[OC] THE BEST BET SERIES: predicting the “Defensive Player of the Year”
In this series, we're going to take a look at some "futures" bets online to gauge the best bets for different awards.
Now, these aren't pure predictions as much as indications of value. Someone may be the most likely pick to win MVP at 5:1, but if another player has nearly as good of a chance and is listed at 50:1, that longshot is the better "bet."
We're going to go through a laundry list of candidates, vetting them all, before indicating our best bet in each category. Today we'll move to "Defensive Player of the Year."
######STUDYING THE TRENDS
There's no doubt that "Defensive Player of the Year" -- and defense in general -- is among the hardest awards for voters to litigate. In the past, media members were heavily influenced by counting stats like steals and blocks. Lately, they've gotten smarter and started to use more advanced stats -- but even modern advanced stats aren't terribly reliable for individual defense. The "eye test?" There's a limitation there, too. Even professional basketball writers don't have the training to study film and understand the nuances of defensive assignments and schemes.
When voters aren't really sure how to vote in a vacuum, a groupthink tends to emerge. There's not as much "voter fatigue" in this category as voter reinforcement. Dikembe Mutombo won the trophy 4 times. Ben Wallace won 4 times. Dwight Howard won it 3 times. Rudy Gobert won it 3 out of the last 4 years. That's not to say they didn't deserve it, but rather that it's harder to change the established narrative in this category than others.
If a change does occur, it's often the result of a coordinated campaign. Players who want to win defensive trophies sometimes have to actively make it a storyline. Back in 2016-17, Draymond Green made the rounds talking about how much he wanted to win the award during the first months of the season. It became a point of emphasis throughout that year. That season, he won his first and only DPOY award. A few years earlier, Doc Rivers acted as a spokesperson in a public campaign to award DeAndre Jordan. Jordan didn't win, but he did finish 3rd.
Of course, even Karl Rove or James Carville can't mount a successful campaign if a candidate isn't a viable contender. Or if their team isn't a viable contender. If we look back at the previous winners, we can also see that correlation. Because individual defense is so murky, team defense becomes crucial for candidates. Consider the defensive rank of the last 10 winners:
2011-12: Tyson Chandler (NYK): 5th in team defense
2012-13: Marc Gasol (MEM): 2nd in team defense
2013-14: Joakim Noah (CHI): 2nd in team defense
2014-15: Kawhi Leonard (SA): 2nd in team defense
2015-16: Kawhi Leonard (SA): 1st in team defense
2016-17: Draymond Green (GS): 2nd in team defense
2017-18: Rudy Gobert (UTA): 2nd in team defense
2018-19: Rudy Gobert (UTA): 2nd in team defense
2019-20: Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): 1st in team defense
2020-21: Rudy Gobert (UTA): 4th in team defense
As we look toward potential winners, we should narrow our search to players on teams that should have a top 5 (or at least top 10) defensive rating overall.
######ESTABLISHED CANDIDATES
If you go on a site like bovada, you can bet on any number of candidates. Heck, you can even bet on Karl-Anthony Towns (+6000) if you want.
But in terms of the betting favorites, the heavy hitters are the ones who have either won the trophy or been top contenders in the past. Obviously, that starts with Rudy Gobert (+350 odds). And while Gobert is one of the heavy favorites, you can argue that he's still a value play. +350 (meaning a $100 bet will make you $350 profit) translates to a 22% chance of winning. Given the fact that Gobert has won 3 of the last 4 (75%, for those slow at math), he's a viable pick at that number.
With Gobert, it's not so much a question of "what's the path for him to win?" as much of "what's the path for him not to win?" How can we vote for anyone else? He's hugely impactful. He's in his prime (29 years old). He's durable. He's nearly unbeatable for this trophy.
If there's any concern with Gobert's candidacy, it's the chance of a team letdown. The Jazz had the # 1 seed last year, so even slipping down to # 3 or # 4 may feel like a disappointment. He'll also need them to keep up their defensive rating. The only time in the recent past that he lost DPOY was the same year that the Jazz slipped out of the top 10 in defensive rating. I'd still suggest he's the worthy favorite (with far more than a 22% chance), but there's some bit of an opening here to defeat him.
In fact, we should highlight the two candidates that did beat him in voting recently. 2019-20 winner Giannis Antetokounmpo (+900) is still in play. He's riding a high after the title, both in terms of his basketball reputation and his Q rating with the public. We've seen examples of championship success carrying over into the next regular season as well. Kawhi Leonard won the Finals MVP in 2014; the next season, he won DPOY. Tyson Chandler helped Dallas win the title in 2011; the next season, he won DPOY.
Anthony Davis (the third biggest favorite at +700) didn't have much of a chance to springboard off his title success, as he wasn't at 100% for most of the year. The year prior, he had been a major candidate and even finished 2nd (ahead of Gobert.) He had been as high as # 3 previously as well. Davis should be right back in the mix again given his ability to get 1.5+ steals and 1.5+ blocks per game -- with a huge market team no less. Davis has a puncher's chance to win, but I'd a little concerned about the lack of narrative. The Lakers already had the # 1 defense last year (despite AD missing time), and may slip in the rankings after losing perimeter defenders like Alex Caruso and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
If we're listing the other top contenders, we'd have to mention Sixers' stars Ben Simmons (+350) and Joel Embiid (+1000). They've both been runners-up before. Simmons finished 2nd last season, and Embiid finished 2nd in 2017-18. I'd be concerned about a vote split here, although maybe there will be enough votes to go around. The Sixers have the personnel and the coaching scheme (with Doc Rivers and DC Dan Burke) to grab the # 1 defense this year after finishing # 2 overall last year. Presuming Ben Simmons sticks around, of course.
######DARK HORSE CONTENDERS
Of the players with longer odds on bovada, Paul George (+3000) stands out as a potential value play. George has been one of the better defenders in the NBA over the last decade, placing in the top 10 in DPOY voting in four separate years. George's finishes do demonstrate the value of the "narrative" though. After finishing top 4 in 2017-18 and top 3 in 2018-19, he didn't even crack a ballot the last two seasons with the Clippers. Presumably, being in Kawhi Leonard's shadow killed any storyline he had.
This year, Punxsutawney Paul won't have to worry about a shadow anymore, as he'll have a clear lane to be the signature star for the Clippers. If he can help keep them in the playoffs and keep their top 10 defensive rating, he may emerge as a candidate for the award.
Theoretically, I can see the Boston media drumming up support for a Marcus Smart (+4000) campaign run as well. The Celtics only finished # 14 in defensive rating last year, but I'd expect that to improve. They were in the top 10 in each of the three seasons prior, and their paint defense should be better with Al Horford and more time for Robert Williams. New coach Ime Udoka also has a defensive background. If the Celtics can vault back into the top 5 for defense, Smart should be the "face" of that operation.
The Miami Heat also have a good chance to finish in the top 5 for defense, but they're going to have more of shared credit. Bam Adebayo (+1400), Jimmy Butler (+3500), and P.J. Tucker (+10000) are all on the bovada board, and Kyle Lowry isn't too shabby himself.
To be honest, every player in this tier is more of a candidate for the All-Defense team than the actual "Defensive Player of the Year." I'd say the same about other elite defenders like Jrue Holiday (+1400) and Myles Turner (+1200). Actually winning the DPOY is a high bar, and it's especially hard leap when we have established winners in the field.
######AT LONG LAST, THE OFFICIAL PICK IS...
There's no doubt that Rudy Gobert is the "most likely" winner of this award, but he's not the best bet based on our criteria. If I'm doing a season-long wager, I'd like someone with more of a payout.
And based on that, I'd eye Draymond Green at +1600 odds (a $100 bet would pay $1600 profit.)
Green should benefit from a few areas of emphasis for us. I nearly picked Rudy Gobert or Paul George (as a longshot), partly because they're both the CLEAR lead dog on their teams defensively. In a lot of other cases, the great defensive teams have multiple great defenders. In Milwaukee, you can argue that Jrue Holiday is even better than Giannis (defensively.) In Philadelphia, you can quibble about the impact of Joel Embiid vs. Ben Simmons, and maybe even argue that Matisse Thybulle (+1600 odds) is better than either one. Miami has a boatload of big names themselves. With Golden State, there's no debate. Draymond Green is their best defender, and he's their key voice on that end. Klay Thompson was great individually as well, but it's hard to imagine him being lights out on that end as he rounds into form. All in all, Green will earn the lion's share of the credit for the Warriors defense.
Meanwhile, that Warriors' defense was quietly pretty good last season. In fact, they ranked # 5 in terms of overall defensive rating according to basketball-reference. If we presume Klay Thompson comes back at even 80% of his former self, then that defense may be even better this year. They've also added some additional wing depth in the form of Otto Porter Jr. and Andre Iguodala. Porter in particular may be an underrated addition, presuming he can stay healthy himself. He's a solid 3+D guy who can guard 3s or 4s; in a way, he can be a poor man's version of what Harrison Barnes used to do for the team. This team can potentially roll out the "Death Lineup" more often.
That nostalgia could play a major role in this DPOY campaign. If the Warriors start to resemble the "old" Warriors again, it'll be a feel-good story that should earn attention and accolades. Draymond Green could be front and center of that. He looked svelte and effective in the Olympics and may carry that momentum into the season. If he's playing well and the team's playing well (top 4 in the West), then reporters will make it a significant storyline. Green is so good with the media that sports networks are even courting him to join them. I'm sure they'd be happy to reward their future co-worker if he deserves it. He's already won once before, and that second DPOY trophy would help cement his legacy as one of the greatest defenders of his generation and arguably one of the greatest of all time.
Again, Draymond Green winning Defensive Player of the Year isn't the MOST likely outcome, but it's a good value bet at the current odds. That +1600 translates to a 5.9% chance of happening. I'd suggest his odds are better than that, giving this long shot a reasonable chance of paying off.
Posted Aug 30, 2021, 1:14 PM UTC