NBA LAYER CAKE: ranking all the teams, starting with the bottom tier
At this point in the offseason, it's still too hard to come up with a clear and confident differentiation between teams. It may be easier to lump them together in "tiers" instead. Over the next week, we'll try to sort out those layers.
But since that's still an inexact and sloppy science, we'll equate it less like a perfect layer cake and more like Rachel Green's trifle from Friends. It's muddled, it's messy, but it's something we're going to try and dig through anyway.
With that in mind, let's start at the bottom.
######TIER 6: THE LADY FINGERS/CROSSED FINGERS
Rachel put lady finger cookies on the bottom of her trifle, which is appropriate in the NBA landscape where being very bad can sometimes be very good. Here are the teams that will rack up the most lottery balls and hope to get lucky on draft night.
(26) DETROIT PISTONS
last year: There's a lot of good vibes in Detroit right now, but no one said a rebuild would happen overnight. The Pistons have a long way to go based on last season, when they finished 20-52 and ranked in the bottom 5 in terms of SRS (strength-adjusted power rankings) and bottom 5 in offense. On the positive end, their point differential (-4.5 per game) was better than other cellar dwellers.
losses: It feels like a lifetime ago, but the Pistons entered last season with Blake Griffin (who played 20 games for them) and Derrick Rose (who played 15.) Lower-profile defections will matter more. Delon Wright, Wayne Ellington, and Mason Plumlee combined to start 118 games last year. Ellington was their best shooter (hitting 42% of his threes on 6 attempts a game), and Plumlee was an underrated ball mover for the position (3.6 assists per game.)
gains: # 1 pick Cade Cunningham will be the new franchise player, and should have more of an immediate impact that most 19 year olds. His shot is developed -- his body is developed -- and he has a maturity and leadership quality well beyond his years. He's the betting favorite for Rookie of the Year for good reason; he has the talent and the opportunity here to average near 20-5-5. Veteran PF/C Kelly Olynyk also has scoring upside; he averaged 19 points when he had the greenlight in Houston last year.
projected record: You have to like the raw foundation here -- not just with Cunningham but also with big wings Jerami Grant and Saddiq Bey. Sophomore Isaiah Stewart may also have a breakout season. That said, fellow sophomore Killian Hayes may be the key to the season. Statistically he was awful last season (especially early on), and it's hard to imagine him becoming a league-average player by year two. Playing him 25-30 minutes a night may be the right way to develop him long term, but it may hinder the team from approaching .500 this year. And more than anything, that'll be the question for coach Dwane Casey. As he enters Year 4 in Detroit, how patient can he afford to be? I'd be bullish on the future, but realistically we expect some growing pains and a record of about 34-48. That's progress, but it still may not be good enough to keep Casey off the hot seat.
(27) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
last year: The Cleveland Cavaliers had a similar record to Detroit (22-50), but their advanced stats look uglier. Their point differential was -8.5 per game, and they ranked bottom 3 in SRS. For a team that's built around two little scorers in Collin Sexton (24.3 PPG) and Darius Garland (17.4 PPG), they somehow managed to finish bottom 3 in offense and bottom 3 in three pointers.
losses: Last year's team had 25 games with Andre Drummond and 29 games with Taurean Prince, neither of whom should be seen as significant losses.
gains: Like Detroit, the splashiest addition for the Cavs will be their top pick Evan Mobley. He's arguably the most talented player in the rookie class, with incredible fluidity on defense and underrated ball skills on offense. Of course, we have to be reasonable about Mobley's ability to impact winning right now. Even his optimistic comps like Anthony Davis and Chris Bosh weren't dominant as rookies (averaging 13-8 and 12-7 respectively.) Mobley will also have some duplication next to center Jarrett Allen. Veteran PG Ricky Rubio should be an easier fit as a rotational player; his size and passing should be able to mesh with either Garland or Sexton. A healthy Kevin Love would also be a positive in theory (after 25 games last year) although he's a prime buy-out candidate.
projected record: As currently constructed, the Cavs are an oddly built team. Their best players are either small guards or bigs, with not much in between. They'll need SF Isaac Okoro to take a leap offensively to help bridge that gap, because neither rookie-Okoro (29% from 3) nor Cedi Osman (31%) were effective spacers. We'll pencil them in for some natural improvement and a 28-54 record, but it's hard to imagine a significant spike without balancing their roster.
(28) ORLANDO MAGIC
last year: After two straight playoff berths, the 2020-21 Magic had some faint hopes of a return. But once they realized it wasn't going to happen, they tanked harder and faster than any team. They traded away Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier and plummeted down the standings. When it was all said and done, they finished 21-51 with an ugly -9.3 point differential. They finished bottom 2 in SRS, bottom 2 in offense, and surprisingly even bottom 5 in defense.
losses: Most of the Magic's significant losses (Vucevic, Fournier) happened in midseason, but they'll certainly be felt over the course of a full year. Losing veteran Steve Clifford as a coach may take some adjustment as well. While Clifford's teams never had incredible upside, they usually played hard.
gains: This will be a newlook roster on several levels. As mentioned, they already remade the team in midseason, bringing in new faces like Wendell Carter Jr., R.J. Hampton, and older face Gary Harris. The draft will also be a game changer for them, with # 5 pick Jalen Suggs (Gonzaga) and # 8 pick Franz Wagner (Michigan.) Both feature all-around games that should translate well sooner than later.
projected record: While they're not "new" additions, the Magic should see some considerable internal growth as well. Markelle Fultz and Jon Isaac will return from injury, and rising sophomores Cole Anthony and Chuma Okeke should take a step up. The hardest job rookie coach Jamahl Mosley may have will be determining the pecking order of those youngsters, especially at the PG spot. Fultz and Anthony like the ball in their hands, but may be overshadowed by the fancy new toy in Suggs. Overall, young PG play isn't usually a winning formula regardless. 26-56 sounds reasonable for a young team like this. It's also notable that Jamahl Mosley is the only first-year coach on our entire list, which should give him the job security and freedom to rack up as many losses as he wants.
(29) HOUSTON ROCKETS
last year: After suffering in James Harden purgatory for the first weeks of the season, the Rockets finally embraced the darkness and plunged to the depths of the ocean themselves. They actually finished with the worst overall record (17-55), logging bottom 4 numbers in all major categories: point differential (-7.9), SRS, offensive rating, defensive rating, etc.
losses: There shouldn't be any significant losses from last year considering James Harden only played 8 games for the Rockets anyway. P.J. Tucker had played 32 games, but wasn't actually good for the team. In fact, the biggest loss may be the 27 games they got from Kelly Olynyk, who flashed some scoring punch as he averaged 19.0 PPG during the late season slide.
gains: Again, the biggest roster additions will come through the draft. # 2 pick Jalen Green looks like he has springs in his shoes. For an athletic scorer, he looked more advanced and efficient than expected in the G-League as well. Speaking of efficiency, rookie center Alperen Sengun looked as effective as you can possibly expect for a teenager in Europe as well. There's a chance that both could be better-than-average players as rookies, which is high praise. The team also signed a veteran in Daniel Theis. On paper, that doesn't make a lot of sense for a young team, but perhaps GM Rafael Stone thinks Theis' ability to stretch the court will help Jalen Green shine.
projected record: It'll be interesting to see how coach Stephen Silas works in the rookies. It may be hard for Sengun to take the reins down low considering Christian Wood may be the best player on the roster right now. And it may be hard for Jalen Green to average 20 PPG if Kevin Porter Jr. snatches the ball out of his hands. But when push comes to shove, I think Silas and the front office have the same priority here. They're going to develop the kids and rack up the losses along the way, with a projected 24-58 record. The Rockets have enough talent to do better if they wanted to, but playing in the Western Conference won't make it easy for them.
(30) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
last year: The rebuilding Oklahoma City Thunder looked surprisingly frisky early last year, jumping out to a solid 10-12 start. The wheels went off from there (by design.) Their 22-50 record was actually better than it should have been given the advanced stats. They finished dead last in point differential (-10.6), dead last in offense, and dead last in SRS.
losses: In the U.S., most nightclubs are 21 and over. In O.K.C., it's basically 21 and under. Veterans are not welcome here. Al Horford played 28 games and George Hill played 14 games before their banishment. In terms of on-court impact, losing young Moses Brown (43 games, 8.6 PPG, 8.9 PPG) may be the most notable.
gains: The Thunder took on veteran Derrick Favors in a salary dump, but it's doubtful the team will utilize him in a significant way. They should be featuring the kids instead, highlighted by # 6 pick Josh Giddey (Australia) and to a lesser degree fellow rookies Tre Mann (Florida) and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (Villanova).
projected record: There's no doubt about it: the Oklahoma City Thunder have the worst roster in the NBA (in the short term.) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (23.7 PPG) has become a genuine All-Star threat and Lu Dort has become a genuine starter, but Sam Presti isn't going to want them to do too much this year. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if doctors diagnose Presti with Munchausen by proxy syndrome given how many injuries he'll fake this year. Presti and coach Mark Daigneault presumably learned their lesson last year when those early wins "hurt" their lottery odds, so I expect them to commit to the tank earlier and guarantee one of the top 5 spots with a league-worst 22-60 record.
Posted Aug 7, 2021, 2:23 PM UTC · edited