
Metallic 30 = 344
Metallic 29 = 192
Metallic 28 =162
Metallic 27 = 180
Metallic 26 = 210
Metallic 25 = 210

There are about 370k active collectors, who did the bare minimum to qualify for the 100pt collector score necessary for the upcoming "And Then There Were Four" pack. This means <1% of those people went for the playoff challenges.

It can be reasonably assumed that people completing Holo Icon challenges have the money to complete the Metallics, and most probably did so. So in reality we're seeing ~200 collectors rich enough to get all the great cards. You've got to ask yourself how many of these people are directly associated with the NBA, Topshot and Dapper.

This shows me participation by serious investors is still very very low. It could mean we're still early in the runway up, or participation will continue to fall off. I have more moments than any of the NBA players they advertise, so what does that say?

3
bure10DFS•

There is always a dip after a big CS chase and pack drop. It wont happen after the rare but for sure after the finals legendary. It will be compounded by the off season when sports collectible markets generally go down.

There was a dip after the holo pack drop last month because of this very same sell off. Even though there was still a playoff rare and legendary there was a dip.

Its the same scenario for the playoff rare and legendary compared to the MGLE and holo packs.

1
bullswhitesoxfan•

I had to pick up the Durant game 7 shot for $23. It’s such an amazing moment, I can’t understand why it is so cheap.

5
france-is_bacon•

Love both of Kawhi’s posters and feel their value is insanely low with the 12k at around $11-13 and the challenge of around 2400 mint at $55 or so

3
afriend8888•

ye been collecting these kawhi posters sad to see the value drop, didn't help that he got injured too.. but prob big bounce back season next year for klaw! became such a big fan of him during the toronto run

2
hoopsfan888•

The only thing I can think of is that playoff moments only have real value if the team wins the championship that year. If there's an amazing game winner that helped the team win that game/series then eventually the team win the title, it'll have more value. But from my point of view, it's hard to get excited about LBJ with a first round exit.

Same goes for Durant and that 2 pointer that tied the game. If they had won the game then that would have far more value. But a shot that tied the game and led to their eventual loss doesn't have much value in my mind. Still an amazing shot but they still lost.

So when Milwaukee or Phoenix eventually wins, I feel like their moments would carry a lot of value for their fans especially. The Valley Oop moment should become an iconic moment if Phoenix wins it all.

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