Source
r/AMD_Stock•
UmbertoUnity

"It's time to sell"

ZFG

I've been waiting quite some time to post this r/AMD_Stock classic (link below) as a way to celebrate AMD finally closing above $100. When people deride this sub and call it an echo chamber, remember that we were the ones encouraging people to hold through this sort of crap. In spite of it's flaws, this sub is still the most comprehensive investment community for information and discussion about AMD!

https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/8qvedz/its_time_to_sell/

Posted Jul 29, 2021, 8:01 PM UTC

4946
Freebyrd26•

​

Since his post on June 13, 2018

22
Gabe_gaben•

Damn I remember the stock went to some 30ish or something soon after Q2 2018. Sold at 18,4$ back then but bought again at fall for 17$ :D good ol' times... Still waiting for more than just 100$. With Genoa and possible first MCM GPU in the world it feels like within few years even 200$ is not something out of realms of possibility. "Just" need to seriously threat Nvidia.

7
UmbertoUnityOP•

I actually noticed your comment in that old thread and found it interesting how you said you'd be out in 2019 or 2020. Like you, I keep reevaluating my exit timeframe as the competitive landscape continues to improve in AMD's favor. I agree, $200 does not seem out of the realm of possibility now.

6
Gabe_gaben•

Wow I didn't notice :) Well from time perspective everything went just as expected, Intel doesn't have any meaningful 10nm capacity/yields and RDNA2 is stronger then I would think at the time AMD can pull from their Radeon Group.

As Intel can't keep up I reevaluated. Never thought about 100$ on AMD. I was going for 40$ maximum back then.

Back then I was looking for cycled period of recession. And as we know it did happen but FED and all central banks immediately pump the market. It's scary to think they would not do that...

3
UmbertoUnityOP•

Yeah, your post back then was thorough and as spot on as I feel like someone could be way back then. It's just interesting to see how our targets have evolved over time! I tell you what though, despite my target being $40 back then too it's amazing how quickly I became impatient for a number like $100!

3
Cyborg-Chimp•

I was fully expecting a tmouser flashback NGL

16
UmbertoUnityOP•

That would definitely have been fitting, but tmouser was more about consistency over time.

7
theflyingredditor•

Oh wow I wasn't in AMD then so did not know about this, this aged well 🤣

10
UmbertoUnityOP•

The comments are comedy gold.

9
OmegaMordred•

I always like to keep things simple (see my napkin math posts)

Let me tell you why he is wrong (this is about a general vision, NOT exact numbers)

  • 70% is owned by institutions, this leaves 400Mshares for all others
  • 300M shares traded the last 2 days, so 75% of that float switched hands
  • you can see 'dumps' at openings of around 5M, the shorts want to drive SP down so they dump and rebuy normally. Only this time it didnt fully work because of the inlux of new bulls.
  • every time huge volumes trades like this, the stock sets a new 'absolute' floor. AMD used to trade always above certain levels (just like a ceiling, hard ceilings were $10 and $100 for example). You can bet that the last 2 days changed the floor by at least $10 if not more. So where we could still see $75 (and occasionally lower when nasdaq really lowers a hell of a lot) we will now see $85 (with nasdaq above +/- 12K)
  • now stay with me for a really rough idea, everytime the shorts or bears try to lower, they sell high and buy back in lower (just a few delta$) this creates harder ceilings as they always influence others to sell shares, so less are being held at a higher level. Thats the great thing about longs, they actually dont give a f* about the SP because they can sit out any possible outcome, bears can't do that, they need to decide sooner or later. Now when they sell and buy back in at days like these, bulls already snatched their shares so their averages go up and they end with less and less shares. Now when you see such influxes of huge volumes, chances only grow that people will hold on to their newly bought shares because their average prices are already higher. Bears won't be able to influence this by a normal drop so they will try to run it even lower, it'll lower their share amount again over and over. 300M traded hands, so this is way above your average buyer and seller. This is somewhat reflected by the delta between AMD and INTC, you can see bears rather winning at INTC and seeing them slowly cave in at AMD. The spread has grown from 10, 20,30 to even 50 (this is a comparison, don't come waving with market cap etc, thats not the issue here!) .
  • I'm not saying we stay above $100, thats not the point here. The point is they will have a very hard time to rebuild that wall at $100, it took almost 40Mtrades to get through that, but it fell smoothly and fast. Compare this to slow volume days, like a few weeks, and the wall doesn't even gets scratched (with same 300M traded but spread over more days). They milked that $100 meme like pro's. But this is over, maybe it comes back at $150 or $200, time will tell.
  • this is about shares, NOT options where you are theta bound and it only gets multiplied of complexity and speed.
9
UmbertoUnityOP•

Just to be clear, I'm not advocating people sell right now. I linked to an old post as a way of celebrating reaching the $100 milestone. Unless you are responding to why Dekachin3 was wrong way back in 2018!

1
OmegaMordred•

Yes exactly, I thought that was clear. (he= the old poster, not you).

1
UmbertoUnityOP•

My mistake. I always get overly concerned that things are being misinterpreted on Reddit. Thanks for the well thought out reply!

1
OmegaMordred•

It's easy to misinterpret online, you don't hear it or see the way its supposed to come across.

1
[deleted]•

[deleted]

6
gnocchicotti•

Tbf "buy at 10, sell at 13" gang made a killing for a while with all that volatility.

The trick is knowing when to swing trade, and when to hold because there is about to be a breakout.

And no one knows that.

6
UmbertoUnityOP•

I've got nothing against traders, just the ones who are assholes!

3
HippoLover85•

Lol, I still remember that thread. So many people were doing that and got left behind. Don't feel bad for them at all.

5
UmbertoUnityOP•

I planned on posting that just because I always found it funny, but I had forgotten that he specifically called the sub stupid for thinking that it might go to $100 lol.

5
[deleted]•

[deleted]

3
UmbertoUnityOP•

May 2017 to present is the relevant timeframe for me

He actually said that with a straight face. Not April, not June, but May!

And you know what, I wouldn't even be using the post to celebrate if he didn't express such extreme disdain for the sub.

1
Gahvynn•

My biggest regret of my investing “career” was having over 4000 shares at under $10, selling covered calls, getting assigned around the $20 mark and then when I did buy back in I diversified more than half that money away. GG to anyone who actually held it all, I’m still in it for the next few years at least before I diversify anymore.

5
geomaster•

this is always the concern for covered call strategy everyone tries to convince me to do. What happens if there's a gap up? which happens all the time with AMD. it trades sideways and then suddenly gaps up or gaps down in a week(s) period.

or even if that didnt happen, what do you do when you have your massively appreciated shares called away? you get hit with a massive tax event (instead of being able to control the timing of when you sell)

2
Gahvynn•

I don’t think covered calls are magic, but they did help me actually make money on AMD during the time where it went sideways for months (or a year) at a time. Sold calls, bought more shares, when I was at risk for assignment I almost always rolled further out and OTM. That said I never do CC on earnings weeks and hold through earnings nor during product reveal weeks.

1
freddyt55555•

Thanks for the lulz. LMAO!

3
acayaba•

Damn I wish I had bought AMD at $10 3y ago.

3
lethal3185•

I don't have a position. But I would say that I personally wouldn't sell. AMD is crushing Intel every single time. There's room for more growth IMO. I follow both companies pretty closely since I'm a PC enthusiast.

3
UmbertoUnityOP•

It's always interesting to hear from someone who doesn't have a horse in the race (at least from a shares standpoint). Thanks for sharing your perspective.

2
Lekz•

The good ol' days lmao

2
psi-storm•

Yeah, these cyrpto morons that 20x their money since then (if they sold before the current drop).

2
Thunderbird2k•

It is not time to sell, but rather convert to Xilinx at the low conversion ratio to get some free extra shares. Or at least something to consider for folks who are long like me.

2
EverythingIsNorminal•

Amen, it's been a good two weeks. They have attracted a lot more bag holders. When this baby crashes there's going to be so much whining on this sub, it's going to be glorious. I guess people have forgotten the last year. I'm pulling for AMD too, so everybody just know that, but I'm not autistic.

P.s. no offense, none of you are Peter Lynch and this isn't Dunkin Donuts.

u/seattlestocker abandoned that reddit account a year later

2
UmbertoUnityOP•

It's hilarious how they commended each other on making the [obviously] "correct" decision.

2
EverythingIsNorminal•

Yep!

I also like the Tesla comments in that thread.

anyone who cites TSLA for anything has already lost the argument. It is well known that TSLA is an irrational stock that doesn't follow the normal rules of financial markets thanks to elon musk's cult of personality and the idiotic Star Citizen backers who comprise the bulk of TSLA investors.

Two years later TSLA went 10x and anyone holding it has been sitting pretty ever since.

High quality calls all around.

2
[deleted]•

[deleted]

1
Mundus6•

I,ve seen this movie before. I wanted to sell when the stock hit 40. Which was 100% gain for me. And i actually sold half. Which i deeply regret. Sure I've bought more shares since. But if i never sold those shares i would have made more money.

1
AJ_SH_7117•

AMD is computing super power like google in search. If you sell now, you will kick yourself when it reach 1000 in five years.

1
UmbertoUnityOP•

Read the actual post! (not just the title)

1
geomaster•

that would be nutz if they hit 1000!

1
NewTsahi1984•

Amazon down 6% post

Tomorrow we may have a market dip

-3
UmbertoUnityOP•

I think a few of you are missing the point of this post.

5
Lekz•

No kidding lol

3
NewTsahi1984•

I red the post, no crime using deeps.

0
JustStockIt•

To be an echo chamber?

-4
UmbertoUnityOP•

To celebrate $100 and our success in fighting back against continuous FUD.

4
JustStockIt•

Rejecting anything just because it's negative is stupid.

1