32 Teams, 32 Weeks: An analysis for /r/NFL - Week 2: Atlanta Falcons

32 Team Analysis

Week 2: Atlanta Falcons

Division: NFC South

Record: 10-6 (3-3 Div.) #5 Seed NFC

PF: 402

PA: 350

Net: 52

UFAs

• QB – Chris Redman

• RB – Jason Snelling

• FB – Mike Cox

• WR – Harry Douglas

• WR – Eric Weems

• OG – Kirk Chambers

• C – Todd McClure

• DL – John Abraham

• LB – Kroy Biermann

• LB – Curtis Lofton

• LB – Mike Peterson

• CB – Brent Grimes

• CB – Kevin Hayden

• FS – Thomas DeCoud

• FS – James Sanders

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Analysis

Highs:

For all his criticism and speculation of impending uselessness, Michael Turner produced his second best rushing season, by most standards. Producing 4.5 YPC on 300+ (2nd most in the league) attempts is impressive to say the least. He had the 7th most yards rushing and was tied for 6th in rushing TDs. In an optimistic context, he showed more utility in the passing game than he has in the past, catching 17 receptions for 168 yards. He did slow down as the year went on so it would be a good idea for them to cut back on his carries, but he clearly still has the ability, when he’s fresh, to do some damage. Hopefully Turner will be able to continue producing for a couple of years and get a cushy backup role with his next contract, he's earned it.

Matt Ryan, despite the negativity after the playoff loss, actually had a pretty good year as well. When you compare his stats to those of Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning at his age, he looks on pace to become an elite QB in the next 5 years. Obviously that would require him to continue developing, but history gives Falcons fans reason for optimism. His development is likely to result in the Falcons finally adjusting towards a more pass oriented offense.

A big part of that shift is having the talent at WR to pull it off. They now have one of the most dynamic receiving duos in the NFL, as well as a solid, if aging, TE. Regardless of how you feel about their draft strategy, and I’ll get to that later, the risk paid off in terms of a potentially elite WR of the next decade. Julio Jones has the height, speed, and vertical to absolutely terrify opposing secondaries. He has the ability to break a huge play on any down, giving the Falcons the ability to score quickly when necessary.

Lows:

This might not really belong in the “lows” category, as he still put up a lot of receptions, yards, and TDs, but Roddy White had a bit of an off year . He had the most drops in the league with 15 and the most targets not caught with 80. That isn’t entirely unexpected however because he saw the most targets of any WR with 180. Percentage-wise he had 8.3% for drops and 57% receptions on targets, neither of which is very good for an elite receiver. In terms of top level WRs he was average in YAC with 3.6 and below average on YPR with 13.0.

No one on the OL was a stand out and both of the players who started at LT this year were miserable. If Ryan is going to take another step forward, he has to stay safe. Even though he wasn’t sacked a great deal, he was hit 84 times. That suggests he was effective at getting the ball away quickly but wasn’t being given enough time to make deep throws effectively, one of his common criticisms. They have to hope that those players develop significantly in the offseason, or address it through drafting or FA, where they will have many other pressing concerns.

Free Agency/Draft Concerns:

This is where the real trouble starts for the Falcons. They only have 33 current roster players accounted for and they will only have approximately $25 million left to sign 20 more. They also only have 5 draft picks to use on filling those roles, with no first round pick.

Starters Brent Grimes, Curtis Lofton, Thomas DeCoud, Todd McClure, and John Abraham are all up for FA. Losing any of them would hurt the team, but given their monetary limitations and the large contracts these players will be expecting, it’s unlikely they will be able to keep more than two or three.

Grimes, in particular, could be difficult to hang on to. There is a premium on corners of his caliber and many teams with more cap room to flex will be trying to lure him away. He seems likely to go wherever he gets the best deal.

Lofton is the most crucial free agent to resign. A middle linebacker who can be trusted to control the center of the field, tackle well, and not be easily fooled is one of the best things any 4-3 defense can have, and he is the prototype. The only reason they might end up letting him go is if they intend to switch to 3-4 in the near future, as has been rumored at times.

DeCoud won’t require a huge pay increase to sign and I don’t think other teams are going to be throwing huge contracts his direction either. Despite his high tackles and 4 interceptions, he was often a liability, due to poor decision making.

Todd McClure might be the most reliable player on their OL and despite his age they will likely try to hang on to him for at least one more year until some of the needs elsewhere on the line have been addressed.

John Abraham has been a valuable asset to the Falcons for the past six seasons. With the cost of keeping other big name players however, his high cost, mixed with age and growing injury concerns, may result in him being the odd man out and looking for a new home.

Final Thoughts:

It’s certainly not all gloom and doom in Atlanta. Even if they lose a couple of defensive starters, they still have some serious talent and Mike Nolan has a solid resume as a DC. They also have the most important thing a team can have: a capable and improving QB. With Dirk Koetter as the new OC, vertical passing will likely increase and the offense could generally be more explosive. The NFC South will be a powder keg for next few years, likely with a lot of changes in the standings from year to year, but the Falcons have what it takes to win some of those fights and could come out as the undisputed leader of the division if their QB can take them there.

Did I make any mistakes? Let me know.

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Previous Teams

Week 1: Baltimore Ravens

Upcoming Teams (subject to change)

Week 3: Dallas Cowboys

Week 4: San Diego Chargers

Week 5: Cincinnati Bengals

Week 6: Green Bay Packers